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Originally Posted by V8 Fireworks
Which is illogical, no, when the 2nd-5th best teams of 2022 are all independent and separate? If there is zero difference between the two body styles, results should be independent of brand -- there should not be a brand trend of P2-P5 teams all getting worse and P6-P10 teams all getting better.
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You do know there is a brand new car right.
One of those teams is trending downwards since the start of 2021. It also happens to be the Mustang homologation team.
You might ask yourself the question of what happened at the end of 2020 and why it might cause the performance of that team to return to where they were prior.
Also - all of those teams have issues that have caused them to be where they are. DJR performance is literally mid-pack, they can't make a pit stop without mistakes. Tickford have 2 fast drivers who crash into everything and 2 pay drivers. Tickford also have lost points through poor car preparation and mystifyingly awful pit strategy. WAU and Grove may as well be one team. The position of the teams is extremely well explained by the team's own issues, and these performance issues are MUCH larger than any difference in parity.
Looking for patterns in data to support what you already believe is a logical fallacy.
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The Texas Sharpshooter Fallacy is a logical fallacy based on the metaphor of a gunman shooting the side of a barn, then drawing targets around the bullethole clusters to make it look like he hit the target. It illustrates how people look for similarities, ignoring differences, and do not account for randomness.
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Going by your argument that Ford were in P2-P5 last year, I could make a cross argument that parity didn't exist last year - but this is nonsense. Just as blaming championship positions purely on disparity is nonsense.
Ford teams this year have regularly given up signficant points for issues that had nothing to do with on-track car performance. That has to be factored into any argument around championship points.
Supercars has got some data from laptimes it is acting on - let's hope teams who do the best can win. Right now even if cars are equal none of the Ford teams look like winners.