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My own theory but I suspect Ferrari is not sure what makes their car fast and why it works. I did find it peculiar at the beginning of the year when they said they would not bring developments to try to understand the car and to me that sounded like they are not sure why it is fast or what makes it fast(similar to MB who seem to be unsure why the car sometimes work and sometimes it does not) . Ferrari had an advantage by starting designing their car earlier than MB and Red Bull and I believe that is why they started so strong
As such I wonder this uncertainty on why the car is fast and why it works has lead them to make weird strategy decisions in a desperate attempt to keep an advantage that is slipping (has slipped by now)
The budget cap probably helped Ferrari stay at the front as others could not develop at will but also probably is hindering them from finding solutions
Mattia's comments about Red Bull spending also seems to corroborate with this as maybe Ferrari is surprised on the amount of updates on the RB as they are not sure how to spend it.
Again this is just my theory
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