After 6 races (a third of the season) there are already some relevant info about who is going and who is not going to fight for the title.
I have used the gap between the leader and each rider and the remaining number of races to draw some "conclusions"(?). I have converted the actual gap to an equivalent one-race-gap, this is the gap they would have if only had one race to go (using some probability properties).
Code:
Rid Gap Gap1 Cont Out
ROS
LOR 6 1.7 Contender -- --
DOV 35 10.1 Difficult + 2 --
IAN 37 10.7 Difficult + 4 --
MAR 49 14.1 Difficult +16 --
SMI 61 17.6 Difficult -- --
CRU 71 20.5 Difficult -- -12
PESP 73 21.1 Difficult -- -10
VIÑ 82 23.7 Difficult -- - 1
PET 86 24.8 Difficult -- + 4
Rid Gap Gap1 Cont Out
ZAR
RAB 31 8.9 Contender - 3 --
LUT 41 11.8 Difficult + 8 --
LOW 42 12.1 Difficult + 9 --
FOL 52 15.0 Difficult +19 --
MOR 55 15.9 Difficult +22 --
RIN 55 15.9 Difficult +22 --
SIME 60 17.3 Difficult -- -24
Rid Gap Gap1 Cont Out
KEN
BAS 46 13.3 Difficult +13 --
FEN 57 16.5 Difficult +24 --
OLI 58 16.7 Difficult +25 -25
VAZ 64 18.5 Difficult -- -19
VIÑ 69 19.9 Difficult -- -14
QUA 72 20.8 Difficult -- -11
BIN 74 21.4 Difficult -- - 9
BAG 74 21.4 Difficult -- - 9
Gap = Current gap.
Gap1 = Equivalent one-race gap.
Cont = points needed to recover/lose respect the leader "to be"/"to not be" a title contender.
Out = points needed to recover/lose respect the leader "to be"/"to not be" in the title chase with a minimal likelihood.
I also wrote a brief categorization in three classes: Contender, who has a good probability to overtake the leader for the title (about >10%); Difficult, who has a minor probability to overtake the leader (about <10%); Out, who is very unlikely to overtake the leader (about <1%).
All this looks pretty convoluted and unnecessarily complicated, but I just want to quantify the prospects of every rider in the title chase.
Basically speaking, the three category have three strong leaders, Rossi, Zarco and Kent. They are all performing very well, but Rossi has a very close competitor in Lorenzo while Zarco only has a true contender in Rabat (who needs to not fail more races) and Kent thoroughly dominates Moto3.
Just to show some examples, according to the former labels Contender/Difficult/Out: Marquez needs to recover 16 points from Rossi in the next race to become a contender (>10% probability to outscore Rossi). If Oliveira loses 25 points respect Kent in the next race, he will be "out" of the championship (<1% to outscore Kent).
"Interestingly", in the next race there could remain only three or four title contenders in Moto3: Kent, Bastianini, Fenati and perhaps Oliveira. It depends on Kent getting a lot of points and Vazquez et alt doing badly.
Uuff!, this post has become longer that I intended, luckily it has reached its end.