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I'd say McLaren's chances are still very much alive - becase they've got Michelin and Kimi. If the new car runs solidly they can at least frustrate Ferrari - the main snag being that the F2003-GA will get better and better while McLaren are still playing it cautious with the new car.
The tyre question is important - last year Michelin got themselves into a similar place that Bridgestone find themselves in now - torn between playing it safe and going radical. Renault and Williams are both capable of taking points away from Ferrari - I fancy Williams to go well this weekend, and there are quite a few aero tracks where Renault will come back at them. So that's all pressure on Ferrari, and when there's sustained pressure there is the potential for bad judgement and slip-ups.
It's wide open.
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