An old hand answers one of those questions that keep on popping up here...

[Damon]

I've just read the weekly update on Autosport.com of their "ask Nigel" feature and spied this ever interesting question.

Dear Nigel,
When watching the pre-race coverage of the San Marino Grand Prix, it was nice to see Martin Brundle speaking to Gerhard Berger. When Gerhard was asked about Ayrton Senna he said he didn't know if he'd still be racing or not, but suspected he'd be relaxing on the beach in Brazil after winning ten world championships after his time in the ultra-competitive Williams-Renaults. How do you think Senna's career would have panned out? And how would Formula 1 look now, if the great man had lived?
Cameron Henderson,
Roxburghshire, Scotland.

Roebucks answer, as ever, certainly makes for interesting reading...

Dear Cameron,

Mmmm, fascinating question. First of all, I must say that I don't think for a second Ayrton would still be racing today - he would, after all, be 43 years old, and would have called time on his driving career long ago, I'm sure.

How long would he have raced? Jo Ramirez, a man extremely close to Senna, has always reckoned that he would have continued until he had won five World Championships. "I think," says Ramirez, "he would like to have equalled Fangio's record, but he had so much love and respect for him that he wouldn't have wanted to beat it."

I always thought Jo's theory made absolute sense. Certainly there was no doubt that the great Juan Manuel was was Ayrton's earthly god. Once, at Interlagos, I saw Fangio walk up behind Senna, and tap him on the shoulder. Ayrton, in the middle of a conversation, swung round, clearly annoyed; then he saw who it was, and as he put his arms around the old man, the grand seigneur, his eyes were full of tears.

Therefore, I don't believe Senna would have gone on to win 10 World
Championships. And if I don't think for a second he would be racing now, I also seriously doubt he would be relaxing on a Brazilian beach all the time. Why? Because Ayrton was such a driven individual, he would simply have to have found new challenges all the time. By the time of his death, he was already a highly successful businessman, and I'm sure that would have continued. And, as well as that, there was the Ayrton Senna Foundation, to which he was completely committed.

Had it not been the tragedy at Imola in 1994, how would Senna's career have panned out? Alain Prost, Ayrton's eternal rival, had retired at the end of 1993, but very clearly the young upstart Michael Schumacher was coming up on the rails. Here was someone, as Ramirez put it, "who was going to give Ayrton trouble - and he knew it".

However, there is not the slightest doubt in my mind that, at the time of his death, Senna was still emphatically the greatest driver in the world. Of course, every driver reaches a peak at some point in his career, and this can be sustained quite a while, after which he begins to go into progressive decline. This may be virtually imperceptible to the outside world, but the driver himself knows when he is no longer quite what he was.

"I don't think we'd ever have seen Senna go into decline," says Martin Brundle, "because he'd never have let anyone see it - he had way too much pride for that. As soon as he had the first hint that maybe he wasn't quite as quick as he had been, he'd have retired on the spot - even in the middle of a season. I've got no doubts about that."

Neither have I. In every era of motor racing, the torch always gets passed eventually - willingly or not. There is always a 'greatest driver of his time', and there is always 'the next great driver'; at some point the one is on a downward trajectory, the other still going up, and eventually the lines cross. Had that point approached, in terms of Senna and Schumacher, I'm sure Ayrton would have called a halt to his career before it actually arrived.

Unquestionably, though, a classic fight between the two of them was in prospect in 1994. Given that ultimately Damon Hill, Senna's Williams team mate, ran Schumacher very close for the World Championship, I little doubt that Ayrton would have beaten him, and probably for a couple of seasons afterwards, but there really wouldn't have been much in it.

Once I talked to Bernie Ecclestone about how the 1994 season might have gone, and he rolled his eyes. "It would have been magic, wouldn't it?" he said. "It would have been magic...

"Senna had appeal across the world, because he was the best, and he
demonstrated it on many, many, occasions. Schumacher's won more races, and more championships, but Senna won a lot of races, in a lot of different conditions - and with other superstars in the same team as him. In my opinion, Schumacher has never been put to the test, in that sense..."

[Jordi]

"Schumacher has never been put to the test, in that sense..."

Very true. I don't think Schumacher, Villeneuve, Hakkinen and Hill (late 90's) equals Senna, Prost, Mansell and Piquet (80's).

Now let's see who is the quartet of the 00 decade. Schumacher plus Alonso and Raikkonen?

[Damon]

Seeing as there are 7 years to go in the 00 decade Schu may not be part of the quartet at all. Kimi and Alonso though certainly. They have talent and age on their side.

[shiny side up!]

Well, I doubt either Kimi or Alonso are going to claim 3 WDCs in the next 7 years, let alone 3 in a row, so in fairness (can't believe I'm saying this!!!) MS will have to be one of any quartet you name...

[Mr V]

Old hand..... i thought that we were talking about Wrex!

Jo Ramirez has the same feelings about when Senna's career would have ended. I reckon he would have won the WDC's in 94 and 95 then called it a day.

[Lee Janotta]

Ayrton, in the middle of a conversation, swung round, clearly annoyed; then he saw who it was, and as he put his arms around the old man, the grand seigneur, his eyes were full of tears.

That's just beautiful, that is.

Jordi, I'd say that if JPM and Alonso are in the Ferraris, and Kimi and Webber in the McLarens, after the BIG shakeup due to come in '05, we'll have a hell of a battle for the second half of the decade.

PLEASE may it happen!

[flatlander_48]

Fascinating! Senna was a man of great contradictions. Compare the warmth at the greeting of Fangio with the cold calculations that reasoned it was OK to knock Prost off the track. Interesting. Schumacher did the a very similar thing when he bumped a wall in (can't remember), deranged his car and still came back on the track and crashed Hill. But, witness Schumacher's breakdown when he broke Senna's win record. Strange and complex people...

[Francesca]

I remember reading in a paper just after Senna had died, that he'd phoned his partner the morning of that fateful race to say he was ready to retire.

[Jordi]

And Adriane Galisteu said to him "You're strong, you're going to make it". Didn't Sid Watkins talk to him about not racing and Ayrton say "I can't stop, I have to do it" or something like that?

[The Other Chris]

Yeah i read something else about how he, being very religious, had a premonition the night before that he was going to die. Definately some eerie stuff.

[Big Mac]

Geez, that made for some enthralling read! Thanks for bringing that piece to our attention Damon. The discussion and Nigel’s comments reminded me of a quote from a Matt Bishop interview in F1 Racing with Ron Dennis two or three years back. Dennis was convinced that Ayrton would have finished his career in a McLaren. What do you guys think of that theory? Ayrton back in a McLaren in 1997?? (Can anyone find the quote from Dennis…I cant find that issue in my collection!!)

And Bernie’s little quote “Schumacher has never been put to the test, in that sense...” struck a cord within me because it is so true when you look at it in the light of day. Compared to Ayrton, Michael hasn’t been pushed nearly as hard. It also reminded me of another racing duel that was tragically cut short before it reached its pinnacle. Steward and Clark. Sure, that raced against each other (1965 through early 1968) but not (for one reason or another) on the level that was foreseeable in the late 1960’s and early 1970’s. Interesting stuff.

[golem]

As for the next quartet,
I think it'll be:
Raikkonen, Alonso, JPM, Webber.

However, thse guys could prove exciting with some luck:
Wilson, Sato.

[Mattracer]

Senna truly understood the history of F1 and his place in it, hence his respect for Fangio. His intellect is widely documented so the significance of Fangio's cornerstone 5 WDCs would not be lost to him.

I believe that had Senna lived he would:

(a) have taken the 94 WDC

(b) not be sitting "on a beach"- he was too committed to life itself to spend his doing nothing

(c) have wanted to reach the 5 WDC mark then beat it and retire.

Let's face it, Senna had "the best car" perhaps twice in his career 1988/89 and for the remainder, his gift of "total recall" on set up/quals got him through, coupled with cold tyre genius and straight-out aggression on 1st laps, gapping the field and "breaking their hearts"

100+ poles though.

[BootsOntheSide]

I agree that Senna would've wanted 5 titles but no more. He was never willing to compare himself to past drivers, although he strongly beleived that Fangio was far greater than himself or anyone else.

I think the 1990 McLaren was also the best, and in 1991 he had enough of a early-season reliability advantage over Mansell's Williams, while Ferrari imploded as they periodicially seem to. But he still did well to win 3 titles up against Prost, Mansell and Piquet for so long.

[Bononi]

This is all interesting. But that "premonition" thing is strange to me. He actually phoned to Adriane, but not saying that he was ready to retire.

[Mattracer]

It was a Golden Era in the late 80s/early 90s.

4 top drivers in different cars.

If anything, Senna pushed HIMSELF harder than any team mate ever could. I believe it was a personal discovery thing for him a lot of the time.

B E's statement about MS not being tested to the same degree by inter-team dynamics is fascinating. It's also somewhat true.