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Old 20 Mar 2015, 22:34 (Ref:3517624)   #1
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Veggie McLaren - can they compete?

McLaren Honda currently and unexpectedly have a huge performance deficit to overcome, can they hope to compete under the "no testing formula", and if they can when will they be competitive?

They have probably blown their biggest chance already.

http://www.bbc.com/sport/0/formula1/31942251


How would this effect any other manufacturer looking at F1?
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Old 20 Mar 2015, 23:01 (Ref:3517630)   #2
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Can they compete? Yes. Soon? No.

They've got some leeway to change their engine - there are the development tokens and they can change components outside of that for reliability or safety reasons. So theoretically they can make fairly big changes. However, I'm surprised at just how far off the pace they are considering the time they've had to develop and dyno the engine and hybrid bits and bobs. Ok, an installation in a car is different to running on a dyno but they're miles from where they need to be (and should be). This year is a write off - they may as well turn the engines up and just blow them to pieces - at least that way they can make numerous changes on the grounds of reliability, tootling around with the engines turned down is pointless. It's not as if the grid penalties are going to hurt them.
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Old 21 Mar 2015, 00:18 (Ref:3517647)   #3
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They are badly on the backfoot and it'll depend on them maintaining morale in the face of a constant barrage of criticism for an extended period. Internet age also makes criticism especially unrelenting and rigorous.

This year, no. After that maybe. But I'm not entirely confident. Their last stint they had trouble getting things together over a number of years. It's also difficult to see Dennis and Bouliers position as being particularly secure - which might create further instabilities in the relationships between the two partners. I'd say Whitmarsh is quite glad to be on this boat atm.
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Old 21 Mar 2015, 07:04 (Ref:3517683)   #4
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They are badly on the backfoot and it'll depend on them maintaining morale in the face of a constant barrage of criticism for an extended period. Internet age also makes criticism especially unrelenting and rigorous.

This year, no. After that maybe. But I'm not entirely confident. Their last stint they had trouble getting things together over a number of years. It's also difficult to see Dennis and Bouliers position as being particularly secure - which might create further instabilities in the relationships between the two partners. I'd say Whitmarsh is quite glad to be on this boat atm.
I would add to that a lot depends on how....

Patient the Honda board are
Willing McLaren shareholders are to subsidise the F1 team in the face of falling FOM revenue and lack of main sponsor
How willing FA is to wait
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Old 21 Mar 2015, 08:44 (Ref:3517691)   #5
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I must admit that I was very surprised & disappointed at how far off the pace and how unreliable the Honda PSU has turned out to be. I expected them to do better than this and to have ironed out a lot of the problems first found in car testing with the engine on the dyno.
There is a lot said about 'the packaging in the car' but again, in this day & age surely it's not beyond the capabilities of an engineering giant combination of McLaren & Honda to replicate this for a dyno testing environment?
If not, why haven't Honda got the PSU installed in what looks like a sportscar on the outside, but is really a McLaren F1 underneath and have that punding around their test track 24/7 to iron out their problems?
Although it would double their workload it would also halve their development time if they could supply the engines to another team. I can really see the advantages for McLaren/Honda helping solve Manor's financial problems and getting them to run their engines too.
I am sure that McLaren Honda will sort this all out eventually, but only if everyone involved is patient enough to give them the time to do so.
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Old 21 Mar 2015, 10:18 (Ref:3517705)   #6
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I must admit that I was very surprised & disappointed at how far off the pace and how unreliable the Honda PSU has turned out to be. I expected them to do better than this and to have ironed out a lot of the problems first found in car testing with the engine on the dyno.
There is a lot said about 'the packaging in the car' but again, in this day & age surely it's not beyond the capabilities of an engineering giant combination of McLaren & Honda to replicate this for a dyno testing environment?
It would be almost impossible to replicate a racing environment on a test bed. By just the simple virtue of the fact that the power-unit remains in a fixed position in a building means that they have to employ supplementary cooling which they couldn't do on a car on a track. There are other conditions that are also completely dissimilar.


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If not, why haven't Honda got the PSU installed in what looks like a sportscar on the outside, but is really a McLaren F1 underneath and have that punding around their test track 24/7 to iron out their problems?
For the simple reason that the FIA rules and regulations do not permit it. Look at all the problems encountered by Pirelli when they wanted to test tyres. And no matter how much Honda mi98ght have tried to conceal the fact that might have been disguising a F1 car as a sports car, the FIA are not quite that stupid!


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Originally Posted by VIVA GT View Post
Although it would double their workload it would also halve their development time if they could supply the engines to another team.
I think that they took the decision to work with one partner so that they didn't dilute their efforts by having multiple teams all running with different installation setups. Also, they were probably aware that there was a possibility that initially things might go horribly wrong, as they have, and then their embarrassment would have been compounded. I am certain that they are not happy with themselves in Japan at the moment; this is a huge loss of face for them.

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I can really see the advantages for McLaren/Honda helping solve Manor's financial problems and getting them to run their engines too.
Apart from the above, Honda are not a charity. Why should they go to the aid of a company that had just stiffed their opposition for many millions of dollars.[/quote]

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I am sure that McLaren Honda will sort this all out eventually, but only if everyone involved is patient enough to give them the time to do so.
I am sure they will unless the loss of face is so great that they are forced to beat a hasty retreat, probably to never to return to F1.
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Old 21 Mar 2015, 10:22 (Ref:3517706)   #7
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Hope they get this sorted more quickly than the NR500 bike racer, called the "Never Ready" 500 by bike racing wags.
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Old 21 Mar 2015, 16:21 (Ref:3517882)   #8
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It would be almost impossible to replicate a racing environment on a test bed. By just the simple virtue of the fact that the power-unit remains in a fixed position in a building means that they have to employ supplementary cooling which they couldn't do on a car on a track. There are other conditions that are also completely dissimilar.




For the simple reason that the FIA rules and regulations do not permit it. Look at all the problems encountered by Pirelli when they wanted to test tyres. And no matter how much Honda mi98ght have tried to conceal the fact that might have been disguising a F1 car as a sports car, the FIA are not quite that stupid!




I think that they took the decision to work with one partner so that they didn't dilute their efforts by having multiple teams all running with different installation setups. Also, they were probably aware that there was a possibility that initially things might go horribly wrong, as they have, and then their embarrassment would have been compounded. I am certain that they are not happy with themselves in Japan at the moment; this is a huge loss of face for them.



Apart from the above, Honda are not a charity. Why should they go to the aid of a company that had just stiffed their opposition for many millions of dollars.
Thanks Mike, you seem to have comprehensively answered/trumped my comments there!


I am sure they will unless the loss of face is so great that they are forced to beat a hasty retreat, probably to never to return to F1.[/QUOTE]
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Old 21 Mar 2015, 19:40 (Ref:3518042)   #9
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i think that will never happen, even with some minor excursions into gt racing the f1 programme is the heart of the company and without it they would not really be anything
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Old 22 Mar 2015, 02:40 (Ref:3518225)   #10
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Remember that Honda's engine had to be homologated while the rest of the field did not. Unlike the other teams who have saved tokens to spend throughout the year the Honda engine is locked down except for reliability changes.

I don't like their chances this year.
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Old 22 Mar 2015, 04:40 (Ref:3518260)   #11
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Remember that Honda's engine had to be homologated while the rest of the field did not. Unlike the other teams who have saved tokens to spend throughout the year the Honda engine is locked down except for reliability changes.

I don't like their chances this year.
while that is true, Honda challenged this aspect as being unfair and have been awarded the average unused number of tokens between the teams which is 9. Interestingly, I believe Renault still has the most left at 12, so both PU's should not be written off for the season just yet.
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Old 22 Mar 2015, 08:43 (Ref:3518285)   #12
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It is normal now for every team/engine manufacturer to complain about the advantage everyone else has over them but we can all see the failure of the honda engine to be even close to the other 3 units but they will improve, The ridiculous rules mean that the process will take some time and that just proves that if you introduce silly restrictions the consequences are not always as you expect, F! was once about development of engineering expertise it appears now to be about stunting that development rather than allowing it to flourish
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Old 23 Mar 2015, 21:30 (Ref:3518787)   #13
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Just a quick thought:
Isn't it the TEAMS they need to limit their spending, rather than the engine manufacturers?

I can't stand this engine freeze rubbish. We already have the teams handcuffed with their chassis designs as it is.

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Old 23 Mar 2015, 22:09 (Ref:3518799)   #14
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Just a quick thought:
Isn't it the TEAMS they need to limit their spending, rather than the engine manufacturers?

Selby
It's not quite that simple, is it though? Not talking specific amounts, but the current power-units are costing the teams approximately 3 times as much as the previous V8s, and I believe that Mercedes and Renault have stated publicly that the amount that they are paid by the teams do not cover even the basic cost, let alone realise a profit.

This is what happens when you let engineers write the rules; they never take cost into account.
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Old 23 Mar 2015, 22:44 (Ref:3518808)   #15
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This is what happens when you let engineers write the rules; they never take cost into account.
Remember that when you buy your next road car Mike;

"Hybrid - the massive cost of economy!"





Let's look at the economics:

Running 20 races,

cars of 1970s used 180 litres of fuel per race.
Hybrid 2015 cars use 100 litres.

Cost per litre $ 2.00

Savings $160 per race times 20 races equals $3200 per season

Cost of running 70s engine $5million (probably high **gainst $15million for 2015 engine hence extra cost $10million per season.

Cost increase $10 000 000
Less savings ($ 3 200)
---------------
Extra cost/ car. season $ 9 996 800

Ah, Sir you have to pay for economy!


Hand up, who is off to buy a Hybrid!

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Old 23 Mar 2015, 23:18 (Ref:3518822)   #16
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Remember that when you buy your next road car Mike;

"Hybrid - the massive cost of economy!"





Let's look at the economics:

Running 20 races,

cars of 1970s used 180 litres of fuel per race.
Hybrid 2015 cars use 100 litres.

Cost per litre $ 2.00

Savings $160 per race times 20 races equals $3200 per season

Cost of running 70s engine $5million (probably high **gainst $15million for 2015 engine hence extra cost $10million per season.

Cost increase $10 000 000
Less savings ($ 3 200)
---------------
Extra cost/ car. season $ 9 996 800

Ah, Sir you have to pay for economy!


Hand up, who is off to buy a Hybrid!
You have your finger in the dyke and the leak is getting bigger. Hybrids are here to stay and every day more and more are being put into production which is why Renault wanted them in F1 and the sports car side of racing has gone that way. All the maths in the world will not change that.
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Old 23 Mar 2015, 23:40 (Ref:3518825)   #17
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Let's look at the economics:
Somehow a paper napkin comparison of 2015 vs. 1970's F1 fuel consumption is supposed to be the definitive word on hybrid technology in road cars?

A few things that i suspect are true...

1. A case can be made that "current" hybrid technology in road cars may NOT save you money in the long term.
2. People typically do not buy hybrid road cars purely to save money on gas.
3. Road car hybrids likely has little to do with McLaren/Honda's problems.
4. Current rules makes it hard to guarantee success with 2014+ F1 PSUs.

On topic...

I am both a McLaren and Honda fan, so this entire situation suck. I am doubtful they can make this a successful season. What really puzzles me is that they are so far off. I know that there is no substitute for testing in a real F1 car and that they can't simulate everything in test rigs or mules. But given how hard Renault and Ferrari struggled last year (and that Honda watched that from the sidelines), I would have thought they would have taken this a bit more seriously. I would expect problems, but not what appears to be some type of fundamental problem that they are apparently not able to resolve after a handful of attempts. Mercedes was able to make it work in 2014 so this is not mission impossible.

That is my glass half empty thoughts. My half full thoughts is that they maybe are on the edge of a really good PSU and that they decided to REALLY push the envelope, know it is fragile and that they just now need to make it reliable. But I am having a really hard time selling myself on that version of things.

It will be really interesting to see what if any improvements happen with McLaren/Honda over the next few races.

Richard
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Old 24 Mar 2015, 08:59 (Ref:3518893)   #18
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That is my glass half empty thoughts. My half full thoughts is that they maybe are on the edge of a really good PSU and that they decided to REALLY push the envelope, know it is fragile and that they just now need to make it reliable. But I am having a really hard time selling myself on that version of things.

It will be really interesting to see what if any improvements happen with McLaren/Honda over the next few races.

Richard
Richard, having read the quite long article a few weeks ago about the all new front-engined Nissan LMP1, what you describe above would appear to be the avenue down which Nissan are travelling. They have produced a power-unit that, if they can iron out the bugs, may well be a world beater, and in some respects they are really going out on a limb. I hope that it works for them.

Taking the above into consideration, what you suggest could very well be the course of action that Honda have taken as well. I also wish them well in their endeavours.
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Old 24 Mar 2015, 11:37 (Ref:3518944)   #19
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1. A case can be made that "current" hybrid technology in road cars may NOT save you money in the long term.
Yes, you can make this case if you setup a nice strawman argument, like comparing the savings resulting from driving a $50K hybrid Lexus or Infiniti versus driving a $20K Toyota Corolla. However, personally I have done a few back of napkin calculations involving Toyota Prius, arguably the best bang for buck hybrid car out there, and based on the USA car prices, yes you can break even and even save some money if you compare buying a new Prius vs a similarly equipped Honda Accord after you drive 80,000 miles or so. In the USA, where commute distances can be long, some people can cover 80,000 miles in 3-4 years, so a Prius could make sense for them, although personally I'd still opt for a USDM Accord, because it's a bigger, classier, more refined car. Of course, my own argument in favor of Prius will fall apart if you drive say 10,000 miles a year or less or if you realize you could just buy a Corolla.. If you drive under 10,000 miles a year, a Prius makes no sense whatsoever at the current gas prices in the USA. Also, if you're so stingy, why not just drive a Yaris?

Anyways, in my opinion, Prius is not too far away from beating a Corolla in the cost-to-benefits department. If MSRPs of ALL trims of Prius were 2-3grand cheaper, then Prius would beat even Corolla in the cost-to-benefit department, which is really impressive. Prius is basically almost there. Prius is an econobox, but it's a much nicer car than Corolla. For one, the drivetrain has brilliant performance in the throttle response department up to the speed of 50mph or so, which makes Prius a nice zippy suburban commuter car, and the turn circle is quiet small making it easy to park the car in tight spaces.

You also have to recall the government regulations. Just like the European public policy had pushed people to buy more diesel cars, so does the American EPA strategy push people to buy more and more hybrid cars. In a few years, a consumer will have no choice but have to cross shop between a hybrid and non-hybrid car because of EPA corporate fleet fuel economy standards.

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Old 24 Mar 2015, 12:21 (Ref:3518956)   #20
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So is the bottom line then that it shouldn't matter how much the engine manus spend on their F1 programs because they will recoup those cost through the sale of their road cars?
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Old 24 Mar 2015, 21:59 (Ref:3519163)   #21
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Yes, you can make this case .................EPA corporate fleet fuel economy standards.
Hi JacobP have you included the cost of maintaining the 80 000 mile Prius compared to an 80 000 mile Corolla? The Honda you are comparing to these two is a significantly nicer car!

In my experience something that is not there is much cheaper to maintain than all the KERS generators, electronics, batteries and motors of the hybrids. The petrol engine in the hybrids also perversely seems to take more strain than the one that is pushing the heavier hybrid around.
Fuel is not the only cost of running a car, spares, maintenance and servicing contribute significantly to the cost.

Would also like to run the next 80 000 - 160 000 miles of Prius/Hybrid v Corolla, Hyundai, VW or Honda.



P.S. Richard, the manus were the ones crowing about the road relevance of their hybrid power plants in F1.
Seems like great expense for little economy, wonder how a 250 kg weight saving with a 1.6 litre turbo only, would compare to the current cars in racing terms? No contest!

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Old 25 Mar 2015, 00:43 (Ref:3519202)   #22
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P.S. Richard, the manus were the ones crowing about the road relevance of their hybrid power plants in F1.
Seems like great expense for little economy, wonder how a 250 kg weight saving with a 1.6 litre turbo only, would compare to the current cars in racing terms? No contest!
I agree with what you are saying, but I don't think it is that simple. For road cars, manufactures are using various methods to make "efficient" cars. I don't want to be drawn into the math around if it makes financial sense as that is a can of worm and (IMHO) off topic for this thread. Anyhow, the primary methods used today include direct injection, diesel, small turbos, hybrid and electric.

If your marketing team (notice this is not about engineering) wanted to tout your road relevancy, you look at that list and think...

DI... not sexy enough by itself, but do it anyhow as it helps efficiency and/or power.
Diesel... nobody really wants diesel F1, so that was a non starter.
Turbo... not sexy enough on it's own, been there done that, but still add it to the mix and match to a low displacement engine to cap power.
Hybrid... really the only thing that is new to F1 and maps to what they are doing in road cars, so make it part of the formula. In fact, make it the centerpiece.
Electric... Like diesel, nobody wants a 100% electric F1, so add it into the mix on the hybrid side.

My point is that they are really looking at this from a marketing perspective and then handing it over to the engineers to build. Not the reverse. Marketing and engineering might have different answers to that road relevancy question. And I don't doubt that the engineers didn't relish the challenge even if ultimately the Mercedes solution crushed them all.

Richard
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Old 25 Mar 2015, 01:14 (Ref:3519204)   #23
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Thanks Richard

On the basis that the hybrid GP cars are marketing vehicles to sell consumers expensive product that they don't need and doesn't make engineering sense!




The members of the Formula 1 Strategy Group are doing very well out of it even if the lesser teams are not, so I guess hybrids make perfect sense to the people who make the decisions.

The Mercedes system for what it is, is certainly impressive against the rest.
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Old 25 Mar 2015, 01:52 (Ref:3519208)   #24
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Hybrids have arrived in motor sport and it is not negotiable, in fact the next generation of motors for F1 will tip even further away from the IC motor. I don't say that from any knowledge of what will happen as nothing has happened but from the logical sequence of events that got us this far and what is happening in the market place. You would have to be deaf, dumb, blind and stupid to think otherwise. The electric series open wheelers is really starting to attract some very serious sponsors and interest as that is where they see the future, there was one mentioned the other day but I can't recall who it was. Next year they are allowing more power to be used if I understand it all and this will create more interest. The avalanche has started and there is no stopping it, just like the IC motor overcame every other power source its time has come and the industry is actively looking at alternatives.

If I had my way the present system would be thrown and a small block Chev or similar with turbo would be in the back of them. Cheap, cheerful, powerful enough to do the job and any decent mechanic can work on it. BTW I am serious about the motor but wiser heads prevail and we have to spend millions to do the same job endangering the viability of the series.

Back on topic, as for Honda not being up to speed, it beggars belief that they could get into such a mess but there is a factor that I have not seen mentioned. Their design lead time would roughly parallel the introduction of the present motors beginning in 2014 so they may have set in stone some of the design from early last year and decided to stick with their initial design even if they saw what was happening on the track. Just surmising of course but it seems viable.
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Old 26 Mar 2015, 11:33 (Ref:3519738)   #25
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Back on topic, as for Honda not being up to speed, it beggars belief that they could get into such a mess but there is a factor that I have not seen mentioned. Their design lead time would roughly parallel the introduction of the present motors beginning in 2014 so they may have set in stone some of the design from early last year and decided to stick with their initial design even if they saw what was happening on the track. Just surmising of course but it seems viable.

This beats me too, how could they hash it up so badly!


Jenson racing the Honda in Australia:




Small block Chevy running a low boost turbo with no wings! Hell yeah!
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