2014 Bet 'Em IndyContest - round 1 St Petersburg

[NaBUru38]

Hi, folks! Welcome to the third season of the Bet 'Em IndyContest. For newcomers, it's a prediction contest where competitors bet (virtual) money every race weekend. Also, there are special stages for the Triple Crown (Indy, Pocono and Fontana), Street King (the three doubleheaders) and the Championship Fight.

Unlike other motorsport prediction contests, drivers have stakes. Top drivers like Dixon and Power pay only 3-1 or 8-1, whereas rookies like Muñoz and Hawksworth may pay 40-1 or 100-1.

- o -

Except for select rounds, each weekend you must pick four different drivers and a manufacturer.

o- Winner ($ 1,000)
o- Podium ($ 300)
o- Top 10 ($ 50)
o- Belt Challenge ($ 100)
o- Winning manufacturer ($ 100)

The top 10 bet will be awarded only for drivers who finish 4th-10th, rather than all top 10 finishers as in previous IndyContests.

- o -

The new Belt Challenge will be a duel between the Belt holder and the challenger. The driver who finishes highest in the race will retain or take the belt. The next race, the Belt Challenge will face the belt holder and the next highest finisher of the previous race.

For example, the current belt holder is the 2013 IndyCar champion Scott Dixon, and the challenger at St Petersburg will be 2013 runner-up Hélio Castroneves. So betters will have to choose if Dixon or Castroneves will be the highest finisher at St Petersburg.

If Dixon retains the belt, he will contest the Belt Challenge at Barber. If Dixon wins, the the second place finisher will be the challenger, else the St Petersburg race winner will be the challenger. Same for Castroneves.

[NaBUru38]

So, the season begins at St Petersburg. You must pick four different drivers and a manufacturer.

o- Winner ($ 1,000)
o- Podium ($ 300)
o- Top 10 ($ 50)
o- Belt Challenge ($ 100) - Dixon or Castroneves.
o- Winning manufacturer ($ 100) - Chevrolet or Honda.

The stakes for St Petersburg are:

o- 3 to 1: Castroneves, Dixon, Power, Hunter-Reay.
o- 5 to 1: Andretti, Montoya, Hinchcliffe, Pagenaud.
o- 10 to 1: Bourdais, Briscoe, Kanaan, Kimball, Wilson.
o- 20 to 1: Aleshin, Conway, Muñoz, Newgarden, Sato.
o- 50 to 1: Hawksworth, Rahal, Saavedra, second Coyne driver.

o- Chevy: 3 to 1.
o- Honda: 4 to 1.

The deadline is Sunday 30, 15:00 Eastern (19:00 UTC). Good luck!

[Teretonga]

Winner: Power
Podium: Briscoe
Top 10: Bourdais
Belt challenge: Castroneves
Manufacturer: Chevrolet

[skells22]

winner Hinchcliffe
podium Conway
top 10 Rahal
Belt winner Dixon
Manufacturer honda

[Mekola]

o- Winner ($ 1,000): Power
o- Podium ($ 300): Hunter-Reay
o- Top 10 ($ 50): Montoya
o- Belt Challenge ($ 100): Castroneves
o- Winning manufacturer ($ 100): Chevrolet

[gomick]

Winner: Power
Podium: Briscoe
Top 10: Conway
Belt challenge: Dixon
Manufacturer: Honda

[D.R.T.]

o- Winner - Will Power
o- Podium - Simon Pagnaud
o- Top 10 - Juan Montoya
o- Belt Challenge - Dixon
o- Winning manufacturer - Chevrolet

[Yannick]

Originally Posted by NaBUru38

o- 20 to 1: Aleshin, Conway, Muñoz, Newgarden, Sato.
o- 50 to 1: Hawksworth, Rahal, Saavedra, second Coyne driver.

Why is Aleshin at 20:1 when he's a rookie in his debut race whereas Rahal is at a worse 50:1 whilst being a former winner at that circuit? How odd.

[NaBUru38]

Odds are odd

Schmidt seems a better team than Rahal.

[NaBUru38]

My bets:

o- Winner: Pagenaud
o- Podium: Power
o- Top 10: Briscoe
o- Belt Challenge ($ 100) - Dixon.
o- Winning manufacturer ($ 100) - Chevrolet.

[marcostraz]

o- Winner: James Hinchcliffe
o- Podium: Simon Pagnaud
o- Top 10: Charlie Kimball
o- Belt Challenge: Helio Castroneves.
o- Winning manufacturer: Honda.

[mythoughtsareracing]

o- Winner Power
o- Podium Montoya
o- Top 10 Newgarden
o- Belt Challenge Dixon
o- Winning manufacturer Chevrolet

Question:
Does picking a driver for the Belt Challenge bet exclude that driver from a pick for the win, podium or top 10?

Also, I'm curious about your source for odds. I'm not disputing. Just curious.

[NaBUru38]

Originally Posted by mythoughtsareracing

Does picking a driver for the Belt Challenge bet exclude that driver from a pick for the win, podium or top 10?

Yes, it's four different drivers for the four bets. Just to spice things up.

Originally Posted by mythoughtsareracing

Also, I'm curious about your source for odds. I'm not disputing. Just curious.

Like any bookie, I try to predict the actual results. Which means that I consider driver results, team strength and pure intuition on possible results.

And then I adjust based on perception, by giving liked drivers lower stakes (I did that with De Silvestro) and unliked drivers higher stakes (like Jakes and Colombians).

[W.A Trichlorostyrene]

Edit: Didn't notice that the deadline has changed, will post my bets later.

[NaBUru38]

Mmm... I think that for round 2 I'll move the deadline back to prior to qualifying.

[W.A Trichlorostyrene]

Originally Posted by NaBUru38

Mmm... I think that for round 2 I'll move the deadline back to prior to qualifying.

Agreed. Maybe just before quali would be a good compromise.

o- Winner ($ 1,000): Power
o- Podium ($ 300): Sato
o- Top 10 ($ 50): Kanaan
o- Belt Challenge ($ 100): Dixon
o- Winning manufacturer ($ 100): Honda

[Salamus]

I hope I can still participate?

o- Winner: Will Power
o- Podium: Ryan Hunter-Reay
o- Top 10: Justin Wilson
o- Belt Challenge: Helio Castroneves
o- Winning manufacturer: Chevy

[icemachine]

Winner: Power
Podium: Kanaan
Top 10: Hinchcliffe
Belt challenge: Castroneves
Manufacturer: Chevrolet

[NaBUru38]

Holy cow! This is the best attended IndyContest by far. Let me do the math.

[NaBUru38]

So, here's the results of the 2014 Grand Prix of St Petersburg:

o- Winner ($ 1,000): Power (3 to 1)
o- Podium ($ 300): Power (3 to 1), Hunter-Reay (3 to 1), Castroneves (3 to 1).
o- Top 10 ($ 50): Dixon (3 to 1), Pagenaud (5 to 1), Kanaan (10 to 1), Sato (20 to 1), Wilson (10 to 1), Newgarden (20 to 1), Briscoe (10 to 1).
o- Belt Challenge ($ 100): Castroneves (3 to 1).
o- Winning manufacturer ($ 100): Chevrolet (3 to 1).

Out of 11 betters, 8 chose Power as the race winner and cashed $ 3,000. Mekola and Salamus got $ 900 for picking Hunter-Reay for the podium, whereas NaBUru38 got $ 900 for selecting Power. For the top 10, MTAR earned $ 1,000 for picking Newgarden, NaBUru38 got $ 500 for choosing Briscoe, WAT got $ 500 for picking Kanaan, and Salamus got $ 500 for picking Wilson.

Castroneves finished 3rd, with Dixon in fourth, so he claimed the Belt Challenge at St Petersburg. Five betters got $ 300 for picking him. Chevrolet won the first race of the season, so seven betters got $ 300.

Here's the results of round 1 St Petersburg

1st - Salamus: 3,000 + 900 + 500 + 300 + 300 = $ 5,000
2nd - Mekola: 3,000 + 900 + 0 + 300 + 300 = $ 4,500
3rd - MTAR: 3,000 + 0 + 1,000 + 0 + 300 = $ 4,300
4th - Teretonga: 3,000 + 0 + 0 + 300 + 300 = $ 3,600
5th - Icemachine: 3,000 + 0 + 0 + 300 + 300 = $ 3,600
6th - WAT: 3,000 + 0 + 500 + 0 + 0 = $ 3,500
7th - DRT: 3,000 + 0 + 0 + 0 + 300 = $ 3,300
8th - Gomick: 3,000 + 0 + 0 + 0 + 0 = $ 3,000
9th - NaBUru38: 0 + 900 + 500 + 0 + 300 = $ 1,700
10th - Marcostraz: 0 + 0 + 0 + 300 + 0 = $ 300
11th - Skells22: 0 + 0 + 0 + 0 + 0 = $ 0

Salamus

Salamus hit the five bets and won round 1, helped with practice qualifying results. Mekola was second, despite placing the bets over a week ago.

Round 2 Long Beach of the Bet 'Em IndyContest is in two weeks. Have fun!

[Salamus]

Yeah, I definitely had an unfair advantage. Will post my predictions earlier next time!