Team mates comparison 2015

[Schummy]

Again this season this traditional(?) table showing who did better in races and qualifying.

| TEAM    AUS MAL CHI BAH SPA MON =  TOT   WTOT | Better team mate    |
 =====================================================================
| HAM-ROS  11  11  11  11  00  10 =  9-3  13- 5 | HAM 85%   Advantage | 80%
| VET-RAI  11  11  11  10  11  11 = 11-1  16- 2 | VET 99.4% BUSTED!   | 98%
| BOT-MAS  00  01  00  11  11  01 =  6-6  10- 8 |  =   0%   Equality  | 14%
| RIC-KVY  11  10  11  11  01  10 =  9-3  13- 5 | RIC 85%   Advantage | 80%
| VER-SAI  00  01  10  01  00  00 =  3-9   5-13 | SAI 85%   Advantage | 80%
| ALO-BUT  --  00  01  11  10  00 =  4-6   6- 9 | BUT 25%   Equality  | 31%
 =====================================================================

For each race, the first number means if first driver did better (1) or second driver did better (0). TOT obviously shows how many times first or second driver was better. WTOT is the same but weighting races double than qualifying.

The second part, at the right, shows who is the driver ahead in the team (according to TOT); the percentage is the "confidence" of that assertion. The last part is a brief commentary. Finally the last column of percentages is the "confidence" but using WTOT instead TOT (used just for confirmatory purposes).

In case somebody catches any error in these data, please tell in this thread. :-)

• VET has already "busted" RAI, Kimi is officially worse that Vettel (this season).
• At the moment, advantage for Sainz, but it is not (yet?) statistically significant.
• Pretty much equality in Williams and McLaren. Perhaps it is a little surprise, perhaps it is not.
• Clear advantages of Hamilton and Ricciardo, but not significant yet. It is still too early to draw many conclusions (except for poor Kimi...).

There are three teams not included here (Lotus, Sauber and Force India). I am not terribly excited to make a comparison between those team mates but perhaps some of them will be eventually included. I doubt it happens with Marussia... ;-)

[steve nielsen]

Originally Posted by Schummy

Again this season this traditional(?) table showing who did better in races and qualifying.

| TEAM    AUS MAL CHI BAH SPA MON =  TOT   WTOT | Better team mate    |
 =====================================================================
| HAM-ROS  11  11  11  11  00  10 =  9-3  13- 5 | HAM 85%   Advantage | 80%
| VET-RAI  11  11  11  10  11  11 = 11-1  16- 2 | VET 99.4% BUSTED!   | 98%
| BOT-MAS  00  01  00  11  11  01 =  6-6  10- 8 |  =   0%   Equality  | 14%
| RIC-KVY  11  10  11  11  01  10 =  9-3  13- 5 | RIC 85%   Advantage | 80%
| VER-SAI  00  01  10  01  00  00 =  3-9   5-13 | SAI 85%   Advantage | 80%
| ALO-BUT  --  00  01  11  10  00 =  4-6   6- 9 | BUT 25%   Equality  | 31%
 =====================================================================

For each race, the first number means if first driver did better (1) or second driver did better (0). TOT obviously shows how many times first or second driver was better. WTOT is the same but weighting races double than qualifying.

The second part, at the right, shows who is the driver ahead in the team (according to TOT); the percentage is the "confidence" of that assertion. The last part is a brief commentary. Finally the last column of percentages is the "confidence" but using WTOT instead TOT (used just for confirmatory purposes).

In case somebody catches any error in these data, please tell in this thread. :-)

• VET has already "busted" RAI, Kimi is officially worse that Vettel (this season).
• At the moment, advantage for Sainz, but it is not (yet?) statistically significant.
• Pretty much equality in Williams and McLaren. Perhaps it is a little surprise, perhaps it is not.
• Clear advantages of Hamilton and Ricciardo, but not significant yet. It is still too early to draw many conclusions (except for poor Kimi...).

There are three teams not included here (Lotus, Sauber and Force India). I am not terribly excited to make a comparison between those team mates but perhaps some of them will be eventually included. I doubt it happens with Marussia... ;-)

Max Verstappen had more technical dnf's(and was ahead of Sainz in most cases) and Sainz had a little mor luck, like here in Monaco

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EVgXOxdA8v4

[Schummy]

If mechanical troubles or any other kind of events happen randomly then they are modeled in the confidence percentage in the table. When the confidence goes near 100% then it is very unlikely that random luck is the only reason for a team mate being better than the other.

At the moment only Vettel beats his team mate "for sure". Hamilton, Ricciardo and Sainz could do it if their advantages continue in the future.

[Rindt70]

I think it's pretty early to make a statement of who is better because the most of the teams are having a lot of problems of reliability, except Mercedes and Ferrari.
So for me the only real comparison we could make today is, Hamilton is doing it better than Rosberg and Vettel better than Kimi.

[steve nielsen]

Originally Posted by Schummy

If mechanical troubles or any other kind of events happen randomly then they are modeled in the confidence percentage in the table. When the confidence goes near 100% then it is very unlikely that random luck is the only reason for a team mate being better than the other.

At the moment only Vettel beats his team mate "for sure". Hamilton, Ricciardo and Sainz could do it if their advantages continue in the future.

if you look at "laps ahead of teammate" , it tells a whole other story

http://www.f1fanatic.co.uk/2015-f1-s...15-form-guide/

[Adam43]

Schummy, what have you done?

Interesting insight, as always.

[Schummy]

Hahaha :-) nothing surprising really ;-)

[Schummy]

Originally Posted by steve nielsen

if you look at "laps ahead of teammate" , it tells a whole other story

http://www.f1fanatic.co.uk/2015-f1-s...15-form-guide/

Laps ahead of teammate is another estimator, not the only one. First laps are strongly correlated with grid position and last laps are strongly correlated with final positions, so this stat it is a sort of mix between grid position and race results.

As the real points are for who managed to end in a good position I would weight more the last laps than the first or middle ones. My fav stat in this line of thought is to count points every lap, weighting these laps with the number of the lap. I did it in the past and the results look interesting.

[Biscuits In A Red Bull]

Steve, has it occurred to you that there may actually be drivers at Max Verstappen's calibre in the pinnacle of motorsports?

[Born Racer]

Cheers, schummy for your insights. Is anyone else surprised to see Vettel having already busted Raikkonen? He seemed to be doing better than up against Alonso.

[F1 lobby]

Quite obvious to predict where the 2016 season is going to according results and impressions, I will vote for a seat change between Raikkonen and Verstappen, would be the best F1 can overcome, except re-introducing the epic V8, pleaseee save F1

[Schummy]

Originally Posted by Born Racer

Cheers, schummy for your insights. Is anyone else surprised to see Vettel having already busted Raikkonen? He seemed to be doing better than up against Alonso.

I think Kimi is doing better this year vs Vettel too. His problem is he is consistently beaten by Seb even if it is not by a huge margin.

Ironically the new table (in the following post) will show a partial recovering after Canada. Seb had a better race but his unfortunate/self-inflicting qualifying antics damaged his raw race result.

[Schummy]

Update after Canada's "race".

| TEAM    AUS MAL CHI BAH SPA MON CAN =  TOT   WTOT | Better team mate     |
 ==========================================================================
| HAM-ROS  11  11  11  11  00  10  11 = 11- 3  16- 5 | HAM 94%   Warning!  | 91%
| VET-RAI  11  11  11  10  11  11  00 = 11- 3  16- 5 | VET 94%   Warning!  | 91%
| BOT-MAS  --  01  00  11  11  01  11 =  8- 4  13- 5 | BOT 61%   Advantage | 80%
| RIC-KVY  11  10  11  11  01  10  00 =  9- 5  13- 8 | RIC 58%   Advantage | 50%
| VER-SAI  00  01  10  01  00  00  00 =  3-11   5-16 | SAI 94%   Warning!  | 91%
| ALO-BUT  --  00  01  11  10  00  10 =  5- 7   7-11 | BUT 23%   Equality  | 42%
 ==========================================================================

Kimi now is not busted! Well, he is not faring well at all, but at least he is in the same situation as Rosberg and ... errr ... you-know-who

In Williams, apparently Bottas is starting to stretch his feet (or this is just a fluke and Felipe will match him during all the season). Reversely, Ricciardo had a setback with the young Russian; if he is going to "bust" Kvyat he will need a lot of races to prove it.

"Funny" equality in Ron's camp. The car is so unreliable that basically what we see is random troubles for both drivers.

[Schummy]

After Austria:

| TEAM    AUS MAL CHI BAH SPA MON CAN AUT =  TOT   WTOT | Better team mate         |
 ==================================================================================
| HAM-ROS  11  11  11  11  00  10  11  10 = 12- 4  17- 7 | HAM 92%   Warning!      | 85%
| VET-RAI  11  11  11  10  11  11  00  11 = 13- 3  19- 5 | VET 98%   Almost Busted!| 96%
| BOT-MAS  --  01  00  11  11  01  11  00 =  8- 6  13- 8 | BOT 21%   Equality      | 50%
| RIC-KVY  11  10  11  11  01  10  00  01 = 10- 6  15- 9 | RIC 55%   Advantage     | 57%
| VER-SAI  00  01  10  01  00  00  00  11 =  5-11   8-16 | SAI 79%   Advantage     | 73%
| ALO-BUT  --  00  01  11  10  00  10  10 =  6- 8   8-13 | BUT 21%   Equality      | 50%
 ==================================================================================

At this stage of the season, there are not race-to-race dramatic changes, as info accumulates progressively; there are just incremental changes.

After nightmare-ish Canada, Vettel returns to the usual Kimiesque smashing. Briefly out of the Busting zone, now Seb retakes the path again.

Rosberg is hanging on to a small margin to avoid be busted. It is going to be an uphill fight, I think. It's curious how the championship table is so close, though. Good for the season, I suppose.

Felipe Massa has stopped (temporally?) Botas's charge in the last GPs. In the dreary Red Bull camp, Ricciardo is losing power (pun intended?) and now he is not particularly advantaging his young(er) team mate.

For the first time the surely not overhyped Verstappen has won in qualify and in race. So he has exited the uncomfortable warning zone of prebusted.

Mac team is a joke currently, random events happening to its two drivers, so the results show basically the nature of randomness in life.

[Akrapovic]

Is Vettel allowed credit for beating his team mate this time? He seems to get denied any credit for his accomplishments based on the car he drove. But he seems to be fundamentally outclassing Kimi in the same way Alonso had.

[Schummy]

If he beats his team mate he supposedly will receive the corresponding credits, according to team mate prestige and things like that. He beat Webber comprehensibly and he is now crushing Kimi.

In my view, beating brilliant team mates is more significant that winning a title in a dominant car. Gilles Villeneuve never got a WDC, however for many people he was one of the best ever. I can think of some WDCs who are not of his stature.

[Akrapovic]

I'd agree with that, but it does raise some odd inconsistencies in how we rate drivers. Alonso is seen as great, despite beating mediocre team mates and losing to a rookie Lewis. He's only beaten Kimi, but Vettel is doing the same thing, and it seems nobody is will to credit Vettel for his achivements. Jenson? Well few will rate him as good as Lewis, but he's beaten him once.

It's a lot of fun and very interesting, but when you start comparing team mates like that, it makes you question just why certain drivers are rated so highly, or lowly. Very interesting topic.

[steve nielsen]

Originally Posted by Biscuits In A Red Bull

Steve, has it occurred to you that there may actually be drivers at Max Verstappen's calibre in the pinnacle of motorsports?

and how many of them where in F1 when they where 17?

[Akrapovic]

Originally Posted by steve nielsen

and how many of them where in F1 when they where 17?

That'll be important when they give out prizes for who got their first, rather than achievements in F1.

[steve nielsen]

Originally Posted by Akrapovic

That'll be important when they give out prizes for who got their first, rather than achievements in F1.

Both Toro Rosso drivers already scored more points than Kvyat did in the complete 2014 season.

[Biscuits In A Red Bull]

Originally Posted by steve nielsen

Both Toro Rosso drivers already scored more points than Kvyat did in the complete 2014 season.

Maybe because this year's STR has better relative pace and doesn't break every 4 seconds (it breaks every 6)

[Razzzor]

The Toro Rosso has been better than the RB at some races this year. It must have been because you can't tell me that a 17yo and Sainz Jr were out-driving Dani Ricciardo this year, who demolished the 4 times WC last year.

[wnut]

Originally Posted by Razzzor

The Toro Rosso has been better than the RB at some races this year. It must have been because you can't tell me that a 17yo and Sainz Jr were out-driving Dani Ricciardo this year, who demolished the 4 times WC last year.

I still think that Vettel sandbagged 2014 to invoke his escape clause and go to Ferrari!

[Biscuits In A Red Bull]

Ricciardo demolished on occasion. Sometimes RBR put him on a better strategy. Sometimes Vettel messed up. Sometimes Ricciardo was too good.

Kvyat has been more than a match as of late, however.

[Schummy]

A long overdue update after Singapore (and Monza).

| TEAM    AUS MAL CHI BAH SPA MON CAN AUT GBR HUN BEL ITA SIN =  TOT   WTOT  | Better team mate    |       |
 ==========================================================================================================
| HAM-ROS  11  11  11  11  00  10  11  10  11  11  11  11  10 = 21- 5  30- 9 | HAM 99.8% Busted!   | 98.7% |
| VET-RAI  11  11  11  10  11  11  00  11  11  11  10  01  11 = 21- 5  31- 8 | VET 99.8% Busted!   | 99.4% |
| BOT-MAS  --  01  00  11  11  01  11  00  00  10  10  00  11 = 12-12  18-18 | BOT 00%   Equality  | 00%   |
| RIC-KVY  11  10  11  11  01  10  00  01  00  10  10  -1  11 = 15-10  22-16 | RIC 58%   Advantage | 47%   |
| VER-SAI  00  01  10  01  00  00  00  11  00  11  01  -0  11 = 10-15  16-22 | SAI 58%   Advantage | 47%   |
| ALO-BUT  --  00  01  11  10  00  10  10  11  11  01  00  10 = 12-12  17-19 | ALO 00%   Equality  | 10%   |
 ==========================================================================================================

• Ham and Vet continue smashing their team mates at the point of embarrassment.
• "Exquisite" equality between Botas and Massa. I suppose it is a bit surprising in a way.
• Ricciardo retakes a bit of control after a challenge from Kviat in the last races. Still, he does not have any clear advantage.
• Sainz has the same position against Vers that Ricciardo against Kviat.
• Alonso and Button are very, very balanced. Not so surprising knowing they are basically fighting their car more than fighting team mate.