Who will win the Championships?

[mac]

Based on current car performance and no DNFs for any of the frontrunners (), I predict:

Japan: Vettel, Webber, Alonso, Hamilton, Button, Massa
Korea: Alonso, Webber, Vettel, Hamilton, Massa, Button
Brazil: Webber, Vettel, Alonso, Massa, Hamilton, Button
Abu Dhabi: Vettel, Alonso, Webber, Hamilton, Massa, Button

Resulting in...
Webber - 278pts (5 wins)
Alonso - 264 (5 wins)
Vettel - 264 (4 wins)
Hamilton - 228 (3 wins)

If only it were that simple (IF spelt backwards?)... A poor race or a DNF for anyone will obviously drastically change everything.

I think Japan should still be a Red Bull track, and Vettel was mesmeric there last year.

I think Korea (if it runs) will be more to Ferrari's liking, though very close - it seems like a Hungary-type circuit, but with more genuinely slow corners...

Brazil will also be very close - and don't rule out Massa playing an important part here. I think the Red Bull will be quicker, and we saw what Webber did here last year.

Again, I think Abu Dhabi will be touch and go between Red Bull and Ferrari... Vettel, again, was very impressive here last year, but I can see the Red Bulls struggling to keep Ferrari behind on the long straights and slow corners...

As for McLaren, I think they are really going to have to pull something out of the bag to give themselves even a small chance...

I think they are closest to Ferrari on the circuits where Red Bull are dominant - high speed, high downforce. Such a situation bodes well for Red Bull, as McLaren and Ferrari could possibly take points away from each other while they rack up serious points in Japan and possibly Brazil too.

[old man]

Interesting piece by Jonathan Noble on Autosport web site agrees with Bernie that the new points sytem is not working and makes the case that the wide apread of points now available at each race makes drivers who have a couple of bad races seem 'out of it'. He quotes Hamilton for his last two races as an example and Alonso for simalr reasons earlier this year. Bernie argued that his medal system would be better but here, I agree with Noble, that would not be so but I also think Bernie was just stirring it
I disgaree with Noble whowever as I think the perceived insurmountable differences are just things generated by the press who have not really got to grips with the number of points for a good position in the next race. The press guys have been used to smaller points differences so that a 20 point gap seems big, give it a year or two and the poor souls will get used to it but then, perhaps writing off a few people's favourites once or twice a season is good press and makes headlines!
My view is that the system has worked well both in the battle for #1 and down the field with some decent racing going on for 10th place right up to the end.
I have not done a spread sheet of points and compared the results with this year's points and with last year's but would be interested to see how it would have looked at various points. One of the more statistically minded journalists may just do this.

[Bononi]

Originally Posted by old man

Interesting piece by Jonathan Noble on Autosport web site agrees with Bernie that the new points sytem is not working and makes the case that the wide apread of points now available at each race makes drivers who have a couple of bad races seem 'out of it'. He quotes Hamilton for his last two races as an example and Alonso for simalr reasons earlier this year. Bernie argued that his medal system would be better but here, I agree with Noble, that would not be so but I also think Bernie was just stirring it
I disgaree with Noble whowever as I think the perceived insurmountable differences are just things generated by the press who have not really got to grips with the number of points for a good position in the next race. The press guys have been used to smaller points differences so that a 20 point gap seems big, give it a year or two and the poor souls will get used to it but then, perhaps writing off a few people's favourites once or twice a season is good press and makes headlines!
My view is that the system has worked well both in the battle for #1 and down the field with some decent racing going on for 10th place right up to the end.
I have not done a spread sheet of points and compared the results with this year's points and with last year's but would be interested to see how it would have looked at various points. One of the more statistically minded journalists may just do this.

I agree that the current system is not perfect, but the gold medal is way out of being the best solution... I think the very old system might work well.

[rocketracer]

Originally Posted by mac

Based on current car performance and no DNFs for any of the frontrunners (), I predict:

Japan: Vettel, Webber, Alonso, Hamilton, Button, Massa
Korea: Alonso, Webber, Vettel, Hamilton, Massa, Button
Brazil: Webber, Vettel, Alonso, Massa, Hamilton, Button
Abu Dhabi: Vettel, Alonso, Webber, Hamilton, Massa, Button

Resulting in...
Webber - 278pts (5 wins)
Alonso - 264 (5 wins)
Vettel - 264 (4 wins)
Hamilton - 228 (3 wins)

If only it were that simple (IF spelt backwards?)... A poor race or a DNF for anyone will obviously drastically change everything.

good post mac.

i largely agree with you on all counts. The variables as you say will be DNFs, which i have a feeling that all of alonso, webber, vettel and hamilton will have 1 more before the season's out.

also, i think button may well play a larger role than you have suggested. He was excellent at abu dhabi last year (though this year we may not get to see it if he's not in the mix). He has that canny ability to pull out a big result even when he's not necessarily the paciest driver of the weekend. so i have a feeling that he will at least do better than 5ths and 6ths in the remaining 4 races.

also, i'm a bit dubious that ferrari's upswing will continue all the way to the end of the season (or at least without mclaren having an upswing of their own)...

[AussieTimmeh]

I find it very hard to predict how to things may turn out because all the contenders find ways of shooting themselves in the foot. For example, I am still amazed that Webber has the championship lead with the shocking qualifying and starts he has had.

[Born Racer]

Mark's consistency and lack of DNFs has served him well. Only one non-points finish. Think about all of Lewis's DNFs for instance.

[Bononi]

Webber reminds me of Button last season... he's managing to keep his advantage, I think he'll get this one.

[bjohnsonsmith]

Originally Posted by GTRMagic

I find it amazing that in the F1 world of conspicuous excess, that the world drivers' championship may be decided by how many engines a driver has left

I would suggest that Mr Webber is a very very good shot at the WDC, with 2 unused engines in tow, and a couple of other used ones that seem to have a lot of mileage as race winners, and other long stints in free practice and they havent blown up

Renault also seem to like Mr Webber, (Webber to Renault? ) for he doesnt seem to complain about the lack of legs on the froggy firepower... you would think that perhaps, just perhaps, the yellow and black beasties will join forces with the Red blueberries to help their customer secure both championships

Mr Webber has the drive, energy, knowledge and technology. Fighting problems he's forseen. He's the Potsie team, he's the Potsie team

And hopefully

If he does we'll never hear the end of it; I'd like to see Will Power win it.

[strider]

There is an interesting article about the topic from James Allen here.

What I found most interesting is this quote:

Amazingly if you look at how things would stand under the old points system, Webber would have 80 points, Alonso 77, Hamilton 75, Vettel 74, Button 72, which is unprecedented.

Maybe because I'm more used to the old system I find that a far more graphic way of expressing just how tight the battle is.

[Airhead]

Webber will win.

Just to **** everyone off - it's the Australian way.

[mattt]

Originally Posted by AMoffat

Webber will win.

Just to **** everyone off - it's the Australian way.

How will webber winning **** everyone off? Surely Alonso winning would do a better job of that

[bjohnsonsmith]

Originally Posted by mattt

How will webber winning **** everyone off? Surely Alonso winning would do a better job of that

Because they'll drone on and on about it.

[Ralf's Girl]

Originally Posted by AMoffat

Webber will win.

Just to **** everyone off - it's the Australian way.

See, Moff doesn't post very often because when he does he's so succinct about it.

[Mr V]

Originally Posted by mattt

How will webber winning **** everyone off? Surely Alonso winning would do a better job of that

Not in my house Much rather see Fernando win it

[Bononi]

Originally Posted by Ralf's Girl

See, Moff doesn't post very often because when he does he's so succinct about it.

That's the old Moffat !

Originally Posted by Mr V

Not in my house Much rather see Fernando win it

Arghhh... V, no good vibes from that person.

[strider]

Originally Posted by Mr V

Not in my house Much rather see Fernando win it

I don't want him to win it at all, but I have a sneaking suspicion that he may.

[rocketracer]

the pre-race demeanour of the drivers said a lot about their relative mental states at this stage of the championship.

Webber was skittish and seemed very unsettled prior to the race. He was very focussed on not wanting the race to go ahead, which i think played to his detriment once the race actually got going, as mentally he seemed very negative.

Vettel, Alonso and hamilton all seemed far more accepting of the circumstances, and focussed on their own task at hand - ie how they could get the most out of a variable situation. Consequently, i think they were far more switched on and focussed at the restart than webber, who seemed to be wearing his hat of GPDA spokesman rather than a championship contending driver.

However, i dont think his crash is the worst thing for mark, as his career has shown he gets the best performances out of himself playing the underdog. So hopefully the race loss is the spark to bring a renewed energy for the final two rounds. i have had the feeling that he's been too focussed on points and podiums since belgium, rather than the real desire for winning that spurred his driving to new levels in silverstone, monaco, spain. Unless he can get back into that headspace, i think he will lose out in the WDC.

[deeks6]

Teflonso showed he is a worthy champion and I'm not sure about the others:

Webber - rookie error
Vettel - used all his engines and still punishes the old ones when he does'nt have to - dumb
Hamilton - (Again, as usual) fries his tyres and makes a rookie error sliding offf and gifting the win to Teflonso.
Button - not quick enough, couple of basic errors as well

Alonso's tyres were in better shape that anyones at the end. He looks after cars better than anyone except maybe Webber and makes fewer mistakes that the others. Much as I would like to see MW win the title, Teflonso is probably the man who deserves it more.

[GTRMagic]

Mr Webber can still win the title. He is the only one of the three genuine contenders with a powerplant supply that isnt marginal.

[deeks6]

Originally Posted by GTRMagic

Mr Webber can still win the title. He is the only one of the three genuine contenders with a powerplant supply that isnt marginal.

Only if the Red Bull Management Circus finally make him (temporary) No 1 Driver ...

[Mr V]

Whats not to say that Webbers new engine wasn't damaged in his accident yesterday?

[dsg]

Just what I was thinking Mr V.

[Super Hans]

I think it's between Alonso, Webber and Vettel now. At the moment I'd like Vettel to win it, because the first two really annoyed me yesterday, but I'll see what I think when I've calmed down.

[AndyS]

Looks like Alonso for now. Bad mistake by Webber, Vettel's made too many mistakes all season, Hamilton's just a bit too far away and his cars not as quick and Button's out of it now unless the rest don't finish the next two races. I'm a Button fan but surely he could have got more out of that car yesterday!

[Super Hans]

Originally Posted by AndyS

I'm a Button fan but surely he could have got more out of that car yesterday!

The McLaren looked very difficult to handle yesterday, as evidenced by Button's spin and Hamilton's little sojourn off-track. A bad day at the office for Jenson, but the pit strategy didn't help.