[Driver] 2018 F1 silly season.

[S griffin]

Norris, from what I have heard, is very professional in his approach, which no doubt helps

[BSchneiderFan]

His promotion made the mainstream national news here in the UK, which has to be good for the sport.

[S griffin]

Indeed, another Brit on the grid, with a good future in front of him

[F1Guy]

Only 2-3 weeks ago, the 2018 silly season looked like it was about to blow up with numerous driver changes expected by many. Read HERE for one such article by Adam Cooper on Ocon going to McLaren, Stroll to Force India, etc. etc. All happening by Singapore was the talk.


Well... Singapore is here, and there's no such talk anymore. Ocon and Perez still at Force India, Stroll and Sirotkin still driving at Williams and Kubica's rumoured Singapore debut, is not happening.


I guess it's safe to say - that's it for 2018 then. I cannot see any driver changes happening for 2018.

[EffectiveSprinkles]

Originally Posted by S griffin

Norris, from what I have heard, is very professional in his approach, which no doubt helps

I hope he races differently on the real tracks as to how he does on the virtual ones

[crmalcolm]

Originally Posted by F1Guy

Only 2-3 weeks ago, the 2018 silly season looked like it was about to blow up with numerous driver changes expected by many. Read HERE for one such article by Adam Cooper on Ocon going to McLaren, Stroll to Force India, etc. etc. All happening by Singapore was the talk.

Interesting article. Reading it though, most people seem to suggest driver swaps would not happen, and they seem to be proven right.
Another case of people trying to make a story out of nothing, and presenting their 'evidence' in a manner that suits their own proffering.

[F1Guy]

Originally Posted by crmalcolm

Reading it though, most people seem to suggest driver swaps would not happen, and they seem to be proven right.

O', I must have misread the following from that article then.

Adam Cooper

Efforts are being made to place Ocon at McLaren as soon as possible – with Singapore looking more likely starting point than the next race at Monza – in order to free up a place at Force India for Lance Stroll, whose father now owns the Silverstone outfit.

Robert Kubica would then step up to the Williams race seat for the remainder of the season, and current McLaren driver Stoffel Vandoorne would be left without a drive.

Asked if Ocon could move teams even as early as Monza, Toto Wolff admitted that such a scenario was possible.

That article, plus many other articles at the time were saying driver swaps were on the cards for Singapore, or maybe even by the last round in Italy.

[Akrapovic]

The McLaren and Mercedes young driver programs don't work out for the majority of their drivers. Most end up in DTM as Mercedes doesn't want them, but doesn't want anyone else to have them. These names join the likes of Spengler, di Resta, Scheider, Green, Paffet and Engel - all of whom were Mercedes single-seater drivers who were tactically moved away from works drives, but kept on the books for a long time, usually in a DTM holding pattern, so nobody else could have them.

Wehrlien and Ocon could suffer the same fate.

[F1Guy]

Originally Posted by Akrapovic

The McLaren and Mercedes young driver programs don't work out for the majority of their drivers. Most end up in DTM as Mercedes doesn't want them, but doesn't want anyone else to have them. These names join the likes of Spengler, di Resta, Scheider, Green, Paffet and Engel - all of whom were Mercedes single-seater drivers who were tactically moved away from works drives, but kept on the books for a long time, usually in a DTM holding pattern, so nobody else could have them.

Wehrlien and Ocon could suffer the same fate.

Could Mercedes just be getting some of their current junior drivers out of the way to make a path for one particular Mercedes junior who has a famous father??

Who is currently using use his famous surname to make his way to F1 in a few years time?

[Akrapovic]

They could be, but Mercedes have been operating this way (along with McLaren when they were the same team) for 20 years now - so in this case it's probably just them doing what they've always done. Toto is saying that he's unhappy with the Ocon situation, which to be honest, is a bit of a nothing statement when Mercedes have a habit of "not finding" seats for their drivers.

Mercedes have always had too many drivers and not enough seats to put them in. So saying they aren't happy is just PR to try and avoid them looking like they're screwing over a junior driver again. If he's so unhappy with the situation, then there's a seat occupied by Bottas which could be made available. But they don't really want that - they just don't want anyone else to have him.

Also worth thinking about how many Mercedes junior drivers actually progress to factory seats (this includes the McLaren days). The current Mercedes F1 team has had literally zero of their junior drivers make the factory car - they've hired from outside the team on every single occasion. Even when Rosberg made his shock announcement, they still didn't move anyone in.

The only driver to come out of the McLaren/Mercedes driver program successfully was Lewis Hamilton (who was McLaren, not Mercedes). Before that, you've got to go all the way back to David Coulthard before you find a McLaren/Mercedes junior who made it into the seat for any significant time. Being a Mercedes junior driver is just an easy way to get a DTM drive.

[crmalcolm]

Originally Posted by F1Guy

O', I must have misread the following from that article then.

It depends on if you read an article looking for some nugget of information being passed on from a journalist (who's real interest is selling their story) - or look at what the actual people who were quoted said:

Toto Wolff - "it is not down to one party deciding a movement, but we need to put in place several chess figures, and that isn't clear yet."
Claire Williams - "we'll have to wait and see what the future brings. […] Lance is contracted to us, he is driving for us this weekend, and as soon as we have more information, when we know, then we will share that."
Gil de Ferran - "Yeah, I can confirm that, at present we have no other plans and he [Vandoorne] will be in the car for the rest of the year,"
Otmar Szafnauer - [On plans to replace Ocon] "Not as we sit here now. I don't know what the future will bring because it is all new, but as we sit here today, he is contracted with us until the end of the year and that is what we intend to do"


Obviously every article is open to interpretation in lesser of greater extents, and on this one we've obviously taken differing thoughts from what was published.

[F1Guy]

Originally Posted by Akrapovic

The only driver to come out of the McLaren/Mercedes driver program successfully was Lewis Hamilton (who was McLaren, not Mercedes). Before that, you've got to go all the way back to David Coulthard before you find a McLaren/Mercedes junior who made it into the seat for any significant time. Being a Mercedes junior driver is just an easy way to get a DTM drive.

Michael? Nico?

Both were Mercedes contracted juniors were they not?

[S griffin]

Well Ocon’s missed out on the McLaren drive, so Williams must be his best option. Interesting that Christian Horner said on C4 they are considering Vandoorne

[Akrapovic]

Originally Posted by F1Guy

Michael? Nico?

Both were Mercedes contracted juniors were they not?

Schumacher left the Mercedes junior program a good 20 years before he got the seat. He didn't get it because he was a Mercedes junior - he got it because of his relationship with Ross Brawn. Arguably, had Michael stayed in the Mercedes junior program, he may never have gotten to F1 as it took them another 3 years to enter the sport after Michael joined, and another 4 years after that to produce a championship winning engine (by which time Michael already had 2 titles, and had moved to Ferrari).

Rosberg was not part of the Mercedes or McLaren junior programs. I'm not sure he even drove a Mercedes powered car until his F1 seat, as his F3 days for were for his dads team, and they used Opel engines. When he got to F1, Williams were using Cosworth and Toyota engines. The closest he had to works support was BMW - he was a Formula BMW driver and a BMW F1 test driver.

[F1Guy]

Originally Posted by Akrapovic

Rosberg was not part of the Mercedes or McLaren junior programs.

Nico and Lewis raced in karts as part of the MBM (Mercedes-Benz McLaren) karting team.



Although not a Mercedes junior driver per se, Nico has been part of the Mercedes family since the very early stages of his racing career.

[Akrapovic]

If by "part of the family" you mean "once drove a go-kart with a Mercedes sticker on it". If the only examples you can find of Mercedes juniors being successful in the F1 team involve drivers that leave the program 2 decades before getting the driver, and drivers who once drove a go-kart with a Mercedes sticker, then it proves the point - there is currently no Mercedes junior driver who has made it to the F1 team. And even if Rosberg and Lewis did count (despite not being part of the Mercedes junior program), they did not progress to the F1 team due to the program, as they'd long disassociated with it. Similar story to Schumacher.

Rosberg doesn't appear to have even driven a Mercedes powered car at any point in his career until his factory seat. His entire car racing career was helped by his father and he had absolutely zero factory support during that time.

Lewis was overseen heavily by Ron through his career - he also had absolutely no Mercedes involvement during his car racing career.

As much criticism as the Red Bull driver program gets for churning through drivers at a record rate, they at least get Red Bull F1 drives. The Mercedes young driver program problems existed decades before the standalone factory F1 team. Ocon may just be the latest victim. But now that Mercedes is leaving DTM to focus on Formula E, he may get stuffed into that rather than a touring car drive. And if that happens (big if), don't be surprised if some sort of sportscar drive (probably in an LMP2) comes with it, as that's the norm for Formula E drivers.

[Akrapovic]

Here's another way of looking at it. Toto is upset he has a driver and no seats for him. Meanwhile, he has a driver who isn't at the level of the first driver, and is behind both rivals drivers. So he can make a seat if he wants. But he doesn't really want that. He just wants to keep hold of Ocon so somebody else doesn't get him.

Meanwhile, Williams are sitting with cashflow problems and potentially a spare seat that Kubica would fill - which is a huge risk. Why is Toto not paying Williams to take Ocon? If he REALLY wants it, then that is a problem that can be solved. Now, Toto is complaining that the Mercedes young driver program is broken - but he's only complaining because he no longer has the DTM holding pattern to use. That's all that's changed - Mercedes don't any place to hold a driver until the fuss about them blows over.

[S griffin]

Schumacher was supposed to race alongside Wendlinger in the Sauber-Mercedes in 93, but by then he’d already had a contract with Benetton...

[F1Guy]

Originally Posted by S griffin

Schumacher was supposed to race alongside Wendlinger in the Sauber-Mercedes in 93, but by then he’d already had a contract with Benetton...

Along with his pre F1 career, Schumacher's Benetton drive was funded by Mercedes-Benz. Hence, Schumacher only made it to F1 because of Mercedes. And the man has said so himself on several occasions.

Strange analysis going on here where a driver who has made to F1 because he has had the majority (if not all) of his junior racing career funded by Mercedes-Benz, is not considered a Mercedes junior??

The most recent drivers to make to F1 because of Mercedes support/funding were Wehrlein, Ocon, Rosberg, Hamilton and Russell. Out of that five, one is retired, one has just been released, one is looking like he may not be in F1 next year, and one is the Mercedes reserve. The other, looks like he may end up being the world champion.

So where are Mercedes going wrong?

Red Bull has had a junior team in Toro Rosso. Ferrari has had a junior team with Sauber (and to a degree, HAAS now). Mercedes has no junior team. Mercedes had a sort-of junior team for a little while with Manor, where the two of their drivers mentioned above drove in 2016. But then Manor folded, and Mercedes paid for Wehrlein and Ocon to drive for rival teams the following year.

Mercedes has no junior team, and this is their undoing when it comes to finding seats for their drivers. Mercedes has zero say in the driver line-up at Williams and Force India. They have no contractual agreement with either team - unlike Toro Rosso and Sauber has with Red Bull and Ferrari respectively.

So unless there is going to be a Mercedes 'junior' team in 2019, where Mercedes can contractually place both Ocon and Russell into seats, I can see the Mercedes junior programme closing at the end of 2018. And all junior driver contacts torn up and/or paid out. Wolff has hinted that may well be the case.

[crmalcolm]

Originally Posted by F1Guy

The most recent drivers to make to F1 because of Mercedes support/funding were Wehrlein, Ocon, Rosberg, Hamilton and Russell. Out of that five, one is retired, one has just been released, one is looking like he may not be in F1 next year, and one is the Mercedes reserve. The other, looks like he may end up being the world champion.

So where are Mercedes going wrong?

Are Mercedes really going wrong?

Of the 5 drivers listed, two lifted the WDC in their car, one of them multiple times. Not a bad conversion rate.
Strong ascertion that they also were responsible for a 7-time WDC seems a decent output from their programme too.

In the same time frame, Red Bull produced one WDC out of numerous drivers, and Ferrari none.

I'm not sure why Mercedes are seen as getting it wrong? How long ago did a driver from another junior programme beat a Mercedes supported driver to a title?

[Bcarr6]

I think the loss of Manor is the biggest problem the Mercedes junior team has faced.

As mentioned above, both Ferrari and Red Bull have a team where they can place juniors, Mercedes no longer has it so what do you do with these guys? You can hope/pay one of your customer teams but they have no real obligation and always have different motives.

So really Mercedes needs a new junior team. As crazy as calling Williams a junior team is given their history, it would make a lot of sense. They need the money, Mercedes needs to place a junior or two before they lose them.

I imagine the main problem is Mercedes not willing to front as much cash as the Russians would for a seat.

Williams have a choice there I guess, become a pay driver team and never stand a chance of building back forward, or take a promising young chap who may were give you some points above the worthiness of the car.

[Akrapovic]

Originally Posted by F1Guy

Strange analysis going on here where a driver who has made to F1 because he has had the majority (if not all) of his junior racing career funded by Mercedes-Benz, is not considered a Mercedes junior??

Strange analysis that you consider someone who left the program to still be part of the program. But whatever mental hoops you've got to climb through in order to convince yourself that you're right.

No Mercedes junior driver has ever used the program to progress to a works Mercedes F1 drive. Nico never even drove a Mercedes powered race car until his F1 drive. Sorry if that doesn't fit your version of reality where you have to ignore 20 years of motorsport history and pick out an old go-karting photo. Either that or you're not quite sure what a F1 driver development program is.

--

Back in the real world, Mercedes are just in the huff that they aren't getting their way. They want to have all these drivers on the books but don't want to use them. It's literally the exact same thing they've been doing for 20 years now. Ocons situation is no different to Paffett. Toto would not be in the huff he is in if they still have a DTM parking spot for them. Formula E isn't serving the same purpose due to the winter schedule and the Mercedes program not having started yet. So the next best thing is a Blancpain/VLN/ADAC drive in one of the many Mercedes supported teams.

If Ocon doesn't have a drive then it's nobodys fault apart from Mercedes really.

[jimclark]

On a lighter note....Nice weather we're having, no?

[Aysedasi]

Originally Posted by jimclark

On a lighter note....Nice weather we're having, no?

Yes indeedy! A timely 'let's move on shall we' encouragement if I've ever seen one!

[GTRMagic]

So... when will the DNF’s for Mr Ricciardo begin to pile up?
The team is already beginning to shut him out of technical briefings...

Story Here