Toward the title 2013

[Schummy]

We could analyze title chance with another procure I have used in former seasons: Typical scores to get a title. Basically speaking, you probably get a title when you get a high enough score, and you proably will not get a title if yu get a too low score, irrespectively to other drivers' scores.

After Monza, the score levels to be on the way (or not) to the WDC are:

"Sure" title: 216 points
Probable title: 198
"Posible" title: 144

Current scores are:

VET 222
ALO 169
HAM 141
RAI 134

So, Vettel appears as having a "safe" title right now. I cannot say it is a unrealistic proposition. Alonso has "probabilities", but if Vettel has a "sure" title, those probabilities look rather weak. On the other side, Hamilton and Kimi's points are not even enough for a posible title. They would have to increase their average; but, again, if Vettel is already with a "sure" title...

Let's look (just as an excuse to do more calculations) at Singapore's prospects. What scenary will we have after it? Oh, we are going to need a table . This table shows the positions (in Singapore's race) that each driver need to have: (1) a Sure title, (2) a Probable title or (3) a Posible title.

 
     Sure Prob Pos
VET  4th  YES  YES
ALO   NO   NO  YES
HAM   NO   NO  3rd
RAI   NO   NO  1st

In short:

• If Vettel is at least 4th, he will continue on the rail to a sure title.
• No matter what Vettel does, he always will have a probable title (>50% probability)
• No matter how bad Alonso does, he will have "posibilities" for title. The same for Hamilton if he achieves at least a 3rd or Kimi if he gets a win. BUT: all them needs VETTEL DOESN'T GET A 4TH POSITION, to not have a "sure" title.

More or less, the pictures from the two "methods" of reasoning (in this and the former post) are similar. Vettel is a heavy favorite, Alonso has some little chances and Hamilton and Raikkonen need outworldly help to think in a WDC. All of it looks like a trivial conclusion, but the difference is this conclusion is got through calculations based in some statistics facts.