F1 and Brexit???

[ss_collins]

Lot of very big assumptions being made here, fact is if (and probably when) Brexit actually happens it will have an impact on the UK motorsport industry.

There is a bit too much confidence in how strong the motorsport industry in the UK really is, it was already under threat before the vote and now is under greater threat. For every Xtrac in the UK there is a Sadev in the EU.

I think Brexit will sadly happen, probably in 2019 and the motorsport industry especially the supply chain needs to plan for that. You cannot look at F1 in isolation its the whole industry.

I jotted down a long chunk of thoughts here on Friday morning - Motorsport in a post brexit Britain

But it is important to say that until we know what steps the EU will take (and there will be some nasty ramifications for sure) nothing is certain. The UK motorsport industry needs to take steps to weather the coming storm.

[Mike Harte]

Now that the dust is settling after the UK's electorate decision that they want out of the EU, I don't think that any leader of the member states is actually in any hurry to finalise the UK's exit. They, their elected ministers or the unelected officials in Brussels may say a lot, but most of it is just bluster.

The larger economies in the EU don't really want to see the UK go because they will have to fund the UK's £8.5 billion net contribution, whilst the smaller economies who rely on EU handouts don't want to see them threatened.

It wouldn't surprise me if we were still discussing this in 5 years' time.

[Richard C]

I am on the outside looking in. I know it's a highly divisive topic, but it sounds like the UK just jumped into a dark pit on the hopes of landing in a better place at the bottom. A huge and risky leap of faith. My perspective is that how can anyone really know what the impact will be. Good, bad, otherwise and to what degree? Only time will tell.

Richard

[Tourer]

Originally Posted by chunterer

The next 2-3 years will be a red tape nightmare but we will not see the real picture economically or socially for 10 years.

Spot on - in this 24 hour news cycle age that we live in, there is usually an expectation or demand for instant answers and I don't see that happening with the whole exit process. It'll be a drawn out process with no doubt plenty of the bureaucratic obfuscation that the EU is so famous for and only time will tell whether the change is good, bad or indifferent for different parts of society.

Originally Posted by Mike Harte

One of the requirements is that they have to transport out all damaged items (that they would normally just dump) to satisfy the border controls.

That's not such a big drama though - it was that way when every race was run under carnet customer docs (as the flyaway races would be now).

There is a lot of "back to the future" most likely in all this for teams - before border controls were changed and the Euro in use, teams were able to get to all races, employ staff from all around the world and function effectively.

[bobec]

Originally Posted by Richard Casto

I am on the outside looking in. I know it's a highly divisive topic, but it sounds like the UK just jumped into a dark pit on the hopes of landing in a better place at the bottom. A huge and risky leap of faith. My perspective is that how can anyone really know what the impact will be. Good, bad, otherwise and to what degree? Only time will tell.

Division is a big issue here, and the result was rather close. People voted along certain social and demographic lines and you can see the statistics on the bottom:

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/...s-and-analysis

[bobec]

Originally Posted by Mike Harte

Now that the dust is settling after the UK's electorate decision that they want out of the EU, I don't think that any leader of the member states is actually in any hurry to finalise the UK's exit. They, their elected ministers or the unelected officials in Brussels may say a lot, but most of it is just bluster.

The larger economies in the EU don't really want to see the UK go because they will have to fund the UK's £8.5 billion net contribution, whilst the smaller economies who rely on EU handouts don't want to see them threatened.

It wouldn't surprise me if we were still discussing this in 5 years' time.

I think no one has an interest in Brexit, except for the likes of Boris and Farage (or maybe even they didn't expect this - and they have already engaged in some spectacular back-paddling regarding promises they had made). The UK contributes a lot, but it also get a lot back. Many sectors of the UK economy have been booming thanks to its EU status. The financial sector is one good example. Also, it turns out the UK also gets EU funding:

http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-cornwall-36616955


There are two reasons I see that the EU insists on a "quick divorce". One, the markets get very nervous when there is uncertainty. Two, they want to send a message to the UK not to leave the others hanging, and to move on if that's what the UK wants. Being tough cookie in a sense.


Regarding the "unelected Brussels officials", I think that gets exaggerated a lot. The European Commission is appointed by the European Parliament, which is elected by the people of each member states. That's very similar to the way a cabinet is formed in many parliamentary democracies that use proportional representation. I'm not sure how exactly it is in Britain, but my guess is Cameron may have been elected for a seat in Parliament, but he was never elected as Prime Minister. He was appointed as PM by the majority in Parliament.

Then in France, you elect a candidate that will pretty much run the country - the President - and he appoints a cabinet. In Greece, as far as I understand, you vote for parties in Parliament that will form the cabinet AND appoint a President. And in fact Syriza first came to power when the Samaras government didn't get enough parliamentary support to approve their candidate for the presidency. Seems like a silly reason to dissolve Parliament and have early elections that ultimately brought only chaos. Shouldn't the President be directly elected by the people?

There are many arguments you can make that are critical of pretty much any political system, because not a single one is perfect. I understand after the last general elections in the UK, a debate arose whether the First Past the Post system is fair, since UKIP (and I openly despise them) won over 12% of the national vote, yet got only ONE seat in Parliament. Maybe a good thing, but a proportional representation system would have been more fair.

So I think things are not that simple. There are issues with the EU system. You can claim there are too many parliamentarians, that too much money is spent on issues that are not of urgent importance. You can say they don't always seem focused on the important issues and that the EC can't easily reach an agreement. But saying it's all one big unelected body that is taking all power away from the sovereign is an over-exaggeration. It is also a work in progress that is quite new, and the EU, and especially the Eurozone, are in urgent need of MORE INTEGRATION. Something which the UK is very much against, and others may be too. But a lot of it is populism. And I think the only way to preserve the EU is to gradually move towards a United States of Europe, when Europe is ready.

Here's some interesting info on the EC:

https://fullfact.org/europe/eu-facts...s-bureaucrats/

http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/robi..._10391770.html

[Oldtony]

Interesting report that Rupert Murdoch and Donald Trump shared a celebratory lunch in Scotland following the Brexit result.
With the way the Sun and other Murdoch Papers campaigned, and Fox support for Trump in the US is there a meeting of minds, and for what purpose?

[Akrapovic]

Originally Posted by chillibowl

will there be transport delays/more borders to cross...moreso for getting back and forth between back to back races within Europe?

Not regarding the UK. Despite what some may think, the U.K. already has border control.

I don't see this having any great impact on F1. Maybe in 10 years we'll have the Scottish Grand Prix at Knockhill if Scotland chose to leave but that's about it. :P

[bobec]

Originally Posted by Akrapovic

Not regarding the UK. Despite what some may think, the U.K. already has border control.

I don't see this having any great impact on F1. Maybe in 10 years we'll have the Scottish Grand Prix at Knockhill if Scotland chose to leave but that's about it. :P

At busy airports, the type of border control can result in a very different processing speed. Right now, an EU citizen enters the UK as would a UK citizen, while there can be a very long queue for visa holders.

It should also make a difference at customs, when the teams enter their equipment and supplies into the country.

[fourWheelDrift]

Originally Posted by bobec

At busy airports, the type of border control can result in a very different processing speed. Right now, an EU citizen enters the UK as would a UK citizen, while there can be a very long queue for visa holders.

It should also make a difference at customs, when the teams enter their equipment and supplies into the country.

For all the rhetoric from politicians with an axe to grind I would be very surprised if free movement of EU citizens to and from the UK, plus of course UK citizens in the EU goes away. All the Brexiters bar one are now desperately building bridges with Europe and trying to back pedal and find a way to unwind the monster they have unleashed. If it wasn't so sad it would be funny.

[bella]

i don't know if it's backpedalling as much as it is trying to ensure a favourable negotiating position in whatever comes next. i think this is the equivalent of the bloke doing the "it's not you, it's me" speech to make sure she doesn't burn all his clothes and throw him out on the street in his underpants.

[Akrapovic]

Originally Posted by bobec

At busy airports, the type of border control can result in a very different processing speed. Right now, an EU citizen enters the UK as would a UK citizen, while there can be a very long queue for visa holders.

It should also make a difference at customs, when the teams enter their equipment and supplies into the country.

It sounds bad when you put it like that, but the teams currently cope with the customs of every other nation world wide without a problem. And I believe most of that is handled by FOM as part of the transportation agreements isn't it?

If they can cope with the corruption of Brazils customs, it won't be the end of the world coping with a beefed up UK system.

[bella]

Originally Posted by Akrapovic

It sounds bad when you put it like that, but the teams currently cope with the customs of every other nation world wide without a problem. And I believe most of that is handled by FOM as part of the transportation agreements isn't it?

If they can cope with the corruption of Brazils customs, it won't be the end of the world coping with a beefed up UK system.

from what i hear, russia is fun too. when the world series boys went by road, everything they took out had to come back. EVERYTHING. used tyres, bent bits, the lot. the queues on the russian border were long, even by dovers recent standards...

motorsport usually has a special arrangement with non-eu countries for import and then almost immediate export of the same goods (similar in the real world is loaning equipment for test). lots of countries have similar systems for certain goods to certain customers and all sorts. we'd just slot into the systems around the world quite neatly.

[Moneyseeker]

Important to remember that the two king pins in the EU - Merkel and Hollande - both face their voters next year. Merkel has apparently already met with Sarkozy who is expected to return to power in France to get his thoughts and direction on the EU and it is very different to Hollande's. Merkels' popularity is at an all time low and she faces a voter backlash.

IMO trying to rush through the UK exit in order to head of threats of other referendums is pointless. It's too late, the UK has broken the ground and others will want to follow.

Another factor is that money always talks in these industrialised countries. VW for example is facing billions in compensation, car buy back and repair costs ansd that's before other pending legal action is taken into account which may also have heavy financial penalties, they simpy cannot afford to lose UK customers. Personally after all the bluster is over, I doubt we will have much in the way of penalties to access the single market if we have any at all and we may end up with an immigration quota system some of which will be free movement EU and some of which will be points based for all migrants and this would be based on the current EU countries only, not any of the accession countries.

[Akrapovic]

Originally Posted by bella

from what i hear, russia is fun too. when the world series boys went by road, everything they took out had to come back. EVERYTHING. used tyres, bent bits, the lot. the queues on the russian border were long, even by dovers recent standards...

Haha. At least they got it back! My work has shipped boxes to India and Trinidad with computers, laptops, monitors, wireless systems, radios, cisco network phones, with them being stuck at customs. Then you have to pay a "charge" to have them released, and when you get the boxes, most of the equipment has been stolen and then denied by customs.

[bella]

you need better contacts in indian customs

[chillibowl]

thinking more about the short term and before prices stabilize in the UK, does a team like Merc which (presumably) receives its money from Germany/Euros and then converts it to Pounds pay for UK local supplies and wages , will they will realize a relative gain in their spending power in the UK...rather will they see a growth in the size of their budget?

also how will the short term devaluation affect UK based teams with a Merc, Ferrari, Renault engine contract thereby increasing their budget gap to the Europe based engine suppliers/teams.

given the size of F1 budgets, one would presume that the teams hold enough foreign reserves to account for short term market fluctuations but this is arguably on a larger scale then they may have prepared for.

and no doubt all the large auto manus are engaged in currency speculation on a daily basis so i wounder what if any gains they have made and will they filter down to their F1 concerns

[mountainstar]

As one might expect I have some very strong opinions about the Brexit in all, but in regards to F1 there is zero need to panic. Since the dawn of time, the majority of the F1 teams and associated industry has been in the UK. They coped back in the days of border controls and customs and still do to this day as F1 is a worldwide sport and no longer so Eurocentric.

Some how Norway and Switzerland have stayed out of the EU and are two of the most prosperous countries in the world. They have agreements with other countries and the UK will as well. Despite no circuit motor racing allowed in Switzerland(shameful), Sauber has survived for decades as a sportscar and then F1 team.

[mountainstar]

Originally Posted by bella

from what i hear, russia is fun too. when the world series boys went by road, everything they took out had to come back. EVERYTHING. used tyres, bent bits, the lot. the queues on the russian border were long, even by dovers recent standards...

motorsport usually has a special arrangement with non-eu countries for import and then almost immediate export of the same goods (similar in the real world is loaning equipment for test). lots of countries have similar systems for certain goods to certain customers and all sorts. we'd just slot into the systems around the world quite neatly.

Yes it's not a big deal. When motorsport teams here in the USA go to Canada or Mexico they make up an inventory list of everything they are bringing in and bringing out, fill out a few other forms and that is it. Sometimes they get inspected and sometimes not, but those that are organized in advance have no issues.

[mountainstar]

Originally Posted by fourWheelDrift

For all the rhetoric from politicians with an axe to grind I would be very surprised if free movement of EU citizens to and from the UK, plus of course UK citizens in the EU goes away. All the Brexiters bar one are now desperately building bridges with Europe and trying to back pedal and find a way to unwind the monster they have unleashed. If it wasn't so sad it would be funny.

Obviously when you restore your borders, the UK government will seek to obtain favorable agreements with other countries, only that the UK will have some negotiating power in return. It would be retarded not to, don't you say? Somehow Norway and Switzerland have survived quite well being outside the EU and negotiating agreements with it's neighbors. I think people are unrealistically panicking that talented people will not be able to move across borders and seek jobs elsewhere. If anything it is in the UK's favor as probably more Europeans in the motorsport industry want to work in the UK compared to those from the UK seeking jobs in Europe.

[bobec]

Originally Posted by mountainstar

Obviously when you restore your borders, the UK government will seek to obtain favorable agreements with other countries, only that the UK will have some negotiating power in return. It would be retarded not to, don't you say? Somehow Norway and Switzerland have survived quite well being outside the EU and negotiating agreements with it's neighbors. I think people are unrealistically panicking that talented people will not be able to move across borders and seek jobs elsewhere. If anything it is in the UK's favor as probably more Europeans in the motorsport industry want to work in the UK compared to those from the UK seeking jobs in Europe.

Switzerland and Norway are part of the European common market and pay contribution. For what I understand, there is also free movement.

It's also important to note that Norway has oil, while Switzerland seems in more and more need of a closer relationship with the EU ever since the crackdown on dirty money.

[bobec]

Originally Posted by Moneyseeker

Important to remember that the two king pins in the EU - Merkel and Hollande - both face their voters next year. Merkel has apparently already met with Sarkozy who is expected to return to power in France to get his thoughts and direction on the EU and it is very different to Hollande's. Merkels' popularity is at an all time low and she faces a voter backlash.

IMO trying to rush through the UK exit in order to head of threats of other referendums is pointless. It's too late, the UK has broken the ground and others will want to follow.

Another factor is that money always talks in these industrialised countries. VW for example is facing billions in compensation, car buy back and repair costs ansd that's before other pending legal action is taken into account which may also have heavy financial penalties, they simpy cannot afford to lose UK customers. Personally after all the bluster is over, I doubt we will have much in the way of penalties to access the single market if we have any at all and we may end up with an immigration quota system some of which will be free movement EU and some of which will be points based for all migrants and this would be based on the current EU countries only, not any of the accession countries.

Hollande and Merkel could be gone soon, but that will not affect the EU or its relationship with the UK.

As for the German (or any European) cars, if there is no trade agreement with the UK, then Bentley, RR and Mini might leave, as may many other EU manufacturers who have plants in the UK.

Finally, about the immigrants. If the UK has an immigration problem, is it really cause by EU immigrants? Really?
As for the migrant workers, I don't see how leaving the EU would change anything, since 1) the UK is not in the Schengen area (which may collapse anyway) and 2) is except from the new EU asylum rules and the quota program.

[Mike Harte]

Originally Posted by mountainstar

Obviously when you restore your borders, the UK government will seek to obtain favorable agreements with other countries, only that the UK will have some negotiating power in return. It would be retarded not to, don't you say? Somehow Norway and Switzerland have survived quite well being outside the EU and negotiating agreements with it's neighbors. I think people are unrealistically panicking that talented people will not be able to move across borders and seek jobs elsewhere. If anything it is in the UK's favor as probably more Europeans in the motorsport industry want to work in the UK compared to those from the UK seeking jobs in Europe.

With respect, you and, unfortunately, far too many of the British electorate, take a far too simplistic view of the "politics" surrounding the position of the UK being part of the EU, and also how the EU and it's partners operate. And, because of this simplistic view held by so many, the campaigners on both sides of this referendum were able to exploit their weaknesses.

The "price" that both Norway and Switzerland have to "pay" to be a part of the EEA which permits full access to the EU, is that they have to incorporate virtually all the EU directives and laws, they have to allow free movement of all EU citizens to their countries and they have to contribute towards the EU budget on the same basis that the UK currently does.

These are the very thing that those who campaigned to leave the EU want to stop!

Does anyone, truly, honestly, believe that the EU will grant special status the UK and allow unfettered access to the free EU market at "no cost" whatsoever, whilst the other two countries have to pay the "full price"?

It defies logic!

Meanwhile, at our borders, the UK already controls them. We do not belong to the Schengen group of countries which means that our borders have passport controls for all. Unfortunately, successive governments have failed to adequately monitor the borders due to budgetary constraints (we Brits don't like paying more in tax than you do in America), but we also, like the States, do need to bring in foreign workers to fill vacancies that cannot be staffed by UK citizens.

The problem facing the UK is a period of uncertainty; we are moving into unchartered waters, and the reality is that no-one knows what to expect, because it's never been done before. The sad fact is that during the campaign, one side lied about the extra benefits that would be enjoyed by the UK the moment that the country voted to leave (i.e. last Friday), whilst the other side possibly exaggerated the Armageddon that would result from leaving.

The EU is unstable right now. The Euro is under pressure because of the continuing problems facing countries like Greece, which this month needs to borrow billions from the EU and the IMF just so that it can repay some of it's existing loans to the EU and the IMF and so not default. Meanwhile, in many countries around the EU there is growing pressure from their citizens who, like the British electorate, are beginning to wonder what really are the benefits to be gained from staying as a member of the EU.

[Kempi]

Well being a member or non-member but with status as Norway and Switzerland, being a member would be benefitial: At least you have a voice in what is decided. Norway and Switzerland have almost all the rights and obligations of a EU Member State but they have no say at all in which way European policy develops.

Seeing the main reason for voting leave was EU Member State migration (free movment of people), not necessarily refugee policy, the UK would gain nothing from Norway's or Switzerland's status from the point of view of the Brexiteers.

And btw, the reason Norway is prospering is its oil and gas, both of which being at a very low price resulting in economic shifts in the country. It has nothing to do with being a member or not. Switzerland is much the same with its banking and insurance sector that can only work because of the status they have as "affiliates" of the EU. The banking sector is under attach from financial legislation everywhere in the world. And the Swiss government is trying every trick they can to circumvent their referendum on free movement of people as well because they realized what it would mean for the country.

[Mike Harte]

A little more about the political situation following the referendum result:

So, let me get this straight... the leader of the opposition campaigned to stay but secretly wanted to leave, so his party held a non-binding vote to shame him into resigning so someone else could lead the campaign to ignore the result of the non-binding referendum which many people now think was just angry people trying to shame politicians into seeing they'd all done nothing to help them.

Meanwhile, the man who campaigned to leave because he hoped losing would help him win the leadership of his party, accidentally won and ruined any chance of leading because the man who thought he couldn't lose, did - but resigned before actually doing the thing the vote had been about. The man who'd always thought he'd lead next, campaigned so badly that everyone thought he was lying when he said the economy would crash - and he was, but it did, but he's not resigned, but, like the man who lost and the man who won, also now can't become leader. Which means the woman who quietly campaigned to stay but always said she wanted to leave is likely to become leader instead.

Which means she holds the same view as the leader of the opposition but for opposite reasons, but her party's view of this view is the opposite of the opposition's. And the opposition aren't yet opposing anything because the leader isn't listening to his party, who aren't listening to the country, who aren't listening to experts or possibly paying that much attention at all. However, none of their opponents actually want to be the one to do the thing that the vote was about, so there's not yet anything actually on the table to oppose anyway. And if no one ever does do the thing that most people asked them to do, it will be undemocratic and if anyone ever does do it, it will be awful.