Probability of Win 2011

Schummy · 11 May 2011, 08:56 (Ref:2878608)

Well, the "usual" Probability of Win according to this season's race results. The last column (PoW) is the main one. Probability for teams is also done.

Code:

    ap  AUS  MAL  CHI  TUR = TOT   SS   PoW
SV  4%  0.8  0.8  0.2  0.8 = 2.40  65%  43%
LH  4%  0.2       0.8      = 0.93  25%  18%
MW  4%                 0.2 = 0.20   5%   5%
JB  4%       0.2           = 0.18   5%   5%
AO  4%                     = 0.00   0%   1.5%
Wg  2   0.86 0.90 0.95 1.00= 3.71

TEAMS  SS   PoW 
RBR    70%  48%
MCL    30%  23%
AO      0%   3%

AO means "Any-Other", i.e. any individual driver (or team) not included in the table.

SS means probability of win just strictly considering race results in this season. However, PoW takes in consideration also the a priori probability (even without any actual win so far). So, for example, Ferrari has a non zero probability even if it has not achieve any notorious result in this four GPs.

Wg means the importance of each race (recent ones more decisive than former ones).

This table would say there is a probability of 30% of a win by someone not in Red Bull or Mac. I think is not a surprise than Vettel and Hamilton are the highest ranked drivers in terms of PoW, almost everyone would agree on it.

At the end of the day, they are just numbers... but numbers based in actual data.

Marbot · 11 May 2011, 13:18 (Ref:2878718)

Alonso - The Statmaster

"You know I like playing with numbers"

http://www.autosport.com/news/report.php/id/91321

Schummy · 11 May 2011, 14:02 (Ref:2878736)

LOL!

(It shows that smart people loves numbers, at least smart F1 driver people)

**Born Racer** · 11 May 2011, 14:59 (Ref:2878763)

In my non-sophisticated analysis, I'd say there is more than a 30% chance of a win by Ferrari.

I'm assuming you mean at this point in time or over the season.

Schummy · 11 May 2011, 15:46 (Ref:2878780)

Probabilities are for ONE grand prix, particularly for the next grand prix. So there would be a 30% chance of a non-RBR-non-Mac win in the next GP.

For the rest of the season (15 GPs?) probabilities of achieving at least one win would be:

RBR..>99%
MCL...98%
AO....37%

So there would be about a 37% of a win for Ferrari (or any other team) in the remainder of the season.

I agree that Ferrari's prob surely are higher than, for example, Force India's, but it is that way because a priori we know Ferrari has more resources/talent than Force India. But I have chosen a flat a priori probability with the same prob for everyone. Some other years I have used a non-flat a priori prob, giving more or less prob to different teams/drivers according to past performances. (It involves more calculations

)

**Born Racer** · 11 May 2011, 16:23 (Ref:2878805)

Quote:

So there would be about a 37% of a win for Ferrari (or any other team) in the remainder of the season.

Right, that makes sense, although I think they are higher than that because of their development over the season (a point I think you indirectly made when discussing resources).

But the 37% is their probability over the season as it stands at the moment.

I think the chances of Ferrari winning this season are well over 50% to pluck an arbitrary figure out from somewhere (I know my arbitrary figures are not as meticulous as your calculated ones

).

phoenix · 11 May 2011, 16:33 (Ref:2878812)

Quote:

Originally Posted by Born Racer

I think the chances of Ferrari winning this season are well over 50% to pluck an arbitrary figure out from somewhere (I know my arbitrary figures are not as meticulous as your calculated ones

).

Subjectivity - v - Objectivity

But I know what you mean - I have the same 'feeling'......

Schummy · 11 May 2011, 16:34 (Ref:2878813)

Quote:

Originally Posted by Born Racer

I think the chances of Ferrari winning this season are well over 50% to pluck an arbitrary figure out from somewhere (I know my arbitrary figures are not as meticulous as your calculated ones

).

My subjective prob for a Ferrari win over the season are higher than 37% as well

. But one never know, BMW or Williams faded in seasons where one thought they could shine. That the thing with numbers, they are cold and ruthless and say things that we possibly don't agree... at our peril.

phoenix · 11 May 2011, 16:39 (Ref:2878816)

If I include my own 'subjective' view of the progress made by Mercedes and my expectations that they will continue to improve the car, I think the chances of Nico winning a GP are also much better than the statistics (to date) suggest. OK, better - maybe not 'much better'. They need to get the car working on a heavy fuel load (which Brawn admitted on BBC TV last weekend they are suffering from and took a bit of a gamble on the setup, hoping it would work.) I think at the next GP they will be much closer to the setup that works out better through a whole race.

Schummy · 31 May 2011, 17:56 (Ref:2888900)

Probability of Win (next GP) after Monaco:

Code:

    ap  AUS  MAL  CHI  TUR  SPA  MON = TOT   SS   PoW
SV  4%  0.8  0.8  0.2  0.8  0.8  0.8 = 3.72  70%  52%
LH  4%  0.2       0.8       0.2      = 1.03  19%  15%
FA  4%                           0.2 = 0.20   4%   4%
MW  4%                 0.2           = 0.18   3%   3%
JB  4%       0.2                     = 0.16   3%   3%
AO  4%                               = 0.00   0%   1%
Wg  2   0.77 0.81 0.86 0.90 0.95 1.00= 5.30

TEAMS  SS   PoW 
RBR    73%  55%
MCL    22%  18%
FER     4%   5%
AO      0%   2%

Few changes since Turkey, as Seb has gone on winning. The only minor variation is Alonso's slight appearance due to his 2nd in Albert's playground.

Basically, there is Vettel, then, far below, Hamilton and then, with slight chances, Alonso, Webber and Button. The joint probability of someone else winning is around 21%, but it is spread among many drivers. Putting it very simply, there is about 50% of Vettel winning, 25% of Hamilton, Alonso, Webber or Button winning and 25% of another driver winning.

Probabilities of winning at least one GP in the rest of the season (13 races) are:

Code:

SV >99%
LH  88%
FA  41%
MW  33%
JB  33%
AO  13%

So, Alonso has less than a 1/2 chance to win a race, and Webber and Button has a 1/3 chance. Any other driver has about 1/8 of getting a win. However, there is a 95% of any driver apart from those five to get at least a win. So it is very probable that someone else gets a win somewhere (put we cannot put "a finger" in anybody [sorry for the unfortunate grammatical implications

]).

All those numbers are based in current performances along the season, so if relative form of teams change significantly they can change accordingly. Problem is we don't know if changes are going to happen and in what direction they would go, so we cannot simply increase Ferrari's probabilities or something like that. We have to sit and wait, or perhaps wait and see or whatever

**Born Racer** · 31 May 2011, 21:28 (Ref:2889037)

It's interesting stuff Schummy, but I just cannot see Alonso not winning a race.

stripedcat · 31 May 2011, 21:34 (Ref:2889041)

Interesting stuff. I think Alonso might probably takes 2 wins this season. He has said that the Ferrari will be much more competitive by the British Grand Prix. Much like last season, they were able to improve a lot in the mid to late season.

I do think that Mercedes will pick up at least 1 win, by Nico, I think.

I think Jenson might pick up 2 wins and Hamilton might pick up another win.

As for Webber, I think he might get 1 win, due to Vettel getting a DNF.

I still think that Vettel will win overall this season. He has the best car and let's face it is driving to a very high standard. He just is improving from race to race, it seems. Could be quite likely that he takes both a record number of poles(I think he is the best at qualifying) and a record number of wins in a season(and yes, I know we have a long season, nowadays).

Schummy · 31 May 2011, 23:32 (Ref:2889102)

Quote:

Originally Posted by Born Racer

It's interesting stuff Schummy, but I just cannot see Alonso not winning a race.

Quote:

Originally Posted by stripedcat

Interesting stuff. I think Alonso might probably takes 2 wins this season. He has said that the Ferrari will be much more competitive by the British Grand Prix. Much like last season, they were able to improve a lot in the mid to late season.

I do think that Mercedes will pick up at least 1 win, by Nico, I think.

I think Jenson might pick up 2 wins and Hamilton might pick up another win.

As for Webber, I think he might get 1 win, due to Vettel getting a DNF.

I still think that Vettel will win overall this season. He has the best car and let's face it is driving to a very high standard. He just is improving from race to race, it seems. Could be quite likely that he takes both a record number of poles(I think he is the best at qualifying) and a record number of wins in a season(and yes, I know we have a long season, nowadays).

I think your views are very reasonable, at least in my eyes. Calculations were done without any "external" consideration, i.e. Ferrari resources or Alonso skills pushing the team towards the title and things like that. So, each one can move those probabilities up or down according to one's perception about how things could develop.

The proposed table would be seen as a sort of "blank" mold upon which one can build finer possibilities.

Schummy · 13 Jun 2011, 16:53 (Ref:2898210)

After Canada.

Code:

    ap  AUS  MAL  CHI  TUR  SPA  MON  CAN = TOT   SS   PoW
SV  4%  0.8  0.8  0.2  0.8  0.8  0.8  0.2 = 3.73  62%  47%
LH  4%  0.2       0.8       0.2           = 0.98  16%  13%
JB  4%       0.2                      0.8 = 0.95  16%  17%
FA  4%                           0.2      = 0.19   3%   4%
MW  4%                 0.2                = 0.17   3%   4%
AO  4%                                    = 0.00   0%   1.3%
Wg  2   0.74 0.77 0.81 0.86 0.90 0.95 1.00= 6.04

TEAMS  SS   PoW 
RBR    65%  51%
MCL    32%  30%
FER     3%   5%
AO      0%   2.6%

Slight decrease of Vettel probs and important jump for Button's expectations. Now JB is there with Hamilton in the second tier.

Ironically it is likely that Alonso would be near of the win if his contact with JB had not happened; it had changed these stats. That's the reason the table contains probabilities, not exact predictions. Randomness happens.

BTW, I think wet races should be weighted less than dry races (because of increased random events), as I did last season. So, probably I'll put another table taking in account that factor.

Schummy · 1 Jul 2011, 14:45 (Ref:2909402)

Well, let's go with Valencia results.

I have weighted down wet races (i.e. Canada) in total calculations, it's the same I did last season.

PoW = Prob of Win
SS = Prob of Win just by season's stats
Wg = Weight of each GP
ap = pre-season Prob of Win
AO = An (individual) other driver or team

Code:

    ap  AUS  MAL  CHI  TUR  SPA  MON  CANw VAL = TOT   SS   PoW
SV  4%  0.8  0.8  0.2  0.8  0.8  0.8  0.2  0.8 = 4.26  68%  53%
LH  4%  0.2       0.8       0.2                = 0.93  15%  12%
JB  4%       0.2                      0.8      = 0.53   8%   7%
FA  4%                           0.2       0.2 = 0.38   6%   6%
MW  4%                 0.2                     = 0.16   3%   3%
AO  4%                                         = 0.00   0%   1.0%
Wg  2   0.70 0.74 0.77 0.81 0.86 0.90 0.48 1.00= 6.26

TEAMS  SS   PoW 
RBR    71%  56%
MCL    23%  19%
FER     6%   7%
AO      0%   2.0%

Now a table showing forecasts about future wins, according to former PoW calculations.

CW = Current wins
EFW = Expected future wins
ETW = Expected total wins (current and future)
IFW = Interval future wins (95% of confidence)
ITW = Interval total wins (95% of confidence)
AO = All other drivers collectively

Code:

    CW   EFW    ETW     IFW     ITW
SV   6   5.83  11.83   3 - 9   9 -15
LH   1   1.32   2.32   0 - 3   1 - 4
JB   1   0.77   1.77   0 - 2   1 - 3
FA   0   0.66   0.66   0 - 2   0 - 2
MW   0   0.33   0.33   0 - 1   0 - 1
AO   0   2.09   2.09   0 - 4   0 - 4

So, it is very probable (but not sure) that Vettel will get more than 50% of wins this season, an infrequent level of success. Theoretically is not probable that Vettel continues with the current level of success (75% of wins).

Putting emphasis about the fact that those calcs are based on the PoW calculations (which are not necessarily accurate), the consequences are:

LH would get between 0 and 3 future wins, Button and Alonso would get between 0 and 2 and Webber 0 or 1. All other drivers would get from 0 to 4 wins in the rest of the season (Massa, Rosberg, Schuey,...?). Except SV, nobody has "guarantee"(95%) of get one more race win this year. From this point of view it must be a bit depressing.

At the end of the day this is just a bunch of numbers. Let's hope this likely future doesn't happen and a less probable alternate universe happens! Don't forget that "less probable" is not the same as "not possible", and "probable" is not the same as "sure".

ujoint · 1 Jul 2011, 17:42 (Ref:2909518)

None.

Schummy · 10 Jul 2011, 20:22 (Ref:2924738)

After Silverstone:

Code:

    ap  AUS  MAL  CHI  TUR  SPA  MON  CANw VAL  GBR = TOT   SS   PoW
SV  4%  0.8  0.8  0.2  0.8  0.8  0.8  0.2  0.8  0.2 = 4.25  61%  48%
FA  4%                           0.2       0.2  0.8 = 1.16  17%  14%
LH  4%  0.2       0.8       0.2                     = 0.88  13%  11%
JB  4%       0.2                      0.8           = 0.50   7%   6%
MW  4%                 0.2                          = 0.15   2%   3%
AO  4%                                              = 0.00   0%   0.9%
Wg  2   0.66 0.70 0.74 0.77 0.81 0.86 0.45 0.96 1.00= 6.95

TEAMS  SS   PoW 
RBR    63%  51%
MCL    20%  17%
FER    17%  15%
AO      0%   1.8%

The obvious upgrade is Alonso is now the second most probable winner. Vettel and Red Bull have downgrade their probability a bit, but they keep an important advantage. Ferrari now is almost at the level of McLaren in terms of PoW.

The race was mostly a dry race, that's the reason it has been weigthed as a "normal" race (Canada has been the only wet race so far).

In the former table (after Valencia, before FIA new norms), Alonso was expected to get 0 to 2 wins in the remaining of the season. Well, he has got already one, but, more importantly, his PoW has increased and now his expectations are higher.

**GTRMagic** · 11 Jul 2011, 00:05 (Ref:2924849)

Your stats dont take into account team orders... and their misuse..

Schummy · 11 Jul 2011, 17:56 (Ref:2925180)

Quote:

Originally Posted by GTRMagic

Your stats dont take into account team orders... and their misuse..

In an explicit way there is not any parameter to account for the "level of team order" (team orders can be more or less severe, depending on temas and circumstances). However, it is not very important because implicitly the model account for it and currently it only would change Webber winning probability in special contexts (basically when Mark could win and Seb is 2nd).

For example, in Silverstone Webber apparently was negated of a potential 2nd position, it will decrease his future PoW (because he will not have the score for 2nd), so team order *impacts" on Webber PoW. On the other side, Vettel probably has been gifted with a second position, it will increase a bit his PoW. In short, team orders will have increased PoW for Seb and decreased for Mark.

This (admittedly simplistic) model accounts for team order that had any impact in race results, but doesn't account it as an a priori factor.

Schummy · 30 Jul 2011, 00:03 (Ref:2933100)

Updating the tables after Silverstone and Nurburgring.

Code:

    ap  AUS  MAL  CHI  TUR  SPA  MON  CANw VAL  GBR  GER = TOT   SS   PoW
SV  4%  0.8  0.8  0.2  0.8  0.8  0.8  0.2  0.8  0.2      = 4.02  53%  43%
LH  4%  0.2       0.8       0.2                      0.8 = 1.64  22%  18%
JB  4%       0.2                      0.8                = 0.48   6%   6%
FA  4%                           0.2       0.2  0.8  0.2 = 1.32  17%  15%
MW  4%                 0.2                               = 0.14   2%   2%
AO  4%                                                   = 0.00   0%   0.8%
Wg  2   0.63 0.66 0.70 0.74 0.77 0.81 0.43 0.90 0.95 1.00= 7.60

TEAMS  SS   PoW 
RBR    55%  45%
MCL    28%  24%
FER    17%  16%
AO      0%   1.6%

    CW   EFW    ETW     IFW     ITW
SV   6   3.87   9.87   1 - 6   7 -12
LH   2   1.62   3.62   0 - 4   2 - 6
JB   1   0.54   1.54   0 - 2   1 - 3
FA   1   1.35   2.35   0 - 3   1 - 4
MW   0   0.18   0.18   0 - 1   0 - 1
AO   0   1.37   1.37   0 - 3   0 - 3

The meaning of those strange tables are as in a former post after Valencia, so let me to save the explanations for once.

After those two races, Alonso naturally has increased his chances. Anyway Vettel is well above (43%) of the rest of the field; Hamilton (18%) and Alonso (15%) are in a second tier. Button (6%) and Webber (2%) are further away.

In the rest of the season, Vettel will win at least one more GP but it's expected he will get 4 wins. Hamilton or Alonso are expected to win 1 or 2 future GPs. It's also expected than "surprise" drivers win 1 or 2 GPs.

Interestingly the minimum number of wins in the season for Vettel (7) is above the maximum for Hamilton (6). So, whatever happens with the title it is forecasted that is very likely Vettel ends the year as the more winning driver anyway.

Marbot · 30 Jul 2011, 00:10 (Ref:2933104)

I wonder what the odds are on Button suffering yet another mechanical failure?

Schummy · 30 Jul 2011, 03:20 (Ref:2933143)

101%

(It's a conspiracy thing, Dr. Marko works for McLaren as well and he doesn't like Jenson [but he likes Michibata, for some reason]) {Probably I have to leave the LSD}

**Aysedasi** · 30 Jul 2011, 15:42 (Ref:2933401)

Can we have a thread on the probability of anyone watching a win live on the tele..........?

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