Will Lewis Hamilton ever win another F1 WDC?

[chillibowl]

ah the old point structure! for the last half of that season Kimi either won or at worst was on the podium. those last seven races of the season he made everyone look inconsistent.

but the points dont tell the whole story inside Mclaren. how a rookie was able to ride out that mess without crumbling is beyond me.

[beau1]

Originally Posted by chillibowl

ah the old point structure! for the last half of that season Kimi either won or at worst was on the podium. those last seven races of the season he made everyone look inconsistent.

but the points dont tell the whole story inside Mclaren. how a rookie was able to ride out that mess without crumbling is beyond me.

Hamilton did the same thing as Kimi but at the start of the season. Didn't he have 7 podiums in the first seven races?

[beau1]

Originally Posted by Knowlesy

That was my best yet.

But seriously it is impossible to argue with someone who claims Hamilton had an inconsistent 2007 season. We can justifiably argue either way about other seasons but in this instance you are utterly wrong. Painfully so.

The stats say you're wrong though. He did have an inconsistent second half of the season conpared with his rivals.

[Knowlesy]

Well the stats say that Michael Schumacher was more than twice as good as Alain Prost, think I'll be ignoring them thanks very much.

[Adam43]

Stat me up!

[chillibowl]

Originally Posted by beau1

Hamilton did the same thing as Kimi but at the start of the season. Didn't he have 7 podiums in the first seven races?

now that you mention that i actually think it was 9 podiums in 9 races to start the season. so i guess better than Kimi's run but its how you finish.

which i guess was your point. LH did better in the 1st half then in the 2nd half of the season.

[Adam43]

Originally Posted by chillibowl

now that you mention that i actually think it was 9 podiums in 9 races to start the season. so i guess better than Kimi's run but its how you finish.

Of course if he hadn't achieved that then he would have been so inconsistent!

[Knowlesy]

Originally Posted by chillibowl

now that you mention that i actually think it was 9 podiums in 9 races to start the season. so i guess better than Kimi's run but its how you finish.

which i guess was your point. LH did better in the 1st half then in the 2nd half of the season.

His actual point was that Hamilton had an inconsistent 2007 as a whole although this seemed to get quietly dropped.

[beau1]

Originally Posted by Knowlesy

His actual point was that Hamilton had an inconsistent 2007 as a whole although this seemed to get quietly dropped.

Actually my point from the start was that he doesn't have good second halves. I think Born Racer then said he was consistent in 2007 and I replied with the breakdown of the 2007 season.

[chillibowl]

the second half of this thread harder to keep up with than the first half!

[Marbot]

Wasn't 2007 the season where McLaren gifted a Ferrari driver the championship, and also an outstanding example of why two supposedly 'star' drivers should not be put together in one team?

A consistently wrong strategy, as it proved to be.

[Born Racer]

Lewis.beat Fernando in the 2007 championship, so how could he have been more inconsistent?

[beau1]

Originally Posted by Born Racer

Lewis.beat Fernando in the 2007 championship, so how could he have been more inconsistent?

Quite easily. Consistency and success do not have to go hand in hand for each factor to apply. If a driver wins 8 races but then retires from the other 8 it shows inconsistency. They could still win the championship but it doesn't mean they were consistent.

On the other hand, if a driver finishes tenth at every race they can be classed as consistent but had no chance at the championship.

Hamilton was consistently good the first half of 2007; in the second half his season was much more mixed. Hamilton hit a peak and then fell from it; in other words the opposite of consistency.
The other two title contenders were more consistent than Hamilton as the season went on. Alonso arguably hit a peak too but was still more consistent than Hamilton in the latter half of the season. Raikkonen actually improved in the second half, which saw him win the championship and therefore peaked later.

[Born Racer]

A season is not the second half. All the spread of points count the same at different Grands Prix, so Hamilton was more consistent over the season, which is what counts. Of course, both fell short of the ultimate prize, but he still finished a smidgin ahead of Alonso.

And we haven't even got onto maybe lauding him at least a tad for the fact it was his debut season (just saying).

[beau1]

Originally Posted by Born Racer

A season is not the second half. All the spread of points count the same at different Grands Prix, so Hamilton was more consistent over the season, which is what counts. Of course, both fell short of the ultimate prize, but he still finished a smidgin ahead of Alonso.

Yes, and my original point was that Hamilton has poor second halves of seasons which cost him the 2007 championship and almost the 2008 championship.

He has a history of losing consistency come the three-quarter point of the season.

The fact that it was his debut season doesn't really enter into the debate as up until 2011 he was still having poor second halves of the season. Saying that I have already said he had a great debut season (just saying)

Jacques Villeneuve had a fantastic first two seasons in Formula One then made some silly decisions and lost focus. Hamilton could have easily gone the same way but he's seems to have sorted his head out over the last season or two. Does this mean he might get another championship? Who knows? I refer you to my original post on the matter. It is looking unlikely at the moment though.

[Born Racer]

There is some history of his second halves being worse than his first, I will say that, but as you say, he seems to have resolved his problems and 'sorted his head out', so I see no reason for that form to be repeated any more than it could anyone else.

Hamilton having comparatively worse second halves to the season, by which I mean compared to his first halves rather than compared to other drivers (although I'm hardly convinced this is as big a thing as you make out) does not make him less likely to win a championship than a slow burner driver who takes a while to get going (someone like, dare I say it, Vettel).

Originally Posted by beau1

he seems to have sorted his head out over the last season or two. Does this mean he might get another championship? Who knows? I refer you to my original post on the matter. It is looking unlikely at the moment though.

I don't see how it is unlikely. At the moment, he's in the championship hunt and the Mercedes looks decent.

With these close drivers' championships we've been having (and cars pretty close on pace to each other) in recent years, Hamilton could "do a Raikkonen" and do something like he did in 2012.

[beau1]

Originally Posted by Born Racer

There is some history of his second halves being worse than his first, I will say that, but as you say, he seems to have resolved his problems and 'sorted his head out', so I see no reason for that form to be repeated any more than it could anyone else.

Hamilton having comparatively worse second halves to the season, by which I mean compared to his first halves rather than compared to other drivers (although I'm hardly convinced this is as big a thing as you make out) does not make him less likely to win a championship than a slow burner driver who takes a while to get going (someone like, dare I say it, Vettel).

At the end of the day though; this is the whole reason we are having this discussion. He hasn't won the championship since 2008 and could have had two more championships but was inconsistent and lost focus at the end of the season.

He had the chance to win those championships and lost them himself; those are the facts and that is what the discussion is all about. It doesn't mean anyone is being unfair towards Hamilton; we are talking about exactly what happened and backing it up with statistics.

He's had one year and has sorted his head out but it doesn't mean the issue is resolved. You could say much the same about 2009 and we all know what happened to Hamilton in 2010 and 2011.

I don't see how it is unlikely. At the moment, he's in the championship hunt and the Mercedes looks decent.

With these close drivers' championships we've been having (and cars pretty close on pace to each other) in recent years, Hamilton could "do a Raikkonen" and do something like he did in 2012.

Personally I don't think the Mercedes looks any better than it did this time last year. Don't forget that last year they looked quick; were setting podium standing pace and had reliability problems then won in China and everything went backwards.
On that basis I think it is unlikely especially when we consider that Ferrari and McLaren have a history of improving as seasons go on. Mercedes are currently on the same path as they were last year with maybe slightly better reliability. The history of Brawn/Mercedes is that they start well and then go backwards so yes, I still think it is unlikely.

He could do a Raikkonen as you say but it seems unlikely; China will tell us a lot in that respect.

[eps]

I'll agree the Brawn/Merc have had a history of going backwards, or the others have accelerated past and away from them. Their car looks slightly stronger and more able this season than in the past 2 seasons, or perhaps that's something to do with Lewis being in the team and possibly other backroom staff who have joined?

There was an interesting article on JAonF1 which detailed the interlink suspension setups that Lotus and Mercedes have in place, which should in theory, allow both their cars to be easier on the tyres, but I suspect that it's only really Lotus who have a decent system in place as the Mercs seem to still be a little hard on their tyres.

China will hopefully see a truer representation of the Season pace and we'll see cars and drivers finishing in their more normal positions, whatever that means.

McLaren seem to have used the 3 week break wisely and as we know they're realistically going through the same problems that Ferrari did last season, but Ferrari had some decent luck last year, whereas they seem to have the opposite this season, but at least Massa seems more focussed this season, from the start.

I'm just not sure about Lewis challenging for top honours and by that I mean the WDC. Of course 2014 is the big possibility for Mercedes, but we've still got most of 2013 to go through first and it's a long old season!

[Razzzor]

Mercedes didn't have both drivers closing in and pushing the leaders at this time last year. They had a fluke China, and were strong at Monaco, and that was it. So I'd say they're better this year than last, but it's a bit early to tell anyway.

As for Hamilton fading in the seconds halfs? I don't know, never really thought about it, but if he did, he doesn't anymore, or at least not last year. He was as strong as ever at the end of last season - just needed better reliability.

[eps]

Originally Posted by Razzzor

Mercedes didn't have both drivers closing in and pushing the leaders at this time last year. They had a fluke China, and were strong at Monaco, and that was it. So I'd say they're better this year than last, but it's a bit early to tell anyway.

As for Hamilton fading in the seconds halfs? I don't know, never really thought about it, but if he did, he doesn't anymore, or at least not last year. He was as strong as ever at the end of last season - just needed better reliability.

Lewis has definitely changed, for the better.