GM gone by the end of the month?

[GTRMagic]

VW Commodore??

A Passat-based replacement?

They could do worse!

[mountainstar]

Originally Posted by cavvy

Mountainstar, I understand the UAW problem doesnt relate to the pay rate ($/hr) its the benefits package at GM.
The average age for a GM UAW member is 53, compared to 30 in the Toyota plants.

The problem of Chapter 11 is market research claiming no one would buy a car from a bankrupt car maker.

Whats easily saleable from the GM portfolio - didnt Penske take Allison & Detroit Diesel some years back, Terex has been mentioned.

GMH? If GM go, the asset will be sold as a going concern or broken up & sold at asset realisation prices (as Rover & MG a couple of years back).

As I said it's the entitlements like pensions, health care, insurance, etc. It's an unsustainable system when people work for 25 years, then collect a pension for the next 30-40 years not to mention the healthcare costs. The numbers don't add up and never will.

The other issue is the UAW is inflexible when it comes to shifting production around or making changes on the assembly line.

Plenty of companies have used Chapter 11 to reorganize. Most of the large airlines went bust after 9/11 and reorganized under Chapter 11. The airlines have the same problem with huge entitlement and union costs. It doesn't mean the business is closing, just that the company has protection from debt collection and can restructure the business. How much impact it would have on sales? Sales are already bad so I don't know how much worse it could be and all the bad press is already out there.

Hummer is up for sale and I think Saab is going. Another option would be for GM to divest itself of Holden, Vauxhall, Opel, GM China, GM in South America, etc.

Ultimately I believe a sale of assets or bailout money is just throwing good money after bad and doesn't correct the basic organizational, logistical and managerial problems these companies have. It only delays the train wreck for another few months.

[Oldtony]

The other advantage of Chapter 11 is that it gives the oportunity to get rid of the IGEC (Incompetent Greedy Executive Club) as well as the UAW. And without Golden Parachutes.
Let's hope the US bites the bullet and a new and efficient US auto industry can grow from the mess. Certainly people might be reluctant to buy from a bankrupt dealer at full price, but offer people a "going broke" clearance sale and watch them jump in to grab a bargain. Stock could be cleared rapidly.
In Australia I think both Ford and Holden would benefit from the lifting of the "dead hand"of Detroit.

[cavvy]

Originally Posted by Oldtony

The other advantage of Chapter 11 is that it gives the oportunity to get rid of the IGEC (Incompetent Greedy Executive Club) as well as the UAW. And without Golden Parachutes.
Let's hope the US bites the bullet and a new and efficient US auto industry can grow from the mess. Certainly people might be reluctant to buy from a bankrupt dealer at full price, but offer people a "going broke" clearance sale and watch them jump in to grab a bargain. Stock could be cleared rapidly.
In Australia I think both Ford and Holden would benefit from the lifting of the "dead hand"of Detroit.

Overnight George W has stepped up to the plate to make sure the problem is on Barry Obama's check list day #1.

[dsg]

Originally Posted by bluesport

We may see toyota in V8 supercars yet!......the toyota commodore V8 supercar owned by Tom Ralkinshaw.

Or not.

http://www.news.com.au/business/stor...27-462,00.html

[GTRMagic]

Opel for sale??

If Fiat buys Opel, would they take Holden too?

[xrystl]

Originally Posted by GTRMagic

Opel for sale??

If Fiat buys Opel, would they take Holden too?

Problem being is that with the state of the global economy , no one seems to have the $$$ to buy anyone out - GM has no money at all , Ford is offloading all it can - Chrysler has no money - Fiat is near broke (includes the Italian Govt) - The German Government is not bailing out any private enterprises.
Those companies that have no money are going to be that way for years to come (probably decades) as the interest on borrowed funds accumulates even in bad times .
Probably the only company with the nous and resources to buy Opel is Volkswagen - and if they were to, there would be lots of jobs shed because to many models are in competition with each other same as with Fiat.
In all it looks to be a pretty bloody grim future for the car industry as a whole for some time to come .

[mountainstar]

Originally Posted by GTRMagic

Opel for sale??

If Fiat buys Opel, would they take Holden too?

Aint gonna happen. I think Fiat has their hands full with this Chrysler deal in the USA.

GM is shutting it's factories in the USA for nine weeks this summer.

Here in the USA car dealerships are closing all over the place. I've driven past quite a few empty and closed ones recently. And the ones that are open are jammed with cars. I believe in 2010 you will still be able to purchase a new 2008 model, there is so much excess inventory.

I think it is inevitable that a bankruptcy with GM is gonna happen. However I don't believe it will be liquidation rather reorganization which is essential.

GM has extensive foreign holdings so how much a bankruptcy here is going to affect overseas operations it's not clear yet.

[duke_toaster]

Originally Posted by mountainstar

Aint gonna happen. I think Fiat has their hands full with this Chrysler deal in the USA.

GM is shutting it's factories in the USA for nine weeks this summer.

Here in the USA car dealerships are closing all over the place. I've driven past quite a few empty and closed ones recently. And the ones that are open are jammed with cars. I believe in 2010 you will still be able to purchase a new 2008 model, there is so much excess inventory.

I think it is inevitable that a bankruptcy with GM is gonna happen. However I don't believe it will be liquidation rather reorganization which is essential.

GM has extensive foreign holdings so how much a bankruptcy here is going to affect overseas operations it's not clear yet.

If I remember correctly it's the US operation that is losing money hand over fist, but apart from that GM isn't doing that bad. The issue is that the US part is large and losing lots of money - as if the staff toilets used fifty pound notes rather than Andrex. Outside the US, the other things could be worth buying should the poo hit the fan. Inside the US, some parts might be picked up whole but I predict that there will be major issues.

[mountainstar]

Originally Posted by duke_toaster

If I remember correctly it's the US operation that is losing money hand over fist, but apart from that GM isn't doing that bad. The issue is that the US part is large and losing lots of money - as if the staff toilets used fifty pound notes rather than Andrex. Outside the US, the other things could be worth buying should the poo hit the fan. Inside the US, some parts might be picked up whole but I predict that there will be major issues.

The problem GM north america has is:

1. Too many legacy health care and pension costs. Giving people pensions for 40 years for only working 20 years, well even a third grader can do that math. Viagra for instance costs GM about $18 million a year.

2. Too many dealers. GM sells the same # of cars in the USA as Toyota. Toyota has around 1300 dealers, GM 6000 dealers.

3. Too many brands and duplication. Chevy truck and a GMC truck, what's the difference? Almost none.

4. Quality sucked for too long. When you **** customers off over a generation when quality is poor compared to competition, people are not going to come back to you.

5. Too much junk. If the quality wasn't bad enough, building uncompetitive cars doesn't help either.

6. The united auto workers union. Once a upon a time when society was less mobile and working conditions poor, unions made sense. Now unions like the UAW are bureaucratic organizations that exist for their own profitable benefit to support their own bureaucracy.

[Forda]

Holden to lose $1 billion a year

Holden, which has not made a profit since 2004...

[fomoco]

Originally Posted by Forda

Holden to lose $1 billion a year

As a Ford supporter , this is bad news.

1) AUstralian Automovie engineering doesn't get shown to the world
2) Not only GMH people out of work, but supporing industries that supply are also lost.
3) It may well impact across the whole Auto industry in Aust.

SOme people will think this is great , but look further than the Brand, Both the FG and Ve are can mix it it on the world stage, yet the parent company's activities make it hard.

In the end, it will be AUstralians out of work due to decisions from O/seas.

not the best thing for us

[bluesport]

On a brighter note......on page 38 of todays Sun-Herald Ford have announced a better than expected result and may even show a slight profit in 2011.

[mountainstar]

Originally Posted by Forda

Holden to lose $1 billion a year

I think the plan is for Pontiac to be a niche sporty brand so it wont go away entirely. That's already happened for the most part as the number of available Pontiac models are disappeared.

In any case, the VE is sold as the Chevy Lumina in the middle east so I don't see the problem in selling the G8 as a Chevy in the USA.

A number of police agencies have taken an interest in the G8 as a cop car as the Ford Crown Victoria is getting a bit long in the tooth.

[Tourer]

There is also some pretty poor logic in the article. It says that Holden's total export scheme generates a billion in revenue but also claims that the supposed loss of Pontiac business will cut revenue by the same amount.

What about the Middle East exports - has the "journalist" forgotten them?

I'm with Mountainstar - that is my understanding of the situation with Pontiac in the US.

You would have to say that GMs most important "hero" car and image builder in the US right now is a toss up between the Volt (great green wise) and the Camaro (great excitement wise).

The Camaro was fully developed in Australia off the Commodore platform & the G8 is already on sale there so GM in the US know that they have a great, ready made platform that they can use to bring cars to market very quickly at a relatively low development cost. Just what they need right now and when Holden are building Chevys for the Middle East already then why not for the US in niche markets like the police etc.

The good thing about a relatively small player like Holden on the world scene is that they can move quickly and be adaptable - and their engineering is sound.

[xrystl]

Originally Posted by Tourer

There is also some pretty poor logic in the article. It says that Holden's total export scheme generates a billion in revenue but also claims that the supposed loss of Pontiac business will cut revenue by the same amount.

What about the Middle East exports - has the "journalist" forgotten them?

I'm with Mountainstar - that is my understanding of the situation with Pontiac in the US.

You would have to say that GMs most important "hero" car and image builder in the US right now is a toss up between the Volt (great green wise) and the Camaro (great excitement wise).

The Camaro was fully developed in Australia off the Commodore platform & the G8 is already on sale there so GM in the US know that they have a great, ready made platform that they can use to bring cars to market very quickly at a relatively low development cost. Just what they need right now and when Holden are building Chevys for the Middle East already then why not for the US in niche markets like the police etc.

The good thing about a relatively small player like Holden on the world scene is that they can move quickly and be adaptable - and their engineering is sound.

Holden's exports are down 80% which includes the Middle East , problem with the G8 is only half of what was exported were sold the remainder stockpiled and now another year older and yet to find a home ( like offloading 08 stock here in Australia) - if GM ditches Holden , GM will supply the Mid East with their own products as they will need to move every vehicle that they can - a company that is losing $1bn per annum is not a real good investment , the domestic market is too small and shrinking and if the exports dry up it ends up like Saab Opel and Hummer nearing "give away prices" , problem is who buys companies that are losing money in these troubled times?? , GM can't afford to keep them and no one else can afford to buy them !! = a hell of a predicament to be in .
Volt could be a long term Saviour, Camaro has a limited market (like Monaro at home) and not much else really .

[mountainstar]

Originally Posted by xrystl

Holden's exports are down 80% which includes the Middle East , problem with the G8 is only half of what was exported were sold the remainder stockpiled and now another year older and yet to find a home ( like offloading 08 stock here in Australia) - if GM ditches Holden , GM will supply the Mid East with their own products as they will need to move every vehicle that they can - a company that is losing $1bn per annum is not a real good investment , the domestic market is too small and shrinking and if the exports dry up it ends up like Saab Opel and Hummer nearing "give away prices" , problem is who buys companies that are losing money in these troubled times?? , GM can't afford to keep them and no one else can afford to buy them !! = a hell of a predicament to be in .
Volt could be a long term Saviour, Camaro has a limited market (like Monaro at home) and not much else really .

I'll give an example of how bad it is in the USA. Volkswagen wanted a piece of the minivan market in the USA so they partnered with Chrysler to badge the Chrysler minivan as the VW Routan. They made 30000 of them last year until this February. Only 3000 have sold.

So the G8 isn't doing too bad.

I'll give another example that is even starker. BMW in 2007/2008 sold around 1500 BMW 7 series a month in the USA. This February 2009, they sold 10. That's right 10 7 series for the whole USA.

[Peter Nightingale]

Originally Posted by GTRMagic

Opel for sale??

If Fiat buys Opel, would they take Holden too?

Opel / Vauhall i belive to already have new owners and i belive a good look has been taken at Holdens also...

[Peter Nightingale]

Originally Posted by Peter Nightingale

Opel / Vauhall i belive to already have new owners and i belive a good look has been taken at Holdens also...

And by the way the current V6 engine fitted to the Commodore is a FIAT design and the bigest outside purchaser of these engines is Alfa Romeo of Italy , the plot thickens....

[xrystl]

Originally Posted by Peter Nightingale

And by the way the current V6 engine fitted to the Commodore is a FIAT design and the bigest outside purchaser of these engines is Alfa Romeo of Italy , the plot thickens....

Alfa Romeo being a part of the Fiat organization takes what it's given engine and platform wise , Saab was also product sharing with Fiat in the eighties, the Saab 9000 , Fiat Croma, Lancia Thema and Alfa 164 are all pretty much the same vehicle , and not much good either

[xrystl]

[QUOTE=mountainstar;2449624]I'll give an example of how bad it is in the USA. Volkswagen wanted a piece of the minivan market in the USA so they partnered with Chrysler to badge the Chrysler minivan as the VW Routan. They made 30000 of them last year until this February. Only 3000 have sold.

So the G8 isn't doing too bad.

QUOTE] On a slightly different slant , 30.000 units to VW is about .05 percent of their output , 25.000 units to Holden is almost a third of their output , and there lies the difference - VW is very close to displacing GM as the second largest vehicle manufacturer, they took third place off Ford in the past 2 years .

[Forda]

Originally Posted by Peter Nightingale

And by the way the current V6 engine fitted to the Commodore is a FIAT design and the bigest outside purchaser of these engines is Alfa Romeo of Italy , the plot thickens....

Wasn't the current Commodore V6 a Buick derived engine?

[Tourer]

Nah it is part of a complete modular family of engines designed over a five year period and announced in 2004.

The design was completely new but there were funding partners in the overall project for the whole family of engines, one of which was FIAT but it would be completely incorrect to suggest that the V6 is a FIAT design.

Holden was one of only two plants in the world building the engines when the engine family was announced - they export them to many parts of the GM world and to Alfa. There were plans at the time to build a third plant but I'm not sure that this actually happened.

[mountainstar]

Originally Posted by Peter Nightingale

Opel / Vauhall i belive to already have new owners and i belive a good look has been taken at Holdens also...

I think GM would be surprised to hear that.

[mountainstar]

[QUOTE=xrystl;2449712]

Originally Posted by mountainstar

I'll give an example of how bad it is in the USA. Volkswagen wanted a piece of the minivan market in the USA so they partnered with Chrysler to badge the Chrysler minivan as the VW Routan. They made 30000 of them last year until this February. Only 3000 have sold.

So the G8 isn't doing too bad.

QUOTE] On a slightly different slant , 30.000 units to VW is about .05 percent of their output , 25.000 units to Holden is almost a third of their output , and there lies the difference - VW is very close to displacing GM as the second largest vehicle manufacturer, they took third place off Ford in the past 2 years .

That wasn't my point. Chrysler builds the vans anyways so it is 0% of VW's output.

The point is that selling over half the cars produced is good right now when some manufacturers are selling 10% of production of a certain model.

In general vehicle sales in the USA on a monthly basis have been 50% off sales figures from the previous few years.