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Old 10 Apr 2017, 08:28 (Ref:3725231)   #1
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DOTR Analysis

I just completed an exhaustive, and detailed analysis of the results of the last 12 months DOTR threads. Using a supercomputer, and a complex set of algorithms, and sophisticated programs I am confidently able to predict the result of the next round.

Hamilton fans will vote for Lewis.

Vettel fans will vote for Seb.

Ricciardo fans will vote for Daniel

Verstappen fans will vote for Max.

F1Pete will vote for Kimi.



Caveat; There is only one person who can influence the outcome of my prediction. Would he dare?
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Old 10 Apr 2017, 08:38 (Ref:3725236)   #2
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I must be a serial hater then, because I'm sure I've voted for all four of them in the last 12 months
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Old 10 Apr 2017, 08:52 (Ref:3725239)   #3
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I must be a serial hater then, because I'm sure I've voted for all four of them in the last 12 months
My research showed that, and it nearly caused the program to crash. I call it the CMUMMS.

Can't Make Up My Mind Syndrome

I should also point out that I discovered a wide variation in the SOHQ amongst voters.
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Old 10 Apr 2017, 09:26 (Ref:3725248)   #4
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crmalcolm should be qualifying in the top 10 on the gridcrmalcolm should be qualifying in the top 10 on the grid
ingroup-outgroup bias?
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Old 10 Apr 2017, 19:57 (Ref:3725379)   #5
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ingroup-outgroup bias?
Probably. If I understood the question.
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Old 10 Apr 2017, 20:06 (Ref:3725380)   #6
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chunder should be qualifying in the top 5 on the gridchunder should be qualifying in the top 5 on the gridchunder should be qualifying in the top 5 on the grid
I will vote for the least obvious person any time I can
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Old 10 Apr 2017, 23:54 (Ref:3725411)   #7
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Pretty sure I voted for all four of the above as well.
Do you want to publish a table of the voting patterns bauble?
Seems a pity to waste the research.
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Old 11 Apr 2017, 06:33 (Ref:3725430)   #8
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Pretty sure I voted for all four of the above as well.
Do you want to publish a table of the voting patterns bauble?
Seems a pity to waste the research.
I could but you would never understand it

The reasons given for their choice of DOTR by certain contributors, are frequently so convoluted, that the computer invariably throws up reference to Machiavelli (an Italian Maserati driver from the renaissance period) as it attempts to justify the choice.
Using the 'Button Logic' as a baseline it became obvious that many 'fans' simply ticked the same name every time without reference to data from scientific analysis.

Sadly many drivers have been physiologically scarred when reading the results.

I would try to explain further but the nurse is coming.
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Old 11 Apr 2017, 11:06 (Ref:3725487)   #9
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wnut has a real shot at the podium!wnut has a real shot at the podium!wnut has a real shot at the podium!wnut has a real shot at the podium!wnut has a real shot at the podium!


I pretty much don't read the reasons anymore, and don't vote after some pitiful races.
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Old 11 Apr 2017, 12:40 (Ref:3725510)   #10
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You're onto something bauble, but it's probably not surprising. Look at it this way - we don't see the drivers in equal cars, so we form suppositions about their relative merits and many develop favourites based on those suppositions (e.g. Alonso is a firm favourite of many because he's clearly good and a potential champion again in a better car). Because people cannot conclusively say who did the best job of the drivers, they often vote for one of their favourites when they did a very good job, because they see the evidence to support that. That does not mean that they are ignoring the good job of others.

Elaborating on this idea of favourites, would it not be fair to say that people become driver favourites after they see very good performances, rather than first forming a favourite and then looking for evidence to support that? If anything, they have their favourites based on good performances from the past and then perhaps subconsciously look for or easily recognise evidence which supports other good performances in the future. I would go with the view that Ten-Tenths users are often an objective bunch to a large extent, sweeping aside nationality as their prime basis on which to favour a driver (hence the running joke on here along the lines of 'I voted Alonso because he's British').

For what it's worth to point this out, Hamilton didn't win a single Driver of the Grand Prix poll last year on Ten-Tenths, despite winning more Grands Prix than any other.

Reasonably interestingly, I think, users seem to find it easier to vote for a winning team than a winning driver on here. Mercedes took a lot of Team of the Grand Prix poll wins last year.
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Old 11 Apr 2017, 13:26 (Ref:3725520)   #11
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ASCII Man should be qualifying in the top 3 on the gridASCII Man should be qualifying in the top 3 on the gridASCII Man should be qualifying in the top 3 on the gridASCII Man should be qualifying in the top 3 on the grid
I'd vote for anyone but Hamilton, just as I voted for anyone but Vettel when he was winning everything.
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Old 11 Apr 2017, 13:26 (Ref:3725521)   #12
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Because people cannot conclusively say who did the best job of the drivers, they often vote for one of their favourites when they did a very good job, because they see the evidence to support that.
In-group bias...

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Originally Posted by Born Racer View Post
For what it's worth to point this out, Hamilton didn't win a single Driver of the Grand Prix poll last year on Ten-Tenths, despite winning more Grands Prix than any other.
Out-group bias...

In-group Out-group bias is a common phenomenon in sports fans, and will always influence polls of 'who did the best'.

Alonso and Ricciardo both seem to have generated a high level of support, and as a result those who feel a connection to them (fans, in-group) make a sub-conscious decision that anything preventing them from a perfect performance must be a fault of something outside of their control. They will also compensate for the driver, and therefore see them as having performed better than any others.

On the other side, Hamilton and increasingly Verstappen seem to be the 'rival' or the enemy to their support, and so people who are not fans and feel disconnected from them (out-group) make a sub-conscious decision that anything they do well must be a part of someone else making the situation easy for them (perfect car, money, officials) and so find it difficult to give them credit.

Hamilton gets this especially so having been the most successful driver over recent seasons. Every other drivers' fans see him as a rival because they want to see their favourite win the championship. Therefore, if Hamilton is the predicted winner, the majority of other fans will find it difficult (sub-consciously) to vote for him.

During the RBR/Vettel dominance, how many times did Vettel top the DOTR poll?
[Edit:] In 2013, Vettel took 3 race wins, but only 3.5 DOTR's.

Last edited by crmalcolm; 11 Apr 2017 at 13:34.
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Old 11 Apr 2017, 15:12 (Ref:3725538)   #13
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I see he SOHQ coming into effect here.


Now back to the main conclusion of my intensive research. Apart from one well known member did anyone else vote for the same driver every time regardless of their performance?

I shall have to go back and run more comparative algorithms to find out.

Nurse, nurse. The pills.
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Old 12 Apr 2017, 06:39 (Ref:3725699)   #14
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Apart from one well known member did anyone else vote for the same driver every time regardless of their performance?
:cough GTRMagic
:cough Webber?
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Old 12 Apr 2017, 15:35 (Ref:3725876)   #15
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S griffin should be qualifying in the top 3 on the gridS griffin should be qualifying in the top 3 on the gridS griffin should be qualifying in the top 3 on the gridS griffin should be qualifying in the top 3 on the grid
Good job I try to vote for different drivers each race
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