So then who's going to win the championship.

[Knowlesy]

I suddenly am getting the feeling of a magnificent homecoming for Felipe in October...

[duke_toaster]

We need Schummy here for a bootstrap (the one where the remaining GPs will be simulated based on the other ones calculating the probability of each driver winning)

[Marbot]

Originally Posted by Knowlesy

I suddenly am getting the feeling of a magnificent homecoming for Felipe in October...

hmmm........somehow Kimi taking the title there just wouldn't be the same.

[Teretonga]

Monza, Spa, China, Japan, and Brazil....

The championship is wide open. Ferrari are in a position to sneak in with a late season surge and rip away the title on merit. Three of the circuits will favour Ferrari, one may give a distinct advantage to McLaren. They already have chosen their weapons. Let the battle commence.

The worst thing that could happen now is for the FIA to meddle with what is a fantastic set up and start playing with the WDC points. LEAVE THEM ALONE Max and Co..... We do not need your assistance in setting up a nice season finale... The teams are capapble of working it out themselves!

[Gt_R]

At Mclaren - Lewis vs Alonso
Who i'd like to see win the championship: Lewis
Who most deserve the championship: Lewis

At Ferrari - Massa vs Kimi
Who i'd prefer to see win the championship: Kimi
Who most deserve the championship: Massa

Unfortunately, i think there is a good chance that Alonso will win the championship, if only because luck will fall his way in the end when it mattered most. The Ferraris will be busy taking good points away from each other, hence minimising their pace of closing up the points gap. Lewis, despite being a rookie, had shown less tendency than Alonso to make errors and has shown himself behaving more appropriately, while matching Alonso's speed.

[Gt_R]

And hopefully, FIA is able to seperate the appeal case from the championship (though i doubt they can).

Whether a team is right/wrong should not be dictated by how close a championship is, and neither should any rewards/penalty.

[Knowlesy]

Originally Posted by Gt_R

Unfortunately, i think there is a good chance that Alonso will win the championship, if only because luck will fall his way in the end when it mattered most.

But as I was told endlessly, relentlessly, in years past, luck falls to those who work for it. Err....

Alonso has scored in every race thus far which is a reasonable feat this year. Any of the four would deserve the title equally for me to be honest.

[pottiella]

yeah, I didn't realise that detail about Alonso finishing in the points every race. lol, noe that it has come to everyone's attention, he probably won't now!

Regardless, i think lewis will win the title. Fair play to him, Fernando won the last two championships on consistency, and I don't buy the argument that he won because others suffered unreliability - tough cookies, that's F1, winning the championship is half about the car underneath. So When it mattered, Lewis was consistent, and it's built up the lead that will be difficult to slash completely, given that the 4 drivers are taking points off each other.

True, there are some decisions I'm not terribly happy with, that have influenced/helped Lewis' lead in the championship, but c'est la vie, that won't change the fact the final result will be what it is - Lewis winning the title. I just feel a little cheated that he will go down in history as the first rookie to win a title, when he hasn't had it tough like most rookies in F1 history that have gone one to being world champions, but will somehow be known as the best rookie as a result. That is all that I'm uncomfortable with really....

[Jimmy Magnusson]

Originally Posted by pottiella

True, there are some decisions I'm not terribly happy with, that have influenced/helped Lewis' lead in the championship, but c'est la vie, that won't change the fact the final result will be what it is - Lewis winning the title. I just feel a little cheated that he will go down in history as the first rookie to win a title, when he hasn't had it tough like most rookies in F1 history that have gone one to being world champions, but will somehow be known as the best rookie as a result. That is all that I'm uncomfortable with really....

Only one I can think of that I didn't like was penalising Alonso in Hungary - we got cheated on a possibly great first corner (maybe Raikkonen would have won with the Macca's off in the tyres!). I do agree that Hamilton's career has been without problems when it comes to budgets (not the first racer with a load of dosh though, there's been plenty of well financed guys in the past), but you have to say that he has really performed exceptionally all the way to F1. If he'd have sucked in a championship he would've been gone me thinks!

Anyhow, it will be interresting to see what happens to the other driver in the program - Oliver Rowland. Born in 1992 and currently in karts so next season he should be in something larger I reckon.

[pottiella]

and that stupid new safetycar/pitstop rule this year that forced Nico and Fernando to stop and get a penalty, or run out of fuel altogether. Catch 22, and it shouldn't even exist.

As for Lewis, its an endless debate, but the misconception is where I am not disputing Lewis' ability, that cannot be disputed; but the fact all I'm trying to emphasise is the status he is getting as a rookie when in fact there has never been a rookie in his situation, so I feel it a little unjust. Perhaps the new way of doing things in F1, where some rookies are jumping straight into top teams, doesnt sit well with me. I liked seeing drivers earn their spot in a top team; yet other rookies coming into low budget teams are so likely to get alienated - but might be just as good, yet will never be seen as a rookie equal to Lewis...not even will previous world champions who were once rookies in low budget teams!! It's not a criticism of Lewis; just the situation and current climate within F1.

[BootsOntheSide]

I think Lewis is overdue some misfortune, but Ferrari have left it a bit too late. Kimi has made too many errors to deserve the title, and I don't believe that his reliability rate is purely down to luck, it's been the same compared to team-mates every year. Alonso hasn't really shone enough to deserve it, but he usually has a cool head under pressure. I just hope it's decided with some on-track overtaking for a change.

[duke_toaster]

Originally Posted by Jimmy Magnusson

Only one I can think of that I didn't like was penalising Alonso in Hungary - we got cheated on a possibly great first corner (maybe Raikkonen would have won with the Macca's off in the tyres!).

Sorry, that's just laughable. Alonso's blocking was against the rules and extremely unsporting. IMO the stewards would have been justified throwing him out of the weekend.

Lewis has had his fair share of kit bad luck - 2 tyre faliures!

[Jimmy Magnusson]

Originally Posted by duke_toaster

Sorry, that's just laughable. Alonso's blocking was against the rules and extremely unsporting. IMO the stewards would have been justified throwing him out of the weekend.

Lewis has had his fair share of kit bad luck - 2 tyre faliures!

Indeed, I don't deny that the tactics were Schumacher-esque (and such behaviour should be discouraged), but you have to say that the race could have been quite interresting!

[Dutton]

I am kinda getting the feeling the WDC will go to a Mclaren driver, but the WCC to Ferrari.

I could cope with that: if the championships are to be split, I have far more interest in Ferrari getting the WCC than one of the drivers the WDC.

[duke_toaster]

Originally Posted by Jimmy Magnusson

Indeed, I don't deny that the tactics were Schumacher-esque (and such behaviour should be discouraged), but you have to say that the race could have been quite interresting!

It would have been more interesting to see him carve his way from the back

[TIMELORD]

If you replicate the five previous results for the next five races, you would end up with the following final table:

HAMILTON ...110
ALONSO ......110
RAIKKONEN ..104
MASSA .........99

Hamilton would take the title with 5 3rd places to Alonso's 3 (they would both have 4 wins and 4 2nd places apiece). Raikkonen would have won more races than anyone else (5). Massa would also have had 4 wins.

This may all seem like a worthless piece of conjecture (you wouldn't be wrong!) but it shows how difficult the McLaren pair will be to catch, as well as how vital every place is, as there is every chance of points ties when the championship is this tight.

[Mr V]

Surely, TIMELORD, given your username, you should be able to give us a more definitive conclusion than that

[Dutton]

There is no doubt Ferrari have to basically 1-2 every race and Mclaren screw up a bit for the WDC to be a realistic prospect (WCC is thoroughly on, though).

[TIMELORD]

Originally Posted by Mr V

Surely, TIMELORD, given your username, you should be able to give us a more definitive conclusion than that

I save my definitive conclusions for when I'm in the bookies (not that it ever seems to work!)

[Teretonga]

So if the order that they finished in Turkey was replicated in Monza, Spa, Japan, China and Brazil they would finish the year like this:

Massa 119
Alonso 109
Kimi R. 108
Lewis H. 104 ........

[Dutton]

I do not see the point in these fantasies...

I could make up results for the remaining races that would mean they all end up tied, but that doesn't mean it would mean anything...

[Nicholosophy]

And if Yamamoto won each of the last five races with Sutil second and Webber third...


... you're probably smoking the wacky tobaccy.

[Dutton]

No doubt! Like Webber could get 3rd, .

[Notso Swift]

Yeah as if, he was FIRST AGAIN in Turkey

[duke_toaster]

Originally Posted by Teretonga

So if the order that they finished in Turkey was replicated in Monza, Spa, Japan, China and Brazil they would finish the year like this:

Massa 119
Alonso 109
Kimi R. 108
Lewis H. 104 ........

Only because Lewis got a tyre faliure

Please could someone do a bootstrap as it would be really interesting