Predictions for the GP of Brazil

[m1fcf]

What we know:
Hamilton is on a used engine. Both Ferraris can take new ones.

What will happen (1):
Hamilton will go out all guns blazing for a Pole Position, then take a 10 place penalty to change his engine. During the race he will fight through to 3rd or 4th Place and hold station, letting Ferrari take Constructors but still keep the Drivers Title for himself.

What will happen (2):
Hamilton will go out all guns blazing for a Pole Position. Starts the race with his 'old' engine which runs fine, and he leads the race until 5 laps from the end. In the meantime, Kimi and Massa have been cruising round in 2nd and 3rd respectively. Once Hamilton's engine blows, we find that Kimi has inexpelicably run wide on turn one and let his teammate through to claim the Race Win (important for his home GP) and also the Drivers Title.

Of the two, I think that Option 1 is the most likely to happen. But what about the rest of you?

[Super Hans]

My prediction is that Lewis will qualify in second behind Massa and hold that position until somewhere between laps 5-10 when he'll allow Raikkonen through, and the race will finish in that order.

[ralf fan]

Firstly I think Hamilton have a fresh engine because I don't think he has used his 'joker'.

I think Lewis will settle for third after what happened last year. Ferrari are normally very strong in Brazil if it is dry so in any case it will be difficult to win. Mclaren have an outside chance of the Constructors but it doesn't look too likely and the drivers championship is the one that most teams covet the most.

[m1fcf]

Originally Posted by ralf fan

Firstly I think Hamilton have a fresh engine because I don't think he has used his 'joker'.

FIA rule 28.4.f) Except during the last Event of the Championship season, each driver will be permitted to use a replacement engine without incurring a penalty the first time this becomes necessary during the season.

[Super Hans]

Hamilton's engine may be on the second of it's two-race cycle, but that doesn't mean it's going to fail.

Therefore I don't understand why the two choices you give are based on either an engine change or an engine failure.

[duke_toaster]

I'm not sure if one can use your engine joker before the final race or not.

Predictions if it is dry

Option A). Hamilton goes for a normal fuel load. Kovalainen gets put on a light load to put him on pole. Kovalainen is used tactically. Hamilton finishes 2nd or 3rd and therefore wins.
Option B). A Force India, under instruction from their engine supplier starts from the pit lane and does whatever he can to get lapped and brake tests Hamilton. Massa manages to stuff it in the gravel, Hamilton wins.

If it's wet

Option Z) Hamilton on pole, start behind SC, Massa does his usual wet weather business and spins several times. Hamilton wins the race and the title (Brucie Bonus : Kovalainen comes second to give McLaren the WCC).

EDIT : Hold on, hold on. The phrase there is during the last event. Surely they could simply switch the engine in Woking?

[Super Hans]

Originally Posted by duke_toaster

Option B). A Force India, under instruction from their engine supplier starts from the pit lane and does whatever he can to get lapped and brake tests Hamilton.

Massively unlikely, given that McLaren and Force India have all but agreed to enter into a technical partnership from 2009.

And of course, one of FI's current drivers is Lewis Hamilton's best friend.

[m1fcf]

Originally Posted by Super Hans

Hamilton's engine may be on the second of it's two-race cycle, but that doesn't mean it's going to fail.

Therefore I don't understand why the two choices you give are based on either an engine change or an engine failure.

Given the quite high amount of time at full speed down the back straight in China, can we expect the engine to have taken more of a beating than at other events?

The engine change is based on my assumption that there is a significant difference in power between the new and used engines. A new engine *should* put him on a par with the two red cars.

I am guessing that 'Final Event' counts for any time between the end of China and the start of the Brazilian weekend. The reference probably amounts to more along the lines of the official FIA seals placed on an engine rather than any reasonable timeframe.

[Flat12-Aircool]

Originally Posted by duke_toaster

Option B). A Force India, under instruction from their engine supplier starts from the pit lane and does whatever he can to get lapped and brake tests Hamilton.

An unwise decision, considering who'll be supplying Force India's engines next year.

[Super Hans]

Originally Posted by m1fcf

Given the quite high amount of time at full speed down the back straight in China, can we expect the engine to have taken more of a beating than at other events?

It's certainly a factor, but given the extent of his lead, I reckon he and the team will have kept something back in the final stages of the race, with one eye on Brazil.

[RaiseYourFist]

I think they should put Hamilton on a relatively conservative strategy and Heikki on a more aggressive strategy and see if he can win it for himself while Hamilton lays back.

Also depending on whether Massa chokes again in qualifying and if Kimi really wants his teammate as WDC Lewis might even get on the podium.

[Icebaby]

Massa leads with Kimi second, Hamilton third and Alonso fourth, on the straight Alonso attempts to go round the outside of Hamilton and as he said "no one over takes me on the outside" gives Alonso a squeeze which results in Alonso drilling him off the track in the barrier. The three "Ferrari's" finish 1,2,3 . Lovely

[Satorian]

Kimi with super light load set for pole to keep Hamilton back (and/or tangle with him) while Massa follows with a standard (or slightly heavier load). If that fails to produce the result Ferrari requires, Piquet will mysteriously crash into Hamilton. Also, Hamilton should stay away from trying to overtake Alonso. Chances of Massa then still binning it are considerable.

I think Hamilton has to get the pole. Not to win the race per se, but to keep himself out of contact with other cars. If he gets pole and pulls away after T1, it's a done race. If he gets stuck in a front-running pack, things could still go either way and become very unpredictable. In case Hamilton doesn't win it this year, conspiracy mongering will run rampant.

[Bononi]

Changed the title for a better understanding.

If it was for "Brazilian predictions..." it would be a very different subject.

[Adam43]

Originally Posted by m1fcf

What will happen (1):
Hamilton will go out all guns blazing for a Pole Position, then take a 10 place penalty to change his engine.

IMHO this is a mad thing to do. It is safer to lose a few hp rather than fight through the field.

[Bononi]

Forgot... as such, Adam ! As such.

[Dutton]

They say the difference between the first and second race is not much these days anyway (as good as not worth mentioning, really).

Going on past form, you'd had to figure Massa has an excellent chance of winning this race (the favourite, even?). I don't see any particular reason to think he is going to make a mess of things (well, if it rains then who knows?).

Hamilton made a comment in the China post-race PC that the team were expecting to be more competitive in Brazil than they were in China. If this turns out to be accurate, then I suppose we would have to have him down as an emphatic race favourite rather than the more conventional Massa nod. Probability would suggest that Lewis will manage to finish in a good enough position to render Massa's finishing position irrelevant. However, last year showed well enough that a 7pt lead does not guarantee anything. I'm hoping for Mclaren's capacity to shoot itself in the foot coming to the fore during the race.

It seems improbable that Mclaren will outscore Ferrari enough to clinch the WCC, but you never know. Ferrari are quite capable of catastrophic self-destruction at times - especially this year, it seems.

The other side to all this, too, of course, is the whole BMW-Renault deal. If they both have competitive packages for the weekend, well, that just throws everything into the air.

I think it is actually rather hard to guess what is going to happen. This year both Ferrari and Mclaren (and their drivers) have shown tremendously erratic form, with the overall standard being significantly below par. It is anyone's game, really.

[neilap]

I think the smart thing is to have both macs qualify light. Kovi should be just a little heavier to give him a better shot at winning by putting in some fast laps after LH pits. Lewis being light should allow him a pole position and lessen the chances of him getting caught up in an accident. The light load should allow him to build up a decent gap before pitting. The Ferraris will be going for a 1 2 finish so they should be fuelled heavier, they can battle Kovi. After pitting LH should be able to get a 3rd or 4th getting him the title.

[Dutton]

Mclaren would surely be aiming for a 1-2, too, though, wouldn't they? Beyond aiming for it simply because it is the best possible result, it is also pretty much essential if they intend to have any chance of getting the WCC. You can be sure they won't give up on it without a fight.

[JeremySmith]

My prediction is that Lewis Hamilton will win the WDC at the Brazilian Grand Prix.....

[Marbot]

Originally Posted by Dutton

Mclaren would surely be aiming for a 1-2, too, though, wouldn't they? Beyond aiming for it simply because it is the best possible result, it is also pretty much essential if they intend to have any chance of getting the WCC. You can be sure they won't give up on it without a fight.

Both McLaren's fuelled very light so that either one gets pole.Quicker off the line and then if necessary a quick change-about and Kovi keeps the blood hounds off Hamilton's back.Hamilton pits with Kovi over a pit stop behind.Easy innit'!

But yes,McLaren have to get Kovi into play in Brazil.

[Dutton]

Originally Posted by JeremySmith

My prediction is that Lewis Hamilton will win the WDC at the Brazilian Grand Prix.....

Then I'll go against the odds and say Massa will get it (someone has to, ).

[Marbot]

I think that the 2008 WDC will be decided some time after the race.

Remember last year and the fuel that was too cold.

[JeremySmith]

Originally Posted by Dutton

Then I'll go against the odds and say Massa will get it (someone has to, ).

Well after that post race interview this weekend where Felipe tried (weak attempt) to tell us that he passed Kimi to finish second, I don't give a rats behind about what happens to him....

[Marbot]

We weren't fooled for one minute mate.