Toward the title 2014

[Schummy]

Apparently it's a bit silly to speak about who can get the title this season. We all "know" it is going to be for a Merc driver. Ok, that's true (?). But we can look how far the rest of the field are in the title chase. And, of course we can look how significant is the gap between those "two good old friends", Nico and Lewis.

The above paragraph is just a justification for putting stats, if it was needed ;-)

For example, how about the gap inpoints with Rosberg, the current leader? The following table shows info about those gaps:

DRV PTS GAP G1R
ROS 165 
HAM 136  29  7.8 Still not difficult
RIC  83  82 21.9 Very difficult 
ALO  79  86 23.0 Very difficult
VET  60 105 28.1 Unlikely
HUL  59 106 28.3 Unlikely

TEAM PTS GAP G1R               
MER  301      
RBR  143 158 42.2 Mostly unlikely
FER   98 203 54.3 Unlikely
FOR   87 214 57.2 Unlikely

I'm using "unlikely" in a strong form: something possible but very improbabl, let's say practically discarded.

The key point is the G1R column. It shows the equivalent gap if there was just one (normal) race to go. In the calculations I'm taking in account the (infamous) double points in the final race. So G1R > 25 is virtually impossible to overcome, and, in my past experience, G1R > 10 is difficult to overcome.

Main points IMO:

• Lewis is not yet in a difficult position but he is not that far from it and he cannot lose more ground if he want to go on being a normal title candidate.
• Tthe bests of the rest, Ricky and Alonso are almost out of it already, even if Merc was not so dominant in the future.
• Merc has virtually the teams title in the pocket, only Red Bull has a marginal realistic chance (still).

Things-to-do (supposedly) for drivers in next GP:

• Hamilton has to avoid losing any more points in the next race, else he will be in a statistically difficult position already.
• Ricciardo has to recover 3 points from NR to maintain some slim chances. Alonso would have to recover 7 points.

[Teretonga]

I see...

So if Rosberg retires at Silverstone, and Hamilton wins, and Riccardo and Alonso finish second and third, that restores to some degree, balance to the battle for the championship.

But if Hamilton retires and Rosberg wins that is going to make it difficult for everyone...

[Schummy]

Yeah.

If Rosberg wins and Lewis retires, Hamilton will have a difficult job to be WDC, and the rest will have it virtually impossible.

If Nico retires and Hamilton wins, it will be pretty much 50/50 for them. If Ricciardo and Alonso get a lot of points, it will still be very difficult for them! The mountain to climb is so big that they are going to need several "miraculous" results to have a reasonable chance.

Let's elaborate that last point. Let's imagine the most positive scenario for Ricciardo or Alonso: NR retires in the next races, Ricciardo will need to win 2 races in the next two races (and another good results against Rosberg) to be in a not difficult position for the title. Alonso would need three wins with three NR retirements, in the next three races to not be in a difficult position. I just mean "not difficult position" , but their chances would still be relatively small. And it is not taking in account Hamilton!

[TheNo1F1Fan]

Ricciardo and Alonso are battling for the Top 3.

[Catingaround]

Yay!

cheers Schummy

[Schummy]

Evolution of the points gap to the leader along the season (by now). The graph shows the graduation between a no important gap to a difficult one or one virtually impossible to surpass. As the season advances, less and less drivers are in a likely position to contend for the title.



Represented drivers are Rosberg, Hamilton, Ricciardo, Alonso, Botas, Vettel and Hulkenberg. Colors are gray, blue, red, black and orange for the teams, with the natural assignment (well, black=Williams).

Note that Rosberg is the dashed gray line at the bottom. Every no Mercedes driver is practically out of the reasonable zone, but Ricciardo and Alonso try to hold somehow. Hamilton has been rebounding upward and downward due to his several "events".

[JacobP]

The championship fight is wide open to only Hamilton and Rosberg, and given that half season is ahead of us, including the 50 point Abu Dhabi race, _anything_ can happen.

[Schummy]

Situation after Hungary, just before the post summer "half" part of the season.

Gaps in points (respect to the leader) and equivalent gap if it were just one race to go. In terms of probability, the general rule is: a 10 point one-race-gap has a probability of about 10% to overcome it, a 25 point one-race-gap has a probability of about 1% to overcome it.

    PTS GAP 1GAP PRB
ROS 202 
HAM 191  11  3.3 46%
RIC 131  71 21.4  1.8% 
ALO 115  87 26.2  0%
BOT  95 107 32.3  0%
VET  88 114 34.4  0%

The probabilities in the table were found by runing tens of thousands of simulations for the next GPs, taking in account past GPs. Rosberg and Hamilton are essentially at 50-50 to win the title, according to those simulations, a result not exactly surprising. The rest of the field is out of luck, except a minor chance by Ricciardo.

The next table shows the probability of every driver against each other in terms of getting a better score at the end of the season. It was also got using the type of simulations formerly said.

 
     ROS  HAM  RIC  ALO  BOT  VET
ROS  ---  54% 100% 100% 100% 100%
HAM  46%  ---  96% 100% 100% 100%
RIC   0%   4%  ---  75%  95% 100%
ALO   0%   0%  25%  ---  92%  98%
BOT   0%   0%   5%   8%  ---  59%
VET   0%   0%   0%   2%  41%  ---

Basically, Rosberg and Hamilton are isolated from the rest, except that Ricciardo has a small probability of getting ahead of Hamilton. Ricciardo has a great probability of being third in the WDC, but he is not still safe from Alonso (75%-25%). Alonso, in turn, is pretty safe in 4th, and has chance against Ricciardo. Finally Botas and Vettel are still in an undetermined state respecting their relative positions, presumibly to get a final 5th in the WDC. (Note that ROS vs RIC probability is slightly different to the first table, it is due a slight differences in the type of simulations used in both tables).

All those simulations suppose the status essentially will not change. If Red Bull betters respecting Mercedes, then their probabilities could increase, but it could worsen and then their probabilities would decrease. So, the probabilities in the tables are the expected central probabilities, taking in account the different scenarios.

[Schummy]

Table of probabilities of outscoring at the end of the season between (main) teams.

     MER  RBR  FER  WIL  FOR  MCL 
MER  --- 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
RBR   0%  --- 100% 100% 100% 100%
FER   0%   0%  ---  67%  99%  93%
WIL   0%   0%  33%  ---  97%  93%
FOR   0%   0%   1%   3%  ---  58%
MCL   0%   0%   7%   7%  42%  ---

Mercedes and Red Bull are safe in itheir 1st and 2nd position. "Safe" means it is unlikely to lose it. Ferrari has a 67%-33% advantage over Williams for 3rd place. Finally, Force India and McLaren will fight for 5th position, with a slight advantage for Force. Interestingly, Force has worse probabilities than McLaren against other teams.

In short, WTC is now in a boring state,with just minor battles (FER-WIL and FOR-MCL).

[Schummy]

Updating after Spa.

Probabilities of every driver outscoring every other driver at the end of the season:

     ROS  HAM  RIC  ALO  BOT  VET
ROS  ---  87%  98% 100% 100% 100%
HAM  13%  ---  79% 100% 100% 100%
RIC   2%  21%  ---  92%  94% 100%
ALO   0%   0%   8%  ---  70%  93%
BOT   0%   0%   6%  30%  ---  60%
VET   0%   0%   0%   7%  40%  ---

Idem for teams:

     MER  RBR  FER  WIL  FOR  MCL
MER  --- 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
RBR   0%  --- 100% 100% 100% 100%
FER   0%   0%  ---  70%  94%  99%
WIL   0%   0%  30%  ---  92%  94%
MCL   0%   0%   6%   8%  ---  44%
FOR   0%   0%   1%   6%  56%  ---

All those probabilities are calculated by means of simulations , using results so far in the season. If a dramatic change in performance of any team happens, it would impact in its probabilities.

Drivers:

• Rosberg has a good advantage from Hamilton, but this is not without chance yet.
• Ricciardo has some reasonable chances against Hamilton. Interestingly also against Rosberg (let's don't forget his 3 wins against 4 wins of Nico), but only very marginally.
• Ricciardo is relatively safe in 3rd position (not totally vs ALO or BOT).
• Alonso-Bottas and Bottas-Alonso are still unstable positions, yet to be decided. However, Alonso is relatively safe against Vettel. In short: Alonso is fighting for 4th/5th, Vettel for 5th/6th, and Bottas for 4th/6th positions.

Teams:

• Mercedes and Red Bull are safe in their 1st and 2nd position.
• Ferrari and Williams are fighting for 3rd/4th.
• McLaren and Force India are battling for 5th/6th, almost at 50%-50%. Interestingly Force has a bit of advantage even if they have less points.
• McLaren and Force have a small probability against Ferrari and Williams. It is very improbable but the chance exists.

[Schummy]

Gap evolution through the season (so far).

The vertical axis means the gap transformed to be the equivalent gap if there was only one race to go (one race with normal points :-) ).

The dashed lines means a 10% and 1% of probability of outscoring the top driver.

Colors (more or less obvious): Gray: mcl, Blue: rbr, Red: fer, Black: wil. Dashed line means the second driver in the team.

[awrb]

Thanks Schummy, really interesting analysis here, different to what the media give. Thanks for taking the time to post it

[Schummy]

Thanks, awrb . I hope to put the update for Monza soon. This is becoming an interesting end of season in several fronts!

[Aysedasi]

Good work Schummy!

[Schummy]

Thank you!

Update after Monza.

    PTS GAP 1GAP 
ROS 238 
HAM 216  22  7.3 
RIC 166  72 24.0  
BOT 122 116 38.7

1GAP is the gap as if there was only one (normal) race to go. So, the 22 gap between ROS and HAM is (approximately) equivalent to a 7.3 gap with one race to go. RIC would be at 24 points gap with ROS, that means it is very, very unlikely to overcome. An the rest would be out of any realistic chance.

The matrix of probabilities of beating each other driver, according to some simulations is:

     ROS  HAM  RIC  BOT  ALO  VET
ROS  ---  88%  98% 100% 100% 100%
HAM  12%  ---  94% 100% 100% 100%
RIC   2%   6%  ---  95%  98% 100%
BOT   0%   0%   5%  ---  49%  74%
ALO   0%   0%   2%  51%  ---  79%
VET   0%   0%   0%  26%  21%  ---

Nico is still very much the favorite, but he is not safe from Lewis. Ricciardo looks pretty safe in 3rd. Bottas, Alonso and Vettel are in an undecided fight for 4th-6th.

Teams:

     MER  RBR  WIL  FER  MCL  FOR
MER  --- 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
RBR   0%  --- 100% 100% 100% 100%
WIL   0%   0%  ---  73%  96% 100%
FER   0%   0%  27%  ---  94%  99%
MCL   0%   0%   4%   6%  ---  43%
FOR   0%   0%   0%   1%  57%  ---

I find amusing the worries of Wolf about Mercedes losing the WTC. It is extremely unlikely even allowing some severe random events. Wolf should be more worried about a lightning striking him. Mercedes and Red Bull are practically rock-solid in 1st and 2nd positions, particularly Mercedes.

Williams and Ferrari go on fighting 3rd/4th, but now Williams has the advantage. McLaren and Force still fight for 5th/6th (in very equilibrated terms). There is a minor chance of MCL reaching 3rd/4th positions, a lot harder for FOR.

[Schummy]

And now the evolution graph. It represents the probability of beating Rosberg in the championship.

Hamilton's wins has not done a huge impression, it mostly avoided him to worsening his chances. He is just a bit better than before, but he is in his 2nd worse position since the start of the season. Now he has similar chances to when he lost in Austria.

Ricciardo is fighting to scape of the "dreadful" unlikely zone. It is astonishing he is still in (relative) contention for the title.

[Schummy]

Update after Singapore, only 5 races to go, although it is equivalent to 8 normal races because of the double points in last race.

    PTS GAP 1GAP 
HAM 241          
ROS 238   3  1.1
RIC 181  60 21.2  
ALO 133 108 38.2 
VET 124 117 41.4 
BOT 122 119 42.1

As usual, 1GAP is the current gap between driver and leading driver expressed as if there was just one (normal) race to go. Above 25 means unlikely to be overcome, above 10 means difficult to be overcome.

HAM and ROS are essentially tied. RIC is still in (very difficult) contention. The rest are practically out of the picture in probabilistic terms.

The following table shows the probability of each driver outscoring each other driver.

     HAM  ROS  RIC ALO  VET  BOT
HAM  ---  55%  94% 100% 100% 100%
ROS  45%  ---  97% 100% 100% 100%
RIC   6%   3%  ---  99% 100% 100%
ALO   0%   0%   1%  ---  67%  67%
VET   0%   0%   0%  33%  ---  52%
BOT   0%   0%   0%  33%  48%  ---

• HAM and ROS are practically level in terms of probability.
• Interestingly RIC has still some no negligible chances for the title (let's not forget Raikkonen in 2006). Also interesting is RIC has more chances to outscore HAM than outscore ROS (probably due to consistency issues).
• RIC is practically safe in 3rd.
• ALO, VET and BOT go on battling for 4th, 5th, (6th?) final position. It is still very open, probably it will go fluctuating according to events in every resting GP.

Now about the teams.

    PTS  GAP  1GAP
MER 479        MER 
RBR 305  174  61.5 
WIL 187  292 103.2 
FER 178  301  
FOR 117  362  
MCL 111  368  

     MER RBR  WIL  FER  FOR  MCL
MER  --- 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
RBR   0%  --- 100% 100% 100% 100%
WIL   0%   0%  ---  63% 100%  98%
FER   0%   0%  37%  ---  99%  98%
FOR   0%   0%   0%   1%  ---  67%
MCL   0%   0%   2%   2%  33%  ---

• In the top, things are the same as formerly: MER and RBR have solidly taken the first two positions. No dramas here.
• WIL and FER fight closely for 3rd/4th.
• FOR and MCL also fight closely for 5th/6th.
• Very small probability for MCL (or FOR) to catch WIL or FER.

And that's all, folks!

[Schummy]

Updating after Japan:

Probability of each driver beating each other driver in the WDC:

     HAM  ROS  RIC  VET  ALO  BOT
HAM  ---   68  100  100  100  100
ROS   32  ---   97  100  100  100
RIC    0    3  ---  100  100  100
VET    0    0    0  ---   64   64
ALO    0    0    0   36  ---   53
BOT    0    0    0   36   47  ---

• HAM has now a 68%-32% advantage over ROS. Not a lot , he just has some advantage.
• RIC goes on having a little chance against one of the Mercs. It is amazing how well and consistent he is going.
• After the three firsts there is a pretty big wall in terms of probability. Essentially the first three in this WDC are already known (not the order, though).
• VET, ALO and BOT go on fighting closely for 4th, 5th and 6th.
• In short, the structure is: first the pair HAM-ROS, then RIC, then the trio VET-ALO-BOT. The pair and the trio are very open in their internal order.

Same for Teams:

     MER  RBR  WIL  FER  FOR  MCL 
MER  ---  100  100  100  100  100
RBR    0  ---  100  100  100  100
WIL    0    0  ---   87  100  100
FER    0    0   13  ---   99   97
FOR    0    0    0    1  ---   56
MCL    0    0    0    3   44  ---

• MER and RBR are know "sealed" in first and second position, nothing realistic to be worried about.
• WIL has now a sizeable advantage over FER about 3rd position, but it is not yet finished.
• Equality between FOR and MCL for 5th/6th positions.
• MCL has still a little chance to reach FER, but it is really small.
• In short, the scheme is MER, then RBR, then the couple WIL-FER, then the couple FOR-MCL. The only doubt is the ordering of these two pairs.

[Born Racer]

The Perez-Hulkenberg battle is going pretty much as I thought it looked. Perez is looking impressive in the end, alongside Nico who is also impressive. Perez was also fairly even with Button I thought, who is also a very good driver. F1 is full of them.