[Official] Round 10 - Hungarian GP

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Mods, can this be merged with Frostie's thread when he makes his?
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This weekend marks 4 years since Felipe Massa’s horrible accident in qualifying at the Hungaroring. In that 4 years, we have seen astonishing levels of loyalty from Ferrari towards Felipe, so astonishing, that it borders on the absurd. Apart from a brief couple of races at the start of 2010, and at the end of 2012, Felipe’s performances against team-mate Alonso have been remarkably poor. As we head off to the Hungaroring this weekend, Felipe’s Ferrari, and, possibly, F1 career hang in the balance yet again, on the back of some poor displays from the Brazilian.

While Felipe was ahead of Fernando at the Nurburgring, there is little to be gained from spinning out of the race at Turn 1 on Lap 4. Luca Di Montezemelo has stated that he is in no rush to confirm the Brazilian for 2014, and so the pressure is on. How different it all could have been for Felipe, had his Ferrari engine lasted just three laps longer at the Hungaroring in 2008. Leading comfortably, Massa had dominated the race, including a great move to pass Lewis Hamilton at the start. When his engine went pop with the chequered flag in sight, Felipe lost the points and ultimately the title as a result.

Such defining moments in his career have happened in Hungary, and the big question is whether Felipe can make something happen to resurrect his career yet again? Unfortunately for him, Ferrari appear to have fallen off the pace in recent races, with even Fernando struggling to score podiums. Fernando’s gamely pursued the Lotus cars and Vettel at the Nurburgring to keep them in sight, but used up almost all his fuel doing so. With the increase of race temperatures in Germany, the Lotuses came to life to be what looked like the fastest car.

There is the potential this weekend that temperatures could be the highest they have ever been at a Grand Prix. Europe has been gripped by a heatwave for the last two weeks, and forecasters are predicting an air temperature of 40 degrees Celsius. The last time this happened was at Bahrain 2005, where track temperatures also hit 56 degrees. With such high temperatures expected, as well as the revised tyre structures, which appear to have passed thrown at them at the Young Driver Test, it is difficult to see why Lotus cannot win this race.

They were very strong last year, and enjoyed a great tussle amongst themselves when Raikkonen emerged from the pits, but ultimately could not overhaul the McLaren of Lewis Hamilton, which actually didn’t self-destruct while leading, for once. McLaren are nowhere near in contention this year, so who can stop the Lotus cars having their own private duel? It’s not likely to be Mercedes, for the same temperature-related reasons. They may qualify well, but a 55 degree plus track surface is certain to send the Mercs spiralling down the field on raceday.

So what about the Red Bulls? Sebastian Vettel has never won on the tight and twisty circuit, but Webber has. The Bulls’ didn’t have great pace at last years sweltering race, and suffered with their tyres. It is very difficult to predict whether they can challenge for the win this year, but you can be sure they won’t be too far from the action. If conditions are hot on Saturday, then we could see Ferrari vs. Lotus on Sunday. Ferrari’s Achilles Heel has been their inability to get the tyres working correctly during qualifying, and thus starting further down the order than they should be. A hot qualifying should see them unlock their pace, and their usually excellent race pace should have them challenging the Lotuses.

Yet another three week gap between races is drawing to a close, but this race marks the start of the Summer break. We’re staring down the barrel of another interminable 4 week gap, meaning that there has only been one race in seven weeks. The drivers and teams are sure to enjoy the downtime, but it really does ramp up the pressure for the second half of the championship, as the races come thick and fast when action resumes in the Autumn. Let’s hope, for the sake of a tight championship, that Vettel doesn’t sign off the first half of the season with a flourish.