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7 Apr 2010, 14:44 (Ref:2668296) | #26 | ||
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It has been assumed each 0 or 1 is a Bernouilli variable and that the set of 9 digits for each team is a Binomial. In case the two drivers are equal, p = 0.5, and so the "null hipoth" would be B(9,0.5).
The "confidence" is the reverse of the p-value from that Binomial (bilaterally), so the more confidence, the less "statistical significance". It is just an artifact for easiness in interpretation (instead of putting significance levels). The assumption about the Binomial suppose each digit (qualifying, fastest lap, race result) is independent of the others. It really is not so, but last time I checked it, their correlations were relatively low. Doing it without the binomial is more cumbersome but more exact. If I ever have the time maybe I'll try to do it. |
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7 Apr 2010, 17:35 (Ref:2668364) | #27 | |||
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Quote:
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7 Apr 2010, 18:32 (Ref:2668392) | #28 | ||
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What about the rest of the teams? Seems a bit pointless to only do a few of them.
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7 Apr 2010, 19:37 (Ref:2668426) | #29 | ||
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7 Apr 2010, 19:52 (Ref:2668437) | #30 | |||
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I don't know if there is here someone interested in them, I hope so. 1.Renault: I assume Kubica is better anyway (but I respect Petrov) 2.Sauber: It really matters? 3. Lotus: It makes my cry to see those two fine drivers (and the sacred brand) in that lowly car... 4. Virgin: It's designed by Wirth and "managed" by Branson. Enough said. 5. HRT: The new Forti. With that reliability, it's difficult to measure drivers. Anyway Chandhok looks promising. |
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7 Apr 2010, 21:45 (Ref:2668496) | #31 | ||
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Its the new team comparisons I'm most interested in.
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8 Apr 2010, 00:11 (Ref:2668552) | #32 | ||
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Maybe this line plot from Malaysia will help with that:
Quote:
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19 Apr 2010, 11:55 (Ref:2675748) | #33 | ||
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Update after China.
Code:
TEAM BAH AUS MAL CHI TOT Lead Conf. ========================================= VET-WEB 101 100 001 111 = 7-5 (VET) 23% ALO-MAS 011 100 110 111 = 8-4 (ALO) 61% HAM-BUT 111 010 011 010 = 7-5 (HAM) 23% SCH-ROS 010 000 000 000 = 1-11 ROS 99.4% <--Busted! SUT-LIU 110 100 111 111 = 9-3 (SUT) 85% BAR-HUL 111 111 000 101 = 8-4 (BAR) 61% BUE-ALG 100 100 110 000 = 4-8 (ALG) 61% ========================================= Nothing dramatic in the rest of teams, except perhaps Sutil nearing a decision with Liuzzi. Clear advantages, but non significant yet, for Alonso, Barry and Algernoon |
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19 Apr 2010, 12:06 (Ref:2675756) | #34 | ||
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I wouldn't be surprised to see Liuzzi replaced with di Resta, resulting in alternating drivers.
Selby |
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9 May 2010, 21:09 (Ref:2687513) | #35 | ||
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Well, you know, update after Spain.
Code:
TEAM BAH AUS MAL CHI SPA TOT Lead Conf. =============================================== VET-WEB 101 100 001 111 000 = 7- 8 (WEB) 0% ALO-MAS 011 100 110 111 111 = 11- 4 (ALO) 88% <--Warning HAM-BUT 111 010 011 010 110 = 9- 6 (HAM) 61% SCH-ROS 010 000 000 000 101 = 3-12 ROS 96.5% <--Busted! SUT-LIU 110 100 111 111 111 = 12- 3 SUT 96.5% <--Busted! BAR-HUL 111 111 000 101 011 = 10- 5 (BAR) 70% <--Promising BUE-ALG 100 100 110 000 100 = 5-10 (ALG) 70% <--Promising =============================================== -Webber wins Vettel 3-0 and now is infinitesimally ahead. -Massa loses 0-3 to Alonso for 2nd time in a row. Now he is near of being "busted". -Sutil hammers another 3-0 to Liuzzi, who is now "officially" busted. -Barrichello and Algersuari step by step are in the way to "bust" their team mates (if they happen to allow it...). -Hamilton has a slight advantage over Button, but not significant by now. -And, of course, MS famously beats for the first time his poor team mate. |
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16 May 2010, 15:31 (Ref:2691605) | #36 | ||
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Update after MonteCarlo.
Code:
TEAM BAH AUS MAL CHI SPA MON TOT Lead Conf. =============================================== VET-WEB 101 100 001 111 000 010 = 8-10 (WEB) 19% ALO-MAS 011 100 110 111 111 000 = 11- 7 (ALO) 52% HAM-BUT 111 010 011 010 110 111 = 12- 6 (HAM) 76% <--Promising! SCH-ROS 010 000 000 000 101 011 = 5-13 (ROS) 90% <--Warning! SUT-LIU 110 100 111 111 111 011 = 14- 4 SUT 96.9% <--Busted! BAR-HUL 111 111 000 101 011 111 = 13- 5 (BAR) 90% <--Warning! BUE-ALG 100 100 110 000 100 101 = 7-11 (ALG) 52% ===============================================
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20 May 2010, 03:55 (Ref:2694476) | #37 | ||
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Sadly (or not), after the no-appeal from Mercedes, race result for MS in Monaco must be amended. Now it's 0 instead of 1 (i.e. race point for Rosberg, not for Schuey)
Code:
TEAM BAH AUS MAL CHI SPA MON TOT Lead Conf. =============================================== VET-WEB 101 100 001 111 000 010 = 8-10 (WEB) 19% ALO-MAS 011 100 110 111 111 000 = 11- 7 (ALO) 52% HAM-BUT 111 010 011 010 110 111 = 12- 6 (HAM) 76% <--Promising! SCH-ROS 010 000 000 000 101 010 = 4-14 ROS 96.9% <--Busted! SUT-LIU 110 100 111 111 111 011 = 14- 4 SUT 96.9% <--Busted! BAR-HUL 111 111 000 101 011 111 = 13- 5 (BAR) 90% <--Warning! BUE-ALG 100 100 110 000 100 101 = 7-11 (ALG) 52% =============================================== |
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30 May 2010, 19:52 (Ref:2701237) | #38 | ||
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Update after Turkey.
Code:
TEAM BAH AUS MAL CHI SPA MON TUR TOT Lead Conf. ======================================================= VET-WEB 101 100 001 111 000 010 000 = 8-13 (WEB) 62% ALO-MAS 011 100 110 111 111 000 000 = 11-10 (ALO) 0% HAM-BUT 111 010 011 010 110 111 101 = 14- 7 (HAM) 81% <--Promising! SCH-ROS 010 000 000 000 101 010 111 = 7-14 (ROS) 81% <--Promising! SUT-LIU 110 100 111 111 111 011 111 = 17- 4 SUT 99.3% <--Busted! BAR-HUL 111 111 000 101 011 111 101 = 15- 6 (BAR) 92% <--Warning! BUE-ALG 100 100 110 000 100 101 100 = 8-13 (ALG) 62% ======================================================= Schumacher has recovered [wink] from a busted position to a less severe degree, but the advantage still goes on for Nico. Hamilton is in the right way to dominate Button, but Jenson doesn't want to give way Interestingly Alonso has lost his preeminence after two unfortunate GPs. Forecasting future intra-team troubles? |
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31 May 2010, 03:04 (Ref:2701518) | #39 |
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Thanks for these Schummy, always loved reading them last year,
Much appreciated! |
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31 May 2010, 03:15 (Ref:2701525) | #40 | ||
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Thanks, you are kind!
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14 Jun 2010, 12:06 (Ref:2711837) | #41 | ||
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Update after Canada.
Code:
TEAM BAH AUS MAL CHI SPA MON TUR CAN TOT Lead Conf. =========================================================== VET-WEB 101 100 001 111 000 010 000 101 = 10-14 (WEB) 46% ALO-MAS 011 100 110 111 111 000 000 111 = 14-10 (ALO) 46% HAM-BUT 111 010 011 010 110 111 101 111 = 17- 7 HAM 93.6% <--Busted! SCH-ROS 010 000 000 000 101 010 111 000 = 7-17 ROS 93.6% <--Busted! SUT-LIU 110 100 111 111 111 011 111 000 = 17- 7 SUT 93.6% <--Busted! BAR-HUL 111 111 000 101 011 111 101 100 = 16- 8 (BAR) 85% <--Promising! BUE-ALG 100 100 110 000 100 101 100 111 = 11-13 (ALG) 16% =========================================================== In Mercedes home, normal service resumed and Nico again is "busting" Michael v2.0. Sutil continues doing the same to Vitantonio even if the later did a 3-0 in Montreal. The rest is fairly balanced still, except Barrichello is threatening Hulkenberg. An interesting point is Ferrari. After two bad weekends (MON-TUR), Alonso is not with a clear advantage over Massa. |
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15 Jun 2010, 00:16 (Ref:2712295) | #42 | ||
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Thanks for the update Schummy, I always look forward to it after each race!
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Juliette Bravo! Juliette Bravo!!!! |
15 Jun 2010, 05:47 (Ref:2712370) | #43 | |
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Hey Schummy, thanks for doing these after each round.
If the points awarded are for qualy, fastest lap, and who finished ahead, I think Webber gets the points over Vettel for qualy in Canada doesn't he? |
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15 Jun 2010, 10:39 (Ref:2712484) | #44 | |||
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Thank you to everyone who informes about inaccuracies, so, with so many eyes, we can construct a better table. The amended results are: Code:
TEAM BAH AUS MAL CHI SPA MON TUR CAN TOT Lead Conf. =========================================================== VET-WEB 101 100 001 111 000 010 000 001 = 9-15 (WEB) 69% ALO-MAS 011 100 110 111 111 000 000 111 = 14-10 (ALO) 46% HAM-BUT 111 010 011 010 110 111 101 111 = 17- 7 HAM 93.6% <--Busted! SCH-ROS 010 000 000 000 101 010 111 000 = 7-17 ROS 93.6% <--Busted! SUT-LIU 110 100 111 111 111 011 111 000 = 17- 7 SUT 93.6% <--Busted! BAR-HUL 111 111 000 101 011 111 101 100 = 16- 8 (BAR) 85% <--Promising! BUE-ALG 100 100 110 000 100 101 100 111 = 11-13 (ALG) 16% =========================================================== |
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16 Jun 2010, 22:06 (Ref:2713410) | #45 | ||
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Interesting stuff as always, Schummy. Any chance of seeing what the stats look like for the rest of the field? I know the new teams are incredibly slow, but it means that team-mates are the only point of comparison, so it'd be interesting to see how those guys are doing.
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17 Jun 2010, 00:33 (Ref:2713469) | #46 | |
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17 Jun 2010, 01:41 (Ref:2713480) | #47 | ||
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29 Jun 2010, 10:00 (Ref:2719755) | #48 | ||
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Update after Europe.
Code:
TEAM BAH AUS MAL CHI SPA MON TUR CAN EUR TOT Lead Conf. =============================================================== VET-WEB 101 100 001 111 000 010 000 001 111 = 12-15 (WEB) 30% ALO-MAS 011 100 110 111 111 000 000 111 111 = 17-10 (ALO) 75% HAM-BUT 111 010 011 010 110 111 101 111 101 = 19- 8 HAM 94.8% <--Almost busted! SCH-ROS 010 000 000 000 101 010 111 000 010 = 8-19 ROS 94.8% <--Almost busted! SUT-LIU 110 100 111 111 111 011 111 000 111 = 20- 7 SUT 98.1% <--Busted! BAR-HUL 111 111 000 101 011 111 101 100 011 = 18- 9 (BAR) 88% <--Promising! BUE-ALG 100 100 110 000 100 101 100 111 111 = 14-13 (ALG) 0% =============================================================== Some details: Hamilton has already almost busted Button. It is interesting that even if JB is very well placed in WDC, he is "busted" in terms of pace (lap times) and Lewis beats him 6-3 in races. Regularity is being the key to Jenson's quest against Hamilton, and probably his only bet. Rosberg comes back to (almost) busting his heptachamp team mate, after two bad GPs for the later. The only save for MS was he mounting soft tires at the end (and doing a rapid fast race lap). Were Spain and Turkey just a flare? Sutil-Liuzzi is the most clear cut team mate comparison so far (among those 7 teams), Valencia was another 3-0 for Sutil. Barry continues his steady siege of Hulk but he is not busting him (still). The most "interesting" feature is Buemi has finally equalized Algernoon (sic) for the first time in the season, after two bad weekends for the Spaniard. In the first GPs it seemed that Buemi could be busted by his team mate. |
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30 Jun 2010, 01:51 (Ref:2720131) | #49 | ||
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TGF is complete rubbish, he will never do anything.........
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30 Jun 2010, 03:42 (Ref:2720150) | #50 | ||
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Did he deserve that Jordan seat in F1? Probably he has now 7 WDC titles because Mercedes payed his career . It's similar to Nelsinho in Renault, except that Michael has some more GP wins.
Wait, I need to take that pink pill again. |
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