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Old 4 Jun 2015, 09:13 (Ref:3544831)   #1
Schummy
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Toward the FIM title 2015

After 6 races (a third of the season) there are already some relevant info about who is going and who is not going to fight for the title.

I have used the gap between the leader and each rider and the remaining number of races to draw some "conclusions"(?). I have converted the actual gap to an equivalent one-race-gap, this is the gap they would have if only had one race to go (using some probability properties).
Code:
Rid Gap  Gap1           Cont  Out
ROS   
LOR   6   1.7 Contender   --   --
DOV  35  10.1 Difficult  + 2   --
IAN  37  10.7 Difficult  + 4   --
MAR  49  14.1 Difficult  +16   --
SMI  61  17.6 Difficult   --   --
CRU  71  20.5 Difficult   --  -12
PESP 73  21.1 Difficult   --  -10
VIŃ  82  23.7 Difficult   --  - 1
PET  86  24.8 Difficult   --  + 4

Rid Gap  Gap1           Cont  Out
ZAR                     
RAB  31   8.9 Contender  - 3   --
LUT  41  11.8 Difficult  + 8   --
LOW  42  12.1 Difficult  + 9   --
FOL  52  15.0 Difficult  +19   --
MOR  55  15.9 Difficult  +22   --
RIN  55  15.9 Difficult  +22   --
SIME 60  17.3 Difficult   --  -24

Rid Gap  Gap1           Cont  Out
KEN
BAS  46  13.3 Difficult  +13   --
FEN  57  16.5 Difficult  +24   --
OLI  58  16.7 Difficult  +25  -25
VAZ  64  18.5 Difficult   --  -19
VIŃ  69  19.9 Difficult   --  -14
QUA  72  20.8 Difficult   --  -11
BIN  74  21.4 Difficult   --  - 9
BAG  74  21.4 Difficult   --  - 9
Gap = Current gap.
Gap1 = Equivalent one-race gap.
Cont = points needed to recover/lose respect the leader "to be"/"to not be" a title contender.
Out = points needed to recover/lose respect the leader "to be"/"to not be" in the title chase with a minimal likelihood.

I also wrote a brief categorization in three classes: Contender, who has a good probability to overtake the leader for the title (about >10%); Difficult, who has a minor probability to overtake the leader (about <10%); Out, who is very unlikely to overtake the leader (about <1%).

All this looks pretty convoluted and unnecessarily complicated, but I just want to quantify the prospects of every rider in the title chase.

Basically speaking, the three category have three strong leaders, Rossi, Zarco and Kent. They are all performing very well, but Rossi has a very close competitor in Lorenzo while Zarco only has a true contender in Rabat (who needs to not fail more races) and Kent thoroughly dominates Moto3.

Just to show some examples, according to the former labels Contender/Difficult/Out: Marquez needs to recover 16 points from Rossi in the next race to become a contender (>10% probability to outscore Rossi). If Oliveira loses 25 points respect Kent in the next race, he will be "out" of the championship (<1% to outscore Kent).

"Interestingly", in the next race there could remain only three or four title contenders in Moto3: Kent, Bastianini, Fenati and perhaps Oliveira. It depends on Kent getting a lot of points and Vazquez et alt doing badly.

Uuff!, this post has become longer that I intended, luckily it has reached its end.
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Old 6 Jun 2015, 07:23 (Ref:3545429)   #2
Dani Filth
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Dani Filth should be qualifying in the top 5 on the gridDani Filth should be qualifying in the top 5 on the gridDani Filth should be qualifying in the top 5 on the grid
he's back .. I tought that Lagrangian point changed to a black hole
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Old 12 Jun 2015, 12:17 (Ref:3547918)   #3
Schummy
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LOL!

Daniiiiiiii!

I have been so busy that I feel ashamed to not post here more often :-(

I'll try to post more info from time to time :-]

Anyway, great season as always :-) , except maybe that Kent is butchering the field in Moto3. He is doing awesomely! Fantastic pace.
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Old 27 Jun 2015, 19:32 (Ref:3554318)   #4
Dani Filth
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Dani Filth should be qualifying in the top 5 on the gridDani Filth should be qualifying in the top 5 on the gridDani Filth should be qualifying in the top 5 on the grid
would've like an update after each round .. to see the progress of some of those chances
especially with the wins Lorenzo got and the latest win of Rossi
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Old 23 Jan 2016, 12:14 (Ref:3607305)   #5
Dani Filth
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Dani Filth should be qualifying in the top 5 on the gridDani Filth should be qualifying in the top 5 on the gridDani Filth should be qualifying in the top 5 on the grid
Sorry to bump the thread again ..
I'd like a review of the 2015 season from all classes, especially Moto3 where Oliveira mounted a good challenge to Kent after being "4th" after 6 races.. and of course Motogp ..

so ..anybody has the phone number to Lagrange?
Schummy where art you
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Old 9 Nov 2016, 06:00 (Ref:3686679)   #6
Schummy
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I am *here*

I just posted in another thread a sort of graphical resume of 2016 season before the last race in Valencia.

It has been such a long time since my last post that it's embarrassing Some pretty big changes have got me *rather* busy
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