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Old 4 Jun 2015, 09:13 (Ref:3544831)   #1
Schummy
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Toward the FIM title 2015

After 6 races (a third of the season) there are already some relevant info about who is going and who is not going to fight for the title.

I have used the gap between the leader and each rider and the remaining number of races to draw some "conclusions"(?). I have converted the actual gap to an equivalent one-race-gap, this is the gap they would have if only had one race to go (using some probability properties).
Code:
Rid Gap  Gap1           Cont  Out
ROS   
LOR   6   1.7 Contender   --   --
DOV  35  10.1 Difficult  + 2   --
IAN  37  10.7 Difficult  + 4   --
MAR  49  14.1 Difficult  +16   --
SMI  61  17.6 Difficult   --   --
CRU  71  20.5 Difficult   --  -12
PESP 73  21.1 Difficult   --  -10
VIÑ  82  23.7 Difficult   --  - 1
PET  86  24.8 Difficult   --  + 4

Rid Gap  Gap1           Cont  Out
ZAR                     
RAB  31   8.9 Contender  - 3   --
LUT  41  11.8 Difficult  + 8   --
LOW  42  12.1 Difficult  + 9   --
FOL  52  15.0 Difficult  +19   --
MOR  55  15.9 Difficult  +22   --
RIN  55  15.9 Difficult  +22   --
SIME 60  17.3 Difficult   --  -24

Rid Gap  Gap1           Cont  Out
KEN
BAS  46  13.3 Difficult  +13   --
FEN  57  16.5 Difficult  +24   --
OLI  58  16.7 Difficult  +25  -25
VAZ  64  18.5 Difficult   --  -19
VIÑ  69  19.9 Difficult   --  -14
QUA  72  20.8 Difficult   --  -11
BIN  74  21.4 Difficult   --  - 9
BAG  74  21.4 Difficult   --  - 9
Gap = Current gap.
Gap1 = Equivalent one-race gap.
Cont = points needed to recover/lose respect the leader "to be"/"to not be" a title contender.
Out = points needed to recover/lose respect the leader "to be"/"to not be" in the title chase with a minimal likelihood.

I also wrote a brief categorization in three classes: Contender, who has a good probability to overtake the leader for the title (about >10%); Difficult, who has a minor probability to overtake the leader (about <10%); Out, who is very unlikely to overtake the leader (about <1%).

All this looks pretty convoluted and unnecessarily complicated, but I just want to quantify the prospects of every rider in the title chase.

Basically speaking, the three category have three strong leaders, Rossi, Zarco and Kent. They are all performing very well, but Rossi has a very close competitor in Lorenzo while Zarco only has a true contender in Rabat (who needs to not fail more races) and Kent thoroughly dominates Moto3.

Just to show some examples, according to the former labels Contender/Difficult/Out: Marquez needs to recover 16 points from Rossi in the next race to become a contender (>10% probability to outscore Rossi). If Oliveira loses 25 points respect Kent in the next race, he will be "out" of the championship (<1% to outscore Kent).

"Interestingly", in the next race there could remain only three or four title contenders in Moto3: Kent, Bastianini, Fenati and perhaps Oliveira. It depends on Kent getting a lot of points and Vazquez et alt doing badly.

Uuff!, this post has become longer that I intended, luckily it has reached its end.
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