Toward the title 2012

[Schummy]

Alonso has a bit a nice gap in the WDC classification. One wonders if the gap is meaningful or somehow not very relevant.

Let's do a little gap analysis:

Drv gap  gpr   g1r  past
WEB -40  4.4  13.3  0/11
VET -42  4.7  14.0  1/11
HAM -47  5.2  15.7  0/11
RAI -48  5.3  16.0  0/11

[*]gap = difference with Alonso[*]gpr = points per race needed against Alonso[*]g1r = points needed if there was just one race to go[*]past = times the g1r points was achieved in the past 11 races.

The g1r is the equivalent gap if there was one race remaining. Its is calculated with current gap and number of races to go. It assumes a reasonable independence between races (that's the usual thing to happen in F1 in past seasons). It is calculated as g1r = gap / sqrt(n).

So Webber's situation respect Alonso is equivalent to have a 13.3 points gap before the last race of the season. So, obviously, Webber would have to get above 13.3 points more than Alonso.

The last column "past" says how many times the driver has advantaged Alonso in the required points deficit along the season. Webber never has got 13.3 points over Alonso in any race. Thus, the 13.3 one-race deficit looks hard to overcome.

As can be seen, the others driver are in a similar situation. So, somewhat surprisingly, Alonso seems to have a significant gap already. I.e. he would be the clear favorite for this title.

Obviously, it assumes the rest of season, there is not going to be a dramatic change in teams performances. Saying it in another way, for Alonso to lost the title it looks required some of the following conditions:

- Very bad races for Alonso/Ferrari
- A dramatic decrease of Ferrari performance
- A dramatic increase in Red Bull or McLaren performance.

I have done some supplementary, but approximative, calculations. What's the probability of Webber overcoming the one-race 13.3 deficit? Using some statistical bayesian calculations (with a bit of guessing) I arrived to a probability of 13.3%, just using the 0/11 record in this season. The same 13.3% is valid for Hamilton and Raikkonen. For Vettel, with a 1/11 record, the probability is 20%.

So Webber, Hamilton and Raikkonen, would have, each one, a 13.3% probability to pass Alonso in the WDC, and Vettel would have a 20% of probability.

Even more tentatively I have tried to calculate approximatively the probability of Alonso not being surpassed for anyone, i.e, winning the title. With the data in the former table I have arrived to a probability of title of about 64%. So, in this very speculative way of calculate, Alonso has about a 2/3 probability of getting the title. I am surprised the numbers are so favorably to him.

[Malfunction Junction]

My brain hurts!


Mind you, all it takes is somebody getting a little keen into La Source, taking Alonso out and with all the others finishing one up from their regular positions, you've got a rip snorter of a championship yet again.

[QnickFTW]

Im banking on Vettel's regular 2nd half form which usually comes with a string of dominant races. That should make it pretty damn close between him and Alonso by the time we get to India.

Hamilton will also remain in the mix (albeit lagging probably a step behind) but it could (and should) easily be a 3way battle for the finale.

Webbo? I dont think so.

[Mr V]

Just how costly will Vettels Valencia engine blow up be ?

Fernando said after the last race that he was pleased and surprised to extend the gap, but that was over Mark, Seb bought the deficit down by a fair few points.

Fernando looks good for the title, but his competitors have all had some sort of problem over the first 11 races, Vettels engine blow up, puncture at Maylasia, 20 second penalty at Germany. Lewis's puncture at Germany, tangle with PM at Valencia etc, but surely Alonso's luck has to change a bit too? If it does and the other guys have a strong weekend it will look alot more worrying for him.

[stripedcat]

Originally Posted by QnickFTW

Im banking on Vettel's regular 2nd half form which usually comes with a string of dominant races. That should make it pretty damn close between him and Alonso by the time we get to India.

Yep, I would go along with that. I think that Vettel will come on strong and he is usually the best qualifier.

I don't think that you can discount Webber though. Remember he has a Red Bull car. He seems pretty strong at the moment. I reckon he can stay in the hunt.

I don't think the McLaren drivers are in with a shout. Sure, they will win a few more races, but I do think that their car(despite Hungary) is not up to the Red Bull or Ferrari. Plus, they are perhaps a bit too far behind on points.

[Marbot]

Alonso has been the King of Consistency, and will probably go on to win the title in a car that certainly isn't the best one out there. Driver of the season, so far.

Having said that, statistics show that, under the right circumstances, HRT could go on and win both titles.

[Bononi]

Yeah, Teflonso rocks !


Here he comes to match Senna and other triple champions...

[Born Racer]

Alonso has been mighty this season; there's no doubt about it, but from my non-statistical bystander's view (and thank you Schummy as always for your fascinating insights ), Alonso only needs to bin it or be thrown in the bin for the others to be right back in it. Nonetheless it's good to see Schummy pushing the boat out to show there is more to stats than lies and damned lies.

[Bononi]

Stats are really insane.

[Schummy]

You all are right

Maybe I am lying when I pretend stats doesn't lie

Anyway, Freddy Alonso has a good chance indeed

[Bononi]

Originally Posted by Schummy

Anyway, Freddy Alonso has a good chance indeed

You got it right, friend, got it right !

[JeremySmith]

Brilliant Schummy, you never cease to amaze me with this stuff..

[Spritle]

Hey Schummy:

Let's see how good you REALLY are...

...send me my predictions for next round of the 10 Tenths Predictions Contest

GO Freddy!!!

[Schummy]

I really would want to do it, but forum rules say a host of a game cannot play in another game , just to avoid a possible collusion.

[chunterer]

Originally Posted by Born Racer

Alonso has been mighty this season; there's no doubt about it, but from my non-statistical bystander's view (and thank you Schummy as always for your fascinating insights ), Alonso only needs to bin it or be thrown in the bin for the others to be right back in it.

Yup that's about the size of it.

I can't see Ferrari cocking it up this year like they did 2 years ago for him.

If McLaren can keep this new found pace then they will cause the 2 Red Bulls a serious headache in clawing back at Alonso.

[IceMan_PJN]

It's too early to crown Alonso 2012. A bunch of his gap over the next guys is largely down to crummy luck for the other guys.

Lewis, as an example, has been hindered by team blunders during most of the first half of the season, costing him valuable track time with a list of poor pit stops and costing him an entire race by demoting him from pole position to last on the starting grid, and then there were the DNFs, one of which may have been half his fault but the other being his usual rotten luck. Vettel had the unfortunate DNF previously mentioned in the thread, too. Granted, Alonso didn't come into the season with the best car, and that sucks for him, but that's just the car the team had, whereas some of the rotten luck that befell some other guys wasn't because their car was crap but because crap happens and it just so happened that it happened to them instead of Alonso.

All we need is for Alonso to suffer a handful of blundered pit stops and his engine to die during a race and he's right there with the other guys. It can happen to him just as well as it did to Hamilton or Vettel.

[Marbot]

Originally Posted by IceMan_PJN

It can happen to him just as well as it did to Hamilton or Vettel.

Indeed it could. It could also happen that Vettel, Hamilton, Raikkonen, Webber and Button also get more crap thrown at them. As you say - crap happens. And it's won championships and lost others.

If you were to ask me what the most influential part of F1 is. It's that crap happens.

[Schummy]

Yep, random events do shape titles many times.

The think with Alonso's gap is that the others need Alonso having two blunders more than them, if there is equal performance among them.

[Schummy]

Applying a statistical bootstrapping procedure to F1 (before Singapur) one can get the following (approx) probabilities of contenders overtaking Alonso for the title:

HAM > ALO 3.1%
RAI > ALO 2.0%
VET > ALO 2.5%
WEB > ALO 0.8%

Those percentages are not the probability of those drivers getting the title, but only of surpassing Alonso. To get the title they have to surpass the rest of contenders as well, but i think, anyway, those numbers are relatively similar a probability of title. I think probability of Alonso's title is 90% or more, according to those numbers.

Just to add more numbers in this post , I adjunt this table, with current points, expected points (according to bootstrap procedure), and min-max expected points (with 95% probability).

DRV  SCO  EXP    MIN    MAX
=============================
ALO  179  275.8  232.8  318.8
HAM  142  218.1  171.1  265.1 
RAI  141  217.1  184.1  250.1 
VET  140  214.3  175.9  252.7 
WEB  132  202.0  162.0  242.0 
=============================

[Bononi]

Still, he's the favorite...

[Schummy]

Even if this time there is not any piquet around.

[Schummy]

I did 1000 simulations (with the formerly mentioned bootstrapping procedure) with The main 5 title contenders (before Singapur) and the percetages of winning the title have been:

ALO 92.2%
HAM 6.7%
RAI 0.7%
VET 0.4%
WEB 0.0%

There is the usual margin of error, but it is not important for the big picture. In short, Alonso 92%, Hamilton 7%. The rest of them needs a very unlikely combination of results between them. I'm surprised about Vettel, I'll have to look again the data.

[Schummy]

Redoing with 10000 simulations, for a better approx.

ALO 93.3%
HAM 5.5%
RAI 0.9%
VET 0.3%
WEB <0.1%

Definitively Vettel needs a miraculous combination of results to surpass Alonso, Hamilton and Raikkonen. RIP ;-)

Let's see how it is after Singapore.

[Mr V]

Originally Posted by Schummy

Definitively Vettel needs a miraculous combination of results to surpass Alonso, Hamilton and Raikkonen. RIP ;-)

Let's see how it is after Singapore.

He's 2 points behind Lewis, 1 behind Kimi, but has more failures. He has, imo as much chance as LH and KR, all will have to do well to surpass Fernando.

[Schummy]

It is not as simple as counting points. It is about combination of results between them. Perhaps calculations shows a better pattern of results for HAM so far in the season.