Probability of Win 2012

[Schummy]

Probability of getting a win in next GP (after data from Japan).

     AUS MALwCHI BAH SPA MON CAN EUR GBR GER HUN BEL ITA SIN JAP      PoW    EW   P1W
VET   2   -   -   8   -   -   -   -   -   -   -   2   -   8   8  21%  20%   1.00  67%
HAM   -   -   -   -   -   -   8   -   -   -   8   -   8   -   -  18%  17%   0.85  60%
ALO   -   8   -   -   2   -   -   8   2   8   -   -   -   -   -  17%  16%   0.80  59%
BUT   8   -   2   -   -   -   -   -   -   2   -   8   -   2   -  14%  13%   0.65  51%
WEB   -   -   -   -   -   8   -   -   8   -   -   -   -   -   -  10%  10%   0.50  40%
ROS   -   -   8   -   -   2   -   -   -   -   -   -   -   -   -   5%   5%   0.25  23%
MAL   -   -   -   -   8   -   -   -   -   -   -   -   -   -   -   4%   4%   0.20  20%
RAI   -   -   -   2   -   -   -   2   -   -   2   -   -   -   -   4%   4%   0.20  18%
PER   -   2   -   -   -   -   -   -   -   -   -   -   2   -   -   3%   3%   0.15  13%
MAS   -   -   -   -   -   -   -   -   -   -   -   -   -   -   2   2%   2%   0.10  10%
GRO   -   -   -   -   -   -   2   -   -   -   -   -   -   -   -   1%   1%   0.05   7%
AO    -   -   -   -   -   -   -   -   -   -   -   -   -   -   -   0%   0.3% 0.015  2%

(Sorry for the tiny size of the characters, but the table is very wide)

A bit of explanation of the table:
- 8 and 2 mean first and second position in the GP.
- PoW is... of course, Probability of Win (in the next GP).
- EW is Expected number of wins in the next 5 GPs.
- P1W is Probability of winning at least one race in the next 5 GPs.
-AO means Any Other driver (for instance, Senna's prob of getting at least one win in the next 2 races is 2%)

Same data about teams:

     PoW    EW   P1W
RBR  30%   1.50  83%
MCL  30%   1.50  83%
FER  18%   0.90  63%
MER   5%   0.25  24%
LOT   5%   0.25  23%
WIL   4%   0.20  20%
SAU   3%   0.15  15%
AO    0.6% 0.03   3%

Highlights (?):

• Vettel is the driver with the highest PoW, not far ahead of Hamilton or Alonso.
• Alonso is only the third more probable winner. His strong point is regularity... if a Lotus is not nearby.
• It's probable at least one future win for Vettel, Hamilton, Alonso and Button. And Webber is not far behind.
• Button's PoW is barely lower than the top three drivers.
• Expected number of future wins for Vettel is just 1. (Reliability? Bad performances in certain kind of tracks?)
• Hamilton is irregular and has not a lot of points but he maintains a high PoW. It isn't unlikely that he ends the season being the driver with more wins.
• It is not probable but not unlikely at least one future win for Mercedes, Lotus, Williams or Sauber. It is very unlikely for any other lesser team.
• Vettel, Hamilton and Alonso are the three outstanding drivers of the season, but their collective PoW is only approx 50%, i.e. there is a 1/2 chance of a win for another driver. It is a consequence of the level of uncertainty of this season.

[QnickFTW]

My prediction is that only 4 drivers will be in the 200 club by the end of the season:

Seb - 273
LH - 249
FA - 248
KR - 223

[Aysedasi]

How did you work out those points? Is there any 'science' in there like Schummy's?

[Razzzor]

Originally Posted by QnickFTW

My prediction is that only 4 drivers will be in the 200 club by the end of the season:

Seb - 273
LH - 249
FA - 248
KR - 223

KR might only just get into the 200s. But I don't think Hamilton will catch Alonso now. Not with 5 races to go and 40 points. And not considering Ferrari was actually faster than McLaren at Japan and RB have a return to form which will prevent McLaren from winning every race.

I think Seb will win the title, but it'll definitely be under 25 points difference to Alonso and come down to the last round. RB have been fast the last 2 races, but actually only marginally faster than Ferrari. Though Seb probably was cruising at Japan. So RB will probably will still have some races they won't be as quick in. Just my guesses though.

[Bononi]

So Seb is in route for the WDC... brilliant.

[Aysedasi]

Or not....

Probably one or the other.

Can I bet on that?

[Bononi]

Originally Posted by Aysedasi

Or not....

Probably one or the other.

Can I bet on that?

Never. It's not worth losing your money because of that...

[Aysedasi]

Spoilsport.......