[Driver] Probability of Win 2010

[Schummy]

The "typical" probability-of-win stat, adapted to this season.

The last column is the estimated Probability of Win for each driver, according to results of the six firsts GPs (and some arbitrary parameters). At the end is the table for teams PoW.

DRIVER INIT   BAH   AUS   MAL   CHI   SPA   MON   SS   PoW
                                                           
WEB     5%                0.2         0.8   0.8   39%   28% 
VET     5%                0.8               0.2   20%   15% 
ALO     5%    0.8                     0.2         18%   14% 
BUT     5%          0.8         0.8               15%   12% 
MAS     5%    0.2                                  3.5%  4% 
HAM     5%                      0.2                2.0%  3%
KUB     5%          0.2                            1.8%  3%
An-Other5%                                         0%    1.6% 
                                                             
Newness       0.77  0.81  0.86  0.90  0.95  1                            
Weather       1     0.5   1     0.5   1     1                      
Weight        0.77  0.41  0.86  0.45  0.95  1

Teams:
Red Bull 43%
Ferrari  18%
McLaren  15%
Renault   5%
An-Other  3%

I think some of those numbers need more explanation, but the most important(?) numbers are those PoW percentages indeed.

[herowassenna]

Some people seem to love their stats!!
Numbers can be made to mean anything...
50%?
Well theres a 50% chance of rain. Yep, but theres also a 50% chance of no rain...

[Adam43]

Good stuff, as usual.

And as I keep saying, Webber owns Vettel.

[Marbot]

Well that's it then! Hand Webber and RedBull their trophies now, and let's all watch something that's a little bit less predictable.

[Schummy]

Don't forget gods. Zeus, Athena and others(*) always have good fun bending future events.

(*) put your guess for "others" in that space.

[blaffer]

@Schummy:
If Kubica has a PoW of 3% and Renault has a PoW of 5%, what does that tell about Petrov?

[herowassenna]

Originally Posted by blaffer

@Schummy:
If Kubica has a PoW of 3% and Renault has a PoW of 5%, what does that tell about Petrov?

That he's Stalin nephew's best friend but 1 removed neighbour from across the street who knows someone at the state circus who attended the state school and played chess with Kasparov's nephew who knew about Apollo moon landing conspiracy....

[Schummy]

Originally Posted by blaffer

@Schummy:
If Kubica has a PoW of 3% and Renault has a PoW of 5%, what does that tell about Petrov?

Well, it tells poor Petrov is not worse than many others, he has a PoW like any other "AnOther driver", i.e. 1.6%

Any driver who has not reached 2nd position has a "residual" PoW of 1.6%, it is another way to say it is very unlikely by now.

[GTRMagic]

Originally Posted by Marbot

Well that's it then! Hand Webber and RedBull their trophies now, and let's all watch something that's a little bit less predictable.

Awesome

Go Potsie!!

[Schummy]

Updating after Valencia.

DRIVER  PoW  CW  EFW  IFW
=========================                                      
HAM     23%   2  1.8  0-4    
VET     20%   2  1.6  0-3
WEB     20%   2  1.6  0-3
BUT     13%   2  1.0  0-2
ALO     10%   1  0.8  0-2
MAS      2%   0  0.2  0-1
KUB      2%   0  0.1  0-0
AnOther  0.8% 0  0.1  0-0
AllOther10%   0  0.8  0-2
=========================

TEAM   PoW
==========
RBR    40%
MCL    36%
FER    12%
REN     3%
AnOther 2%
AllOther10%
==========

DRIVER = Driver
PoW = Probability of winning (race)
CW = Current number of wins
EFW = Expected future wins in the remainder of season
IFW = Probable (95%) interval of future wins in the remainder of season
AnOther = Any individual driver not otherwise mentioned
AllOther = The set of AnOthers drivers (i.e. everyone except the 7 mentioned)
(In teams table "AnOther" means any individual team except the 4 teams mentioned)

Basically, it would be expected that LH, SV and MW will account for about 5 wins in the remainder 8 GPs; JB and FA would get another expected 2 wins and the remainder GP is expected to go to to another driver apart from those 7 mentioned (the typical surprise win...).

They are just math expectations, probable intervals (IFW) account for reasonable variations from those expected values.

[shiny side up!]

Very interesting that the maths say it is likely that someone outside of the usual suspects is likely to win one of the remaining races... I wonder who and where!

[Schummy]

Originally Posted by shiny side up!

Very interesting that the maths say it is likely that someone outside of the usual suspects is likely to win one of the remaining races... I wonder who and where!

The boring rational mind would say Kubica, Massa, perhaps Rosberg or Michael.

But one SC period brought Kobayashi until 3rd position until very late in the race (ok, he had to pit for tyres). So, a bit of chaos or a wet race could bring a Force India, Koba or the new Williams to a surprising win.

Anyway, I'd like the one who wins a race were the guy in your avatar