[WEC] Porsche Prototype Discussion

[chernaudi]

It was originally supposed to be good for the span of the 2014 rules ('14-16) I believe. Then the program may've gotten a one year stay of execution through 2017 due to Audi and Toyota having new cars last season (pushed back the new rules until 2018, then 2020).

As I've mentioned, just because Porsche have publicly committed until end of next season doesn't mean that they'll be there next season. Audi committed reportedly until the end of this season originally, then they pulled out at the end of last season. And what Audi/Audi Sport did does IMO smack of them making their decision well in advance of when they went public with it. Most of these decisions like this are usually made at least a few months in advance.

If Porsche is making such a decision, maybe Le Mans might be the determining factor on to continue the program until season's end, or extend it beyond that. And just because that's the rumor (of them leaving), it could be Toyota scaling back or leaving for all we know at this stage, or it might not even involve LMP1.

Of course, this round started because of a John Dagys tweet where he posted that ominous news might be coming, but gave no hints as to what it may be, and I don't think that Dagys has commented further as of yet.

But as Akrapovic said, it's not like the days of the Audi R8 where semi-factory privateer teams can just buy the cars and run them with factory support. Because of the hybrid tech and other stuff on these cars, expecting that to happen is a virtual impossibility.

We just have to wait for what happens, if the news even comes at all. I've even been asking friends on social media if they know anything, and they don't have any clear answers, either.

[Aysedasi]

Originally Posted by chernaudi

Of course, this round started because of a John Dagys tweet where he posted that ominous news might be coming, but gave no hints as to what it may be, and I don't think that Dagys has commented further as of yet.

And the rumour-mill has been in overdrive ever since, no doubt as Dagys intended. From changes to GTEPro BOP, to reducing LMP2 speeds to Porsche or Toyota leaving - or both. Still, it all adds to the post count on forums like this....

[bobec]

Is it just me, or did the post-2013 hybrid rules never meet the expectations everyone had. I twas supposed to be Audi, Toyota, Porsche, and also Nissan, maybe with the hope of others joining as well. And we didn't quite see it happen.
The clear superiority of the max hybrid+turbo IC concept has been discussed already, and that wasn't supposed to be that way either - it was to be all about diversity.

But still looking forward to the race. Toyota looks very strong and this could be their year.

What would worry me is the possibility that Porsche have already decided to leave, and have already done so half-way, not committing 100% to either LM, WEC, or both. Yes, they would love to win LM, but with Toyota at the top of their game, and with the 919 at the end of its life cycle, it would take lots of commitment, including development on the car. Motivation of the drivers, pit crews, engineers and mechanics would also be an issue if they have decided to terminate their involvement. So there is the possibility that we'll have a very one-sided LM race, and possibly WEC season, during what could be the last year that we have at least some LMP1 competition, at least for now.

[deggis]

Originally Posted by Akrapovic

How long was the Porsche project meant to be? Spyderman probably knows off the top of his head, but I seem to recall 4 or something? We're currently in year 4. Is it just a case of this is as long as the project was meant to run?

In 2015 it was extended to 2018. Was the original greenlighting only for 2014-15 then? In any case, that 4 years would be now void anyway since there was this extension.

[bobec]

Originally Posted by chernaudi

And just because that's the rumor (of them leaving), it could be Toyota scaling back or leaving for all we know at this stage

Not trying to be called out by some for potentially spreading fake news here (), but I bet that if one of the LMP1 teams has decided to leave, it won't be Toyota, at least not this season. They are fast, they have invested in their team, and they don't have a real-world reason to leave, like VAG or Peugeot back in 2012. To me Toyota does not look like a team that has made the decision to leave, but Porsche sort of does, if I had to pick one.

[TF110]

I think Porsche stays to 2018 at least. If they leave then there's a bunch of private teams coming next year to fall back on at least. The ACO will hit Toyota with some hard negative eot or something if they stay by themselves. I think most likely is that they'll stay on and Toyota will to 2019 and we will get an announcement of a new manufacturer either this year or next.

[Spyderman]

Here is the/an article in Motorsport Aktuell about the 919. I dont see anything mentioned about Porsche leaving :http://www.auto-motor-und-sport.de/m...-12079213.html

[chernaudi]

It wasn't hinted at online, it's in their print mag, which I only think you can get in the EU.

[chernaudi]

Originally Posted by bobec

Is it just me, or did the post-2013 hybrid rules never meet the expectations everyone had. I twas supposed to be Audi, Toyota, Porsche, and also Nissan, maybe with the hope of others joining as well. And we didn't quite see it happen.
The clear superiority of the max hybrid+turbo IC concept has been discussed already, and that wasn't supposed to be that way either - it was to be all about diversity.

That's how I understood the rules as presented in 2013. But the ERS Incentive basically killed that idea and painted everyone into the max MJ you can run corner, and that cranked up cost due to everyone having to build new cars right off the bat, Audi and Toyota had to build new cars for last season, and if not for that and the Audi Sport pull out, the current rules package was supposed to be dead and buried at the end of last season.

What the ACO did in practice might not have been so bad if the rules package was good for say 5 or 6 years from the get go, or if they didn't have the ERS Incentive.

Not everyone who wants to run LMP1 can afford or wants to race a hybrid, and they don't want to spend Toyota's budget of reportedly nearly $100 million that it got bumped up to for last season and this season, let alone well over $150 million for Audi and nearly $200 million for Porsche since they came back in.

[hondafan37]

Sincerely after reading s lot of opinions on the possible retirement of Porsche in these last days, I think if this really happens, it can be something positive.
Budgets of more than $ 100 million are unsustainable, and no one new to come and play under those conditions.
The ACO is going to have to be honest with the rules in order to build a competitive car on a reasonable budget and there will be a lot more chances that new cars will compete.

[TF110]

Originally Posted by chernaudi

That's how I understood the rules as presented in 2013. But the ERS Incentive basically killed that idea and painted everyone into the max MJ you can run corner, and that cranked up cost due to everyone having to build new cars right off the bat, Audi and Toyota had to build new cars for last season, and if not for that and the Audi Sport pull out, the current rules package was supposed to be dead and buried at the end of last season.

What the ACO did in practice might not have been so bad if the rules package was good for say 5 or 6 years from the get go, or if they didn't have the ERS Incentive.

Not everyone who wants to run LMP1 can afford or wants to race a hybrid, and they don't want to spend Toyota's budget of reportedly nearly $100 million that it got bumped up to for last season and this season, let alone well over $150 million for Audi and nearly $200 million for Porsche since they came back in.

They didn't have to build new cars. Porsche has had the same design for it's entire wec campaign iirc. The battery had to be updated, but the first year they joined it was in the 6mj class. The very next year they went 8mj. Battery tech is at a point where doing 8mj isn't something unheard of or cutting edge. The one thing that I can criticize is that the lower fuel flows are forcing teams to go small turbo engines. And what source are you getting 100 million for Toyota from? The last I read, it was a quarter of their 2009 F1 budget ($300 million) which equals $75 million.

[chernaudi]

They spent over $400 million in the past prior to that, and you don't design and build a brand new car basically from scratch, and a year earlier than intended, cheap. They have to be spending more than $80+ million, even if this year's car is a development of last year's. Audi and Peugeot may've done it in 2011, but the tech was a lot simpler, even back then.

The biggest thing that raised costs to everyone having twice the budgets they had pre 2014 was the ERS Incentive and fuel flow rules, which made it easier to go with running huge hybrid systems, even if the cost to develop them quickly was equally as huge. If the rules weren't originally set to expire three years after they went into effect, cost could've been cut due to spreading out the expense over a longer period of time.

That's something that I don't think that the current ACO administration get: you don't get teams in by having three year plans that often involve extensive rules changes. The Audi era may've come after the exodus from LMP900/LMGTP by teams to F1 (Toyota and BMW) or other series (Nissan and Mercedes-Benz), but the rules were stable, and anyone who wanted to come in could've, and probably gotten use out of the rules, though the failure of Cadillac probably turned teams off, as well as the fact that Audi Sport were selling customer cars, and that new rules by 2003 were being phased in (albeit progressively--LMP900s were legal until 2005, and LMP900s converted to LMP1s were legal though 2006).

Even first gen LMP1 (2004-2010) were fairly stable until the ACO made some IMO boneheaded moves (wing span reduction in 2009, constant tinkering with BOP as well just a couple of years prior to a major rules overhaul, that again lasted only three years).

Granted, such a thing may appeal to a factory team that wants to be in short term, but it doesn't help those who want a stable rules package longer term, let alone private teams.

Personally, I think that the ACO are starting to reap what they sowed. They already lost Audi, and they are possibly at risk of losing Porsche. Even if Audi and/or Porsche come back in 2020, that doesn't help their short term plans, which sadly in my opinion, they set themselves up for the failure of through trying for instant gratification.

[Speed-King]

Well, here's something semi-substantial:

http://sportscar365.com/lemans/wec/p...1-exit-rumors/

Confirms that there was a report in MSA, though....

[chernaudi]

And it comes from the same guy who predicted the Audi Sport pull out a few months before it happened, and the issues that Nissan had.

[Acid09]

Seidl's comments read like Ullrich's last year (we haven't heard anything, we keep on working etc.)

Audi's motives (even though they were never really upfront about them) were understandable, in the current climate it simply made no sense to promote Diesel anymore, it would have been bad PR.

If Porsche pulls out solely because they're getting beat by Toyota that would be a rather weak reason to leave. Porsche always prides themselves on their competitive spirit and their owning of Le Mans and the prospect of possibly getting beat once already makes them think of running for the hills?

Disappointing, to say the least. Toyota didn't leave after being hopelessly behind in 2015, they sat on their behinds and built a better car, for less money than Porsche too.

[chernaudi]

Promoting diesel or not (which Audi haven't really done since 2011 and only got brought up in BOP discussions since then), the fact that Audi won 6 races in three years from '14-16 (when they won that many in 2013, while spending half as much money a season than they did in '14 and afterwards) didn't do the program many favors, including the fact that they won LM only once over that three year period and ended each year second in the manufacturers' title chase.

Basically, this is just the factory teams getting stale and tired of the current regs, and they want something cheaper but with more routes to doing well, instead of being painted in one corner where the only really big route of development is expensive to make progress quickly.

Not to mention that Toyota have been successful in the current regs on a budget similar to what Audi Sport and Peugeot had in 2011, which though a lot of money, pales in comparison to Porsche's alleged $200 million (what did I say about cutting losses until something better comes along)?

This is just the ACO reaping what they sowed. I won't believe it until Porsche say they're pulling out, but things aren't very encouraging at this stage. Not to mention that Audi and Porsche don't IMO have much left to prove in endurance racing.

[Spyderman]

here is the article in question:http://www.auto-motor-und-sport.de/m...-12158709.html

[Speed-King]

Originally Posted by Spyderman

here is the article in question:http://www.auto-motor-und-sport.de/m...-12158709.html

Quick and dirty translation - you should get the gist, but I don't have time to polish it right now.

Future of the WEC: New developments in the LMP1 class

Officially, the FIA and the ACO are still trying to save the existing hybrid LMP1s. But even before the 24h of Le Mans it became more and more clear, that the LMP1-Light-class as well as the American DPI-class will grow, whereas the question marks behind the current LMP1-manufacturers entries are getting bigger and bigger.

It's a complicated situation: The ACO and FIA have been trying to secure the future of the hybrid LMP1s since Audi's exit in October 2016 by getting Peugeot to enter the class. But in the weeks before the season's biggest race at Le Mans it has become increasingly obvious that this Plan A will not work out: No manufacturer - and that includes Peugeot is willing to provide a budget of the magnitude currently spent by Toyota and Porsche. At the same time, teams and manufacturers in Europe and the US are preparing for a future that could be called a Plan B: According to these deliberations, the ACO and the FIA could on the one hand open up the LMP1-Lights-Class for manufacturer entries - which would drop the costs in the top class in one swoop from €150 million to under €50 million. Secondly, there have been leaks in June that suggest that there could be more entries in the DPI-class in North America - which is based on upgraded and manufacturer branded LMP2-cars.

DPI: Are Joest planning a DPI-project?

An important candidate [for an involvement in the DPI class] are Joest Racing. The former Audi factory squad are being talked about as a potential DPI entrant since January by American sources. Team-director Ralf Jüttner has always been open about the team's American ambitions. A DPI-program would be financially viable and the Joest team has built up an excellent reputation in the US during the ALMS years. At the Le Mans test day we were told by [people working for] components suppliers, that Joest is considering a DPI entry with a car based on an Oreca chassis. Supposedly wind tunnel work on a car is already under way - and there also have been orders for [relevant car] components.

The big questions is: Will Joest get the blessing of Audi? To built a DPI-car, an engine by a big manufacturer needs to be homologated. This can be a racing engine, such as the one from the GT3-class, or a production engine. US sources suggest that Joest could be using the 2.9-Liter-V6-Biturbo from the Audi RS5 as the DPI powerplant.
Ford could also get involved when the current project with the Ford GT has run its course in 2019: Chip Ganassi is supposedly trying to persuade his partners at Ford to commit to a DPI as a follow up program. Sources within IMSA claim that the series organizers have been trying to convince Ford by suggesting that they would also be "well prepared from a global perspective".

This can only mean that the chances are increasing that a mix of LMP1-Light and DPI will be the top class at Le Mans and in the WEC from 2020 onwards. [Conversations with the] Ford GT-factory pilots support the argument that the GT-program will not be continued beyong 2019. Ford-Performance-Boss Dave Pericak told our American colleague John Dagys (of sportscar365.com) regarding the company's DPI plans: "We always have an eye on it and if and when something like that would make sense. That is not the case right now, but there are some interesting developments in that area." Until this interview Ford had always denied any interest in a DPI program.

LMP1: Are Porsche leaving?

The current state of the LMP1-class makes such a scenario more likely. Insiders are adamant that Peugeot will not enter LMP1 with a budget of €100 million. And especially the future of Porsche has everyone worried - and for more than one reason: First of all, Porsche has fallen between the chairs [is that an English expression?] with the changes to the roadmap for a new rule set: Expensive developments such as a third recuperation system had to be binned. The near future does also not look good since Porsche have the oldest car in LMP1 and thus little room for improvements. The test day at Le Mans showed this clearly. Consequently, Porsche would have to build a new car for the transition period till 2020 - even though there are big question marks behind the Peugeot entry and the continued participation of Toyota. And another problem: building a new car for 2018 would be impossible - hence Porsche would risk being uncompetitive again next year with the old car.

Finally, Porsche's trust in the WEC organizers has been eroded rather significantly, not the least because of the current argument about the legality of the new Toyota. Already at the preseason test at Monza, this combination of factors had lead to wild speculations about a possible Porsche pull out at the end of 2017. In the weeks before Le Mans, these rumors have become louder rather than quieter: And we all know: Where there's smoke, there's fire.

[broadrun96]

If, and yes that's a hypothetical if, Porsche were to pull out at the end of the season, what would that mean for the WEC in 2018? Don't the rules state 2 manufacturers are needed for the WEC as an FIA championship? But rumors have to be good for the new LMP1-P manufacturers moving cars or at least getting interest in their cars for 2018 and overall wins.

[Akrapovic]

Yeah but all it takes is WEC to ask Ginetta to field a works car and that's sorted. It wouldn't be any good but it'd meet the criteria for a championship. Hybrids would be the problem.

[broadrun96]

Originally Posted by Akrapovic

Yeah but all it takes is WEC to ask Ginetta to field a works car and that's sorted. It wouldn't be any good but it'd meet the criteria for a championship. Hybrids would be the problem.

Would Ginetta in LMP1-P met the rule or is the rule based on subscription to the LMP1-H class? Honestly don't know but I'm the ACO/WEC are working on that just in case.

[Akrapovic]

Typed out a post, but moved it to the LMP rules thread so we don't hijack the Porsche one.

http://tentenths.com/forum/showthrea...74#post3741174

[Spyderman]

http://sportscar365.com/lemans/wec/p...1-exit-rumors/

[bobec]

Originally Posted by TF110

They didn't have to build new cars. Porsche has had the same design for it's entire wec campaign iirc. The battery had to be updated, but the first year they joined it was in the 6mj class. The very next year they went 8mj

Yeah, but it seems their design is at a point where it has little to show. I think, ideally, they would have wanted a new car for 2017. Still it would be interesting to see what they can do with it at LM

Originally Posted by TF110

And what source are you getting 100 million for Toyota from? The last I read, it was a quarter of their 2009 F1 budget ($300 million) which equals $75 million.

This sounds like a conversation we've already had
I would still point out the fact that TMG is the only team in LMP1H that has its own top of the line wind tunnel.

[bobec]

Originally Posted by Acid09

If Porsche pulls out solely because they're getting beat by Toyota that would be a rather weak reason to leave. Porsche always prides themselves on their competitive spirit and their owning of Le Mans and the prospect of possibly getting beat once already makes them think of running for the hills?

Disappointing, to say the least. Toyota didn't leave after being hopelessly behind in 2015, they sat on their behinds and built a better car, for less money than Porsche too.

Disappointing it is, but in the end you want to be able to be competitive. Like you said, Toyota built a new, better car after 2015. But as described in the article, a new car is out of the question for Porsche, at least until 2019. I think the new car should have come for 2017. I wonder if it means something that it didn't (less commitment, thinking of pulling out, etc).