[Rules] Future Rule Changes

[bjohnsonsmith]

Originally Posted by ApexTurtle

The only reason Red Bull can't compete for wins is simply because Ferrari and Mercedes refuse to sell them engines.

I'm not so sure about that. Ferrari, haven't won a race since Belgium last year and apart from Mercedes the top team last year, with a Mercedes engine, was Force India whose best result was 3rd at Azerbaijan with Perez driving. If both sets of WCC points are added together, they would have been 5th overall.

[chillibowl]

Imo the combination of a RB chassis, Max, and either a Merc or Ferrari engine and you have a title winner/legitimate challenger to LH's Merc.

Unfortunately though i cant prove it.

[Richard C]

Originally Posted by Anyopenroad

That isn't what I said. Only three teams have the necessary budget to compete for wins. Of those three, Mercedes is simply better than Red Bull and Ferrari. Those are two separate issues which tend to get conflated.

Issue #1: three teams spend so much more than the rest that no-one besides those three can complete for wins or even podiums. This is a problem the sport needs to sort out.

Issue #2: of the three big-spending teams, Mercedes dominates to an extraordinary extent. That isn't a problem created by the sport, it's a problem created by Mercedes and Red Bull/Ferrari's differing levels of competence.

These get conflated because #2 exacerbates #1. We'd be much less concerned about #1 if the three top teams were all on a par and duked it out race after race with six drivers all equally likely to win.

Apologies. This post is more clarifying. The earlier left plenty of room for interpretation or assumption of painting with a wide brush (i.e. all teams and not just a discussion about the top three).

I will agree with #1. I think #2 is more nuanced than you say. Or rather I say that it's more complex than one word... "Competence". But if you were to try to wrap it all up under one word that is close enough.

Personally I have no beef with Mercedes. I think they are an extraordinarily well run team (very good management) with a large budget. And both are required for success.

Richard

[chillibowl]

i dont have numbers but RB may only now be close to Ferrari and Merc because of Honda's input. with Renault they were a ways off (i want to say 100mil less a year).

and i believe, Ferrari have only recently stepped up their spending (and staffing) game...Merc's advantage is thus somewhat based on having a bigger budget and staff leading into this and last season.

basically Ferrari and RB will need to outspend and out hire Merc to catch up to them.

anyways, im think we all agree that this is an untenable model.

[ApexTurtle]

Originally Posted by chillibowl

i dont have numbers but RB may only now be close to Ferrari and Merc because of Honda's input.

Actually they have been further off than last year at pretty much every race. But that was expected.

[crmalcolm]

Originally Posted by ApexTurtle

The only reason Red Bull can't compete for wins is because they rely on customer engines.

*fixed that for you*

[Taxi645]

Originally Posted by ApexTurtle

I think you missed quite a few of those promises then The Honda fanboys are invading everything it seems, wow!

Calling me a fanboy says more about you than it does about me.

[S griffin]

Well I’m sure everyone cam agree to disagree on here

[Richard C]

Originally Posted by ApexTurtle

Actually they have been further off than last year at pretty much every race. But that was expected.

We all have our opinions.

My opinion is they are doing better than last year. I would argue there is evidence of this. "Fanboy" or not.

Richard

[wnut]

Originally Posted by Richard Casto

We all have our opinions.

My opinion is they are doing better than last year. I would argue there is evidence of this. "Fanboy" or not.

Richard

How so Richard?
The results would seem to indicate not.
Mercedes are perfect this year, ignoring the fastest lap gimmick, last year they had won one race at this stage.

[Adam43]

It would be nice to think they could play with that. Although the initial spec. Is to match current performance.

[Taxi645]

Originally Posted by wnut

How so Richard?
The results would seem to indicate not.
Mercedes are perfect this year, ignoring the fastest lap gimmick, last year they had won one race at this stage.

There's more to a teams performance than just engine performance. Having your aerodynamics,tyres, drivers and strategy working optimally to name a few all very important obviously.

[Richard C]

Originally Posted by wnut

How so Richard?
The results would seem to indicate not.
Mercedes are perfect this year, ignoring the fastest lap gimmick, last year they had won one race at this stage.

Sorry, my mistake, I thought we were talking about Honda's performance not Mercedes

Richard

[ApexTurtle]

Originally Posted by Richard Casto

We all have our opinions.

My opinion is they are doing better than last year. I would argue there is evidence of this. "Fanboy" or not.

Richard

There is no evidence for that though, there is for the contrary. I won't be too long since this is slightly off-topic, but in all races and qualifying sessions so far, Red Bull is further off the fastest car than last year (except Baku's race, but that's for obvious reasons ). In some cases by some margin, especially in Bahrain. The numbers simply don't lie, and that's even with considering Verstappen is driving much better than last year. Now, in the long run reliability will be more important, and in that Red Bull is going to be in big trouble too because they've already introduced a second spec engine in the third race due to fundamental reliability issues. The honeymoon period will nog last long and knowing Red Bull this will become a huge drama again. I suspect even so much so that Honda will reconsider staying for the new 2021 regulations...

[Richard C]

Originally Posted by ApexTurtle

There is no evidence for that though, there is for the contrary. I won't be too long since this is slightly off-topic, but in all races and qualifying sessions so far, Red Bull is further off the fastest car than last year (except Baku's race, but that's for obvious reasons ). In some cases by some margin, especially in Bahrain. The numbers simply don't lie, and that's even with considering Verstappen is driving much better than last year. Now, in the long run reliability will be more important, and in that Red Bull is going to be in big trouble too because they've already introduced a second spec engine in the third race due to fundamental reliability issues. The honeymoon period will nog last long and knowing Red Bull this will become a huge drama again. I suspect even so much so that Honda will reconsider staying for the new 2021 regulations...

As mentioned above, it's more than just the power unit that determines the race results. Why isn't William's beating Red Bull? Why isn't TR right there with RBR? Plus, everyone is not static in their development. Especially the benchmark. So it's hard to make comparisons year to year. Doable, but not always easy. But it you selectively exclude good Honda powered performances, that sure helps you make your case! I have no illusions regarding where Honda is. They are behind Mercedes and Ferrari. Probably ahead of Renault. They most likely lack ultimate power (probably not terribly far off), drivability and better qualifying performance. Given we are not far in the season, it's hard to say for sure, but reliability looks good, but not as good as the benchmark. However, I am not sure how anyone can argue they went backwards in performance from last year.

This is off topic for this thread. I say take this to the Honda thread and if I have time (which is short for me as I just started a new job, but I will try) I will post a more in depth reasoning.

Lastly... Regarding the use of "Fanboy". Please show me examples where calling someone a Fanboy is not means in a derogatory, disrespectful or dismissive way. Attack the post (as you have directly above with your arguments.... thank you) and not the poster (derogatory names).

Richard

[ApexTurtle]

Originally Posted by Richard Casto

So it's hard to make comparisons year to year. Doable, but not always easy.

But it's also the only even remotely objective measure we have, hence why I focus on it. Everything else is speculation and bias. And yes, I am accusing the original poster I quoted of the latter, as I have you and you have admitted to it. We can discuss this further elsewhere as you say. It is though, I feel, relevant to the current topic too. Honda and Red Bull will not succeed until at least 2021, and there is a large possibility the current power units will be used even then. One could really start to wonder why Honda (and also Renault, although they do have a factory team at least) keeps bothering. It has certainly salvaged its reputation and has created an online cult following, but that's as far as they can go before they should start winning something. Can they wait two more years for that?

[Richard C]

Originally Posted by ApexTurtle

But it's also the only even remotely objective measure we have, hence why I focus on it.

No, it's a cheap and easy comparison. Granted it's used, but it's not good and extremely poor in this scenario. You are trying to look at 2018 Renault powered RBR vs 2019 Honda powered RBR to make broad conclusions about Honda. While you ignore the slew of other important factors that span the two seasons. First and most importantly regulation changes to the car. RBR has clearly pointed the finger at themselves that the 2019 car is not what it should be. Other changes are drivers with RBR plus the fact the Mercedes and Ferrari continue to push forward. I think an argument can be made that RBR as a whole has gone backwards.

Originally Posted by ApexTurtle

Everything else is speculation and bias.

Actually no. I mean, most of what we say is speculation, but if someone does the data analysis the truth can be extracted. RBR and Honda know for sure if Honda went forwards, backwards or remained the same as they have a level of raw and pertinent data that we don't. I have generally been waiting for some of those F1 fans who have a background in statistical analytics to post some of their analysis of the 2019 season, but last time I checked the most recent is based upon previous season testing. If I have time I will search later today. I do this stuff for a living. I know this type of knee jerk off the cuff analysis we are doing is highly inaccurate.

Originally Posted by ApexTurtle

And yes, I am accusing the original poster I quoted of the latter, as I have you and you have admitted to it.

Yes, you called me a Fanboy previously and I called you on it. Please don't confuse a "fan" (which I freely admit) with "fanboy". I hazard a guess that we are all "fans" of something or someone in F1. See my prior comment about fanboy being a dismissive and derogatory term. Continue to do so and I will continue to call you out and point out it is inappropriate.

Originally Posted by ApexTurtle

can discuss this further elsewhere as you say.

Honda in F1 thread...
https://tentenths.com/forum/showthread.php?t=153896f

Originally Posted by ApexTurtle

It is though, I feel, relevant to the current topic too. Honda and Red Bull will not succeed until at least 2021, and there is a large possibility the current power units will be used even then. One could really start to wonder why Honda (and also Renault, although they do have a factory team at least) keeps bothering. It has certainly salvaged its reputation and has created an online cult following, but that's as far as they can go before they should start winning something. Can they wait two more years for that?

Back on topic. All valid questions and speculation. I expect the new power unit regulations to look similar, but not identical to the current one. But who know. I make no predictions as to how that might work out. If pressed, I wouldn't bet against Mercedes.

I do very much believe we can see enough parity that the deciding factor is more about the rest of the equation (team, chassis, driver) than just the power unit. See prior comments and Mercedes vs. William's and RBR vs. TR.

Richard

[S griffin]

RBR are doing so much better with Honda than Renault, but how long will it last? It’s made a good start for sure. We’ll see if they are here for the long term with rule changes coming up

I guess there are those that want to see RBR go well and they are doing alright so far. Honda have kept them going

The season is still young though. There is still a long way to go. Merc seem to have it in the bag atm and are leaving Ferrari to shame and RBR are hanging in there. Anyway moving on

[wnut]

I see the push is now on to delay the sign off on the 2021 regulations.

https://www.racefans.net/2019/05/07/...ules-sign-off/

Doubtless, delay delay delay and then postpone the implementation for another few years. Classic!

It is not like we have not had 5 years to think about where the rules are going.

[Casper]

Originally Posted by wnut

I see the push is now on to delay the sign off on the 2021 regulations.

https://www.racefans.net/2019/05/07/...ules-sign-off/

Doubtless, delay delay delay and then postpone the implementation for another few years. Classic!

It is not like we have not had 5 years to think about where the rules are going.

Somewhere earlier I predicted this would happen. Someone has to take control and tell the teams what is going to happen. Consensus management such as this will never work and the teams know it.

[wnut]

Originally Posted by Casper

Somewhere earlier I predicted this would happen. Someone has to take control and tell the teams what is going to happen. Consensus management such as this will never work and the teams know it.

It is really disappointing to see the same games being played that got the formula into the current mess. Guess Liberty and their employees just don't have the internal fortitude to stand up to the manufacturers and make the decisions necessary to protect the sport.

[chillibowl]

i used to think that these delays resulted in shorter lead times and that was a benefit as the top teams now had less time to dial themselves in.

but really they just spend more money, hire more staff, use more resources and move at a faster pace...one which the smaller teams obviously cannot match.

anywho...do we know what the sticking points are and which teams are putting up the roadblocks?

[Richard C]

Originally Posted by wnut

I see the push is now on to delay the sign off on the 2021 regulations.

https://www.racefans.net/2019/05/07/...ules-sign-off/

Doubtless, delay delay delay and then postpone the implementation for another few years. Classic!

It is not like we have not had 5 years to think about where the rules are going.

This very well may be an effort to delay "years". For sure... there is no guarantee that the radical (for F1) cost capped proposal will come to be. It still can fall apart. But I have a different view on that article. As written the article has a strong story to tell without seeing it as a way to kill or delay (by years) the 2021 proposal.

The article simply talks about how the larger teams want to implement the agreement as late as possible and the small teams as soon as possible. With the disagreement being over months and not years.

Keeping the 2021 technical specs up in the air as long as possible hurts the smaller teams the most (which the article calls out). So the small teams... want the agreement signed earlier (June 2019). The large teams... want the agreement signed later (October - December 2019).

With the technical regulations up in the air, the small teams can't afford to do extensive design work if in the end... there are last minute tweaks that could invalidate earlier work. Money down the drain. Not what cash strapped teams can risk doing.

The large teams are likely driving the technical regulations, so there could be some repeat of the Mercedes situation in which a large player pushes the regulations in a direction they are already prepared to excel in. The large teams likely claim they are taking the time to "make sure we all get the regulations correct". There may be a bit of truth to that, but I expect they already know what they plan to support and just are looking to steal a march on the small teams.

Also, while I believe the cost caps are a phased implementation and maybe not tied to the signature date (or maybe it is!), the more the well funded teams can use un-capped funds today to study and design for a future 2021 cost capped car, the better for them and the worse for the current under funded teams.

Richard

[ApexTurtle]

And nobody will be able to catch up after the initial cards are shuffled. Same thing as 2014 with the jetons.

[Richard C]

Originally Posted by ApexTurtle

And nobody will be able to catch up after the initial cards are shuffled. Same thing as 2014 with the jetons.

Generally I agree with you, but never say never. Regardless, it will be a challenge for the current minnows to catch up to the current whales even in a post cost capped world. If the cost capped system broadly works, the more time that goes by, I think it could accelerate the erosion of the success of any dynasty.

In simple terms... short term, maybe not much change (on track pecking order). Long term... maybe we get what we want.

Look at the current 2019 situation. Mercedes has their act together with respect to the changes that happened this year and even historically good or well funded teams while close... remain behind Mercedes. So technical regulation changes doesn't always reorder the results on the grid.

In the end... I still very much support the proposed cost capped system. I can't speak to the 2021 technical regulations as I haven't really looked hard at what info is available yet. Broadly I expect it to be 2019 on steroids in that some will continue to get it right and other wrong. 2021 may be an interesting year, but 2022 maybe less so, etc.

Richard