It's a monster of a Grand Prix-view this week so I've had to spread it out over the opening two posts...not sure how it got this long so good luck reading through it all!
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The Formula 1 season is not even a week old and already the headlines have ranged from "The most open season in years" on Friday, to the doom and gloom of "Vettel and Red Bull dominance of 2011 returns to F1" and finally that "Lotus tyre advantage gives Kimi the edge."
Where is the truth in this wildly divergent thought process?
It a complicated question given that we have only a small sample size of one race weekend ran in mixed weather conditions on a temporary track. But like many complex question the answer probably lies somewhere in the middle.
Australia showed us that Red Bull again enjoys an advantage in terms of one lap pace. In qualifying Sebastian Vettel and Mark Webber locked out the front row and looked very comfortable in doing so. The race however showed that, just like last year, having the edge in terms of ultimate pace doesn’t offer the huge advantage that it did in previous years.
The current spec of Pirelli tyres are designed so that the faster you go the more they wear.
It seems perfectly logical that if you are going faster that you would use more rubber but after so many years of conservative tyre manufacturing it is still taking time for this thought process to sink into Formula 1. We still see the headline grabbing times in practice and qualifying and think that a 300km Grand Prix is a foregone conclusion.
The last two years, and last weekend, have showed us once again that while it is an advantage to start at the front it does not offer a guarantee of a victory. In contemporary Formula 1 it is difficult to win a race from off the front rows but it is no longer impossible to do so.
This weekend in Malaysia we will no doubt see some of the muddy waters of the opening races of the season clear and a picture start to develop over what to expect but with rain likely to fall throughout the weekend the muddy waters will have to be driven through and more questions will be asked after the flag falls on Sunday....
The Sepang international Circuit
This is the 15th Malaysian Grand Prix and in that time the Sepang circuit has established itself as arguably the toughest test of man and machinery. The race weekend will be run in high temperatures and fatigue inducing humidity that makes mistakes all too easy. The drivers will be cocooned inside their cockpits with temperatures rising so high that the fluid in their drinks bottles will evaporate. The mechanics are operating on a short turnaround after Australia and even the most fastidious of engineers can miss something through the mental and physical toll of working in the toughest conditions faced all season.
Even so Malaysia is one of the most anticipated races of the year because it tests you to your limits. Sepang has a good blend of fast and slow corners; six of the corners are taken at over 200 km/h. As a result the drivers need a car that is stable and planted in the fast corners and one that is also nimble enough to tackle the slower corners, particularly the opening section of the lap. Force India's Paul di Resta, who finished eighth in the season opener, commented about the characteristics of the track:
"I think Sepang is probably one of the most complete tracks of the season," said the Scot. "It was the very first of the new generation tracks and it has nice flowing sections, some slow bits, as well as high-speed chicanes. I think it’s one of the better tracks on the calendar. Along with the next one in Shanghai, it’s one of the tracks I enjoy."
Di Resta's use of the phrase "complete track" is key to understanding how drivers and engineers have to approach this weekend. You need to find a compromise in setup that gives you the balance needed for the very different requirements of Sepang.
Mercedes like to regard Malaysia as one of their home races due to their sponsorship by Petronas and having surprised everyone with their pace in Australia both Lewis Hamilton and Nico Rosberg will go into this weekend's race feeling good about their prospects. For Rosberg Malaysia has happy memories of his first Mercedes podium, in 2010, and the German echoed di Resta's thoughts on Sepang by saying,
"Sepang is one of my favourite tracks on the Formula One calendar. The layout has a little bit of everything with the slow and fast corners making a nice mix."
Will Lotus continue to enjoy a tyre advantage?
It wasn't a huge surprise that Lotus were kind on their tyres in Australia. Last year Kimi Raikkonen and Romain Grosjean consistently were one of the easiest drivers on their rubber and it gave them a particular advantage at various races, Bahrain and Hungary for example. The E21 seems to have brought this trait forward on the basis of winter testing and the opening Grand Prix where Kimi used a two stop strategy to claim a commanding victory. It would be very easy to say that Malaysia should exaggerate the advantage that we saw last weekend.
The race will be run in high temperatures on a very abrasive track surface so everyone will use their tyres harder this weekend. However with such different weather and track conditions this weekend we could see the Lotus suffer similar rubber woes that affected Red Bull and Ferrari in Melbourne. It will still be likely that their rivals with suffer more wear but it is unlikely that Lotus will be in a position to make one stop less than their rivals.
The wear rate of the new compounds from Pirelli and the unforgiving track surface of Sepang should be enough to nullify the advantage that Lotus enjoyed in the season opener. Speaking ahead of this weekend's race Raikkonen was keen to emphasise just how little we can take from his performance in Australia as a precursor to the rest of the season:
"It feels good but it's only after one race," commented the 2007 world champion. "It doesn't really change our aim and how we approach this year. Definitely, we are happy with the win but there is an awful lot to still to do to win the championship. We seemed to have a good car in Albert Park, so hopefully it works well in the next races also. I'm happy that we didn't really have to go full speed all the time so it's kind of a good sign, a good race for us, but as I said, it might be a completely different story in Malaysia."
With Raikkonen doing his best to keep a lid on expectations within Lotus it is still clear that the E21 is a very competitive race car and while last year the team were hamstrung by an inability to switch on the Pirelli tyres over a single qualifying lap it is likely that this should be less of a factor due to the new constructions and compounds being used this season. If the team can find a way to consistently qualify inside the top six they will be very well placed at a lot of races this season but again we are using a very small sample size of just one weekend and Melbourne showed us just how quickly opinions can change in Formula 1!
To get a better indication of how Lotus will fare in the coming races a look at Grosjean's Melbourne performance is a good place to start. The Frenchman suffered with inconsistent handling in Australia. The Frenchman was on the pace in a couple of sessions but struggled in others. While it was clear that he couldn't find the right balance in Melbourne his race shows us how difficult it is in the midfield pack this year.
While Raikkonen had the pace to lead the race Grosjean was stuck in traffic throughout the 58 lap race. This meant that while Kimi could dictate his pace and allow his times a certain amount of leeway Grosjean was constantly forced to fight and scrap with drivers around him. This meant that he was forced to change to a three stop strategy and thus negated the biggest advantage enjoyed by his teammate. In dirty air Grosjean suffered from the same tyre wear as the majority of the field. If Raikkonen, or Grosjean, are not able to hit the front in Malaysia we could see this pattern repeated and once again the headlines will change to reflect the outcome of this weekend's Grand Prix and "Lotus is pegged back." Depending on whether Lotus or at the front or in the midfield the waters will get clearer or muddier...
Red Bull and Ferrari still look the most likely winners
Australia showed us that Red Bull has once again got a stunning turn of speed. Sebastian Vettel was able to lead a Red Bull front row lockout and the ease with which he was able to open a gap at the start of stints during the race was very impressive.
However, it was not more impressive than the manner in which Felipe Massa was able to reel Vettel back in during the first half of the race. While Vettel was able to open a cushion over the Ferrari in the opening three or four laps of a stint Massa clawed the gap back over the remaining laps and was able to get very close to the Red Bull.
Australia is a track that it is difficult to overtake on and the advantage of the Ferrari merely meant that Massa was close to Vettel at the end of each stint but unable to challenge the German. Malaysia on the other hand is a wide open race track with plenty of overtaking opportunities and if the pattern is repeated this weekend the Ferrari's should be well placed to fight for the win again.
Strategy was the main outdoing of Ferrari in the last few years but in Australia they played the race perfectly for Alonso to leapfrog ahead of Vettel and Massa at the pitstops and vault into what would ultimately become second position once all the pitstops had been shuffled out of the way. Again as the race wore on the race pace advantage enjoyed by Ferrari meant that they were able to pull away and Alonso could claim a comfortable second place finish and 18 points. The Scuderia need to stay aggressive this weekend with their strategy and the key to this will be once again having a competitive Massa in the second car.
The Brazilian's performance in Melbourne was superb and even though he lost out to Alonso in the strategy game his return to form in the closing third of last season has clearly carried forward into 2013 and a podium finish this weekend is not beyond the realms of possibility. If Massa can keep his Melbourne form going this weekend he will be on his way to becoming what Ferrari need him to be this year, a perfect number two driver.
Just like his compatriot Rubens Barrichello before him Ferrari need a driver that is quick enough to keep Alonso on his toes but ultimately not to take many points away from the Spaniard. If Massa can keep doing this he will be well on his way to a new contract with the team.
Midway through last year there was a thundering chorus of dismay at Massa's performance from the tifosi but now he is justifying the faith that the team, and in particular Stefano Domenicali showed in him last year.
At Red Bull the team knows that they have the outright fastest car on the grid but they also know that they need to find a way of managing their tyres better. Christian Horner will know that there is no advantage to being fastest on Saturday if you don't take the flag first on Sunday so it will be very interesting to see how the team approaches this weekend. Do they look to ease off in terms of their ultimate pace and try and find a better compromise for Sunday or sail into the wind and look to use their speed advantage in the race. It is an interesting conundrum for the Milton Keynes based team and one that every team on the pitlane would love to be facing.
Finding a way to balance performance and longevity is nothing new in racing and just like we saw last year the team's will all understand the Pirelli tyres as the year progresses. These early season races however are when teams try various settings and strategies to find that balance as early as possible. Last year we saw teams travel down a blind alley at times and this year will see that pattern repeat itself again.
Red Bull will understand the tyres eventually but until they do their performance advantage is negated.
McLaren and Williams look to bounce back
McLaren's Melbourne misery was certainly the biggest shock of the opening weekend of the season but they were not alone in failing to live up to expectations. Williams also went to Australia with high hopes of a strong season but instead left the opening race having underperformed and struggled throughout. Both teams have a lot of work to do to get to the bottom of their respective problems but with Jenson Button already saying that
"despite getting the maximum out of the car. It's still clearly not where we want to be." It is perfectly clear that the team will be racing in the midfield for a minimum of the next couple of races.
It would be dangerous to underestimate the development team at McLaren. At various times over the last five years McLaren have shown that they are arguably the best team in the pitlane at developing their car as the year progresses. However given the recent loss of Paddy Lowe to Mercedes it will be worth noting how this year differs to previous campaigns.
Team principal, Martin Whitmarsh, will be feeling the heat this weekend, in more ways than one, and while the team will know that finding a quick fix will not be possible increasing their understanding of the car will the main target for the team this weekend. Whitmarsh emphasised this by saying:
"Clearly, our performance in Australia last weekend was not up to our high expectations," commented the Englishman. "We have been working tirelessly to bring additional performance to MP4-28. But the short turnaround between rounds one and two of the championship means that we'll arrive in Malaysia with less scope to improve our fortunes. This weekend, however, will provide us with additional opportunities to understand our car's behaviour and to increase our understanding of the package."
Both Jenson Button and Sergio Perez missed the Q3 cut off in Australia and there is little reason to expect that to change this weekend. In the past the pair has however had strong races in the past in Malaysia, particularly Perez last year, and while they will not have the pace in qualifying a wet race could give them a chance to score some points.
Rain is always on the cards at Sepang and it is ironic that McLaren, the team with the fastest car last year, is now likely praying for rain as the only chance to limit their losses in Malaysia as Jenson Button admitted:
"I don't think we can expect an improvement in our fortunes," admitted the 2009 Malaysian Grand Prix winner. "But the thing about Malaysia is that it can be so unpredictable - particularly with the later start time on Sunday afternoon, which tends to see late-afternoon showers fall. We saw that last year, when Fernando won, and we know that the unpredictable weather can make it a lottery for everyone. That's something that could play into our hands – I do enjoy driving in changeable conditions, and would love the challenge of being able to run competitively in a car that we all know is not quite capable of challenging for victories yet."
Williams also underperformed last weekend and Pastor Maldonado was very critical of the new car at various points during the weekend.
Maldonado, the winner of last year's Spanish Grand Prix, ended his race stuck in a gravel trap following a spin. He complained about the handling of the FW35 and was clearly out of sorts throughout the weekend but the team seems confident that they have gotten to the bottom of the causes of the problems and there is a belief within the team that they should start making progress in Malaysia.
Mike Coughlan, the team's technical director, spoke about this:
"Following a difficult opening to the season in Australia, the team has regrouped and been working hard to solve the problems we encountered last weekend," he said. "We have a good idea where to focus our efforts and learnt a lot in Melbourne which we will implement in Malaysia to continue working to improve the performance of the FW35 throughout Friday testing and into the weekend."
Having missed the opening four days of testing in Jerez-Williams used an interim car rather than the 2013 model-the team is clearly behind the rest of the field in terms of their understanding of their package. It is hard to lose one-third of your pre-season running and expect to hit the ground running in the opening race of the season and Williams showed that simulators and various tools are no substitute for on track running. It will be difficult for the team to fight with Sauber and Force India this weekend but with a three week break until the third round of the season they should be back in the midfield running by the Chinese Grand Prix.
Continued in post #2