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I think the likelihood of either Vaulkhard or Chilton becoming champion depends a little bit on machinery.
Matt Neal is a case in point - he had family backing to fund strong challenges on the title and with a car as capable as the Integra underneath him, he became champion. I can see a situation where Chilton could replicate this feat - either if the Focus can improve as much this season as it did last, or if the first Arena/AON (or other team he's driving for) NGTC car is quick out the box.
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