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Originally Posted by gert
I think it's best to stick to the facts and leave the 'wishing' part aside. We've had tons of lists in the past that were based on partial facts, partials wishes and partial fantasy and they weren't always received very well. Especially when there was no basis for something that was presented as 'fact'.
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You're mixing up "silly season" with just "season".
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I can't see Renault go for Ocon and Gasly. I'd guess that they want to keep at least one of the current drivers aboard, just for the sake of continuity.
If Ricciardo were to move up, I think they'd keep Hulkenberg after all.
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I agree, that would be better for Renault and Gasly would go to Haas (he's too good a driver to just let him leave F1), but I expect they shut that door themselves in relation to Hulkenberg.
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I can't see de Vries at Williams either, unless he brings a lot of sponsorship dollars. Unless Frits van Eerd opens his pockets, that chance seems slim.
If not Kubica, then maybe Latifi?
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Is he F1 material? The F1 grid is getting stronger the last few years. I'm not sure on the 2nd Williams seat.
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Despite all the Red Bull - Vettel rumours, I can't see that actually happen.
Seb's chances at success at what is essentially Max' team aren't really that better than at Ferrari I'd think.
The questions here are probably:
* What does Vettel still want to achieve?
* Does he have a contract for 2020 at Ferrari, and who is going to pay if he wants out? Would Red Bull be prepared to do that?
It all seems unlikely to me, but of course stranger things have happened.
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It is easier to accept a role as an experienced veteran 2nd driver who takes the occasional win in a new team than in a team where your status as the No1 driver is history, tricks are being played and there is the always present "Ferrari pressure".
Vettel seems to crack under pressure the last few years, especially in a car not handling the way he wants. What can he do to change that situation?
- Get away from the "Ferrari pressure" and trying to do the "Schumacher thing".
- Get away from having the pressure of having to compete for team status while tricks are being played. There's less pressure when you go to a team as second driver and take a surprising amount of wins (because you're a damn good driver and RB will probably fully compete for the WDC next year) than being in the Ferrari/Leclerc situation. Hack, if Verstappen starts missing the beat (not likely), there might even be chance he'd become a bit of a dark horse and have a freak shot at a fifth title.
- Get in a car that better suits you.
All three changes can be accomplished by switching to Red Bull if he can make the mental switch. Loose "the finger" and enjoy racing in a top level car like Raikkonen did at Ferrari.
For the contractual/financial angle. I expect that if Ferrari and Vettel conclude that this shouldn't continue like this, an agreement can be settled upon. Ricciardo is a better choice for Ferrari and Vettel is the better choice for Red Bull (again if he can get his head around it). Both teams can take the fight harder to Mercedes. It would be close but Mercedes would have the weakest line up of the three.