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Updating probabilities of title (using simulations with current data) after Mugello:
Moto3
ACO 79%
MAS 3%
SAS 3%
GAR 2%
FEN 2%
Moto2
GAR 54%
FER 33%
BEZ 8%
LOW 2%
DIG 1%
MotoGP
QUA 62%
ZAR 10%
BAG 9%
MIL 6%
MIR 4%
VIN 3%
AESP 1%
BIN 1%
Acosta has a huge advantage but the title is not in his hands yet. He has 4/5 probability and the rest has collectively 1/5.
Gardner and RFernandez have 87% probability of title, and together with Bezzecchi they add to 95%. Those three will fight for the title. IMO Lowes is busted already: he would have to overcome all of those three to get the title.
Fabio is obviously favorite in MotoGP, but actually the race for the title is still pretty open, with 6 riders still with some possibilities. Quartararo has approx 2/3 probability of getting the title but "Rest of the World" still has approx 1/3 probability.
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