[Schummy]

Update after Italy, with only 7 races to go.

GAP ANALYSIS

For title:
-----Gap ORG
HAM 284
BOT -63 23.8
VER -99 37.4
LEC -102 38.6
VET -115 43.5

For 2nd:
--- Gap ORG
BOT
VER -36 13.6 (~6%)
LEC -39 14.7 (~5%)
VET -52 19.7 (<1%)

For 3rd:
--- Gap ORG
VER
LEC -3 1.1 (~50%)
VET -16 6.1 (~18%)

I have extended a bit the analysis to add the fight for 2nd and 3rd positions... mostly because the title hunt is not very exciting, due to the prevalence of Hamilton (and Mercedes).

For title there is just the slightest hope for Bottas.

For runner up, Bottas is favorite, of course but Verstappen and Leclerc has a (difficult) chances, that I evaluate aprox about 5-6%. Vettel has also a chance but, according to past results, is a lot harder.

For third, there is an expected hard fight between the no-mercs drivers. Verstappen and Leclerc are virtually tied and Vettel still has a sizeable chance (if his brain finally engages... ).