According to the gaps in the last post, it is possible to estimate the probabilities of each rider to overtake any other rider at the end of the season.
The next tables show those probabilities. For example, Canet has a 97% of probabilities of beating Antonelli at the end of the season; Navarro has a 72% of probabilities of beating Schroter.
Code:
DLP CAN ARB ANT RAM MCP VIE MAS
DLP -- 52 87 98 99 100 100 100
CAN 48 -- 91 97 100 100 100 100
ARB 13 9 -- 51 73 86 86 78
ANT 2 3 49 -- 74 83 89 82
RAM 1 0 27 26 -- 51 56 59
MCP 0 0 14 17 49 -- 52 63
VIE 0 0 14 11 44 48 -- 57
MAS 0 0 22 18 41 37 43 --
MAR LUT NAV FER BAL SCH BIN MAR
MAR -- 92 96 98 94 100 100 100
LUT 8 -- 66 78 72 87 86 96
NAV 4 34 -- 55 57 72 76 86
FER 2 22 45 -- 61 63 68 80
BAL 6 28 43 39 -- 46 55 61
SCH 0 13 28 37 54 -- 55 79
BIN 0 14 24 32 45 45 -- 55
MAR 0 4 14 20 39 21 45 --
MAR DOV PET RIN ROS VIÑ QUA MIL CRU
MAR -- 98 100 100 100 100 100 100 100
DOV 2 -- 95 98 100 99 100 100 100
PET 0 5 -- 77 96 93 100 100 100
RIN 0 2 23 -- 79 79 94 96 100
ROS 0 0 4 21 -- 54 63 78 89
VIÑ 0 1 7 21 46 -- 60 68 85
QUA 0 0 0 6 37 40 -- 57 69
MIL 0 0 0 4 22 32 43 -- 58
CRU 0 0 0 0 11 15 31 42 --
Moto3:
Dalla Porta has a meager 52% against Canet. The only other rider who has small but somewhat reasonable probability of dethrone DLP is Arbolino (13%). Interestingly, Arbolino has less possibilities against Canet (9%). The positions from 3rd onward are pretty undecided. From Arbolino to Masia (atleast) they can permute freely their positions at the end of the championship.
Moto2:
Marquez dominates clearly the situation. Even Luthi has only 8% of probabilities to overcome Alex. It's noteworthy that Balda´s chances are almost equal a Luthi's (even if he is currently 5th in the championship!).
However, from Luthi to the rest of the main riders, they are still mostly undecided about the final positions in the championship, from 2nd onward, although Marini, for example, has a reduced probability of becoming 2nd in the season.
MotoGP:
Marquez, Marquez, Marquez. The probabilities for his title are overwhelming. Only Dovi has a hint of minimal possibility (2%). In turn, Dovi has big chances of becoming the runner-up, with a small window for Petrucci (5%). Petrucci, however, has still to fight with Rins for the 3rd position (77%-23%) and Rins, in turn, has to fight Rossi and Viñales for the 4th. The rest are pretty chaotic still in termo of who will get 5th, 6th, et cetera.
Those are probabilities gotten of actual gaps between riders and thousand of numerical simulations of possible future races, according to past performances during the season. If a maker discover a breakthrough in the rest of the season, those probabilities would be affected in some way. But even in that case, the results in the tables are pretty solid as a guideline.