A little table resuming the situation in MotoGP.
{Please, look the table below}
(Explanation:
Just to put things in context, I call "Easy" to be able to overcome the gap to leader without much difficulty (approx >10% probability). I call "Hard" when it is difficult to overcome that gap (approx <10%, but >1%). Finally, I call "Out" when it is unlikely to overcome that gap (approx <1%).
)
BIG PICTURE:
Not big news here: QUA and AESP are the only one with a "Easy" path to the title. BAG, BAS and ZAR are still in the fight but have a hard task to do. MIL, BBIN, etc, are out of the title in any reasonable sense.
FINE DETAILS: THINGS TO ACHIEVE/AVOID IN AUSTRIA
There are some fine details, though, consisting in how those riders' status can evolve in the next race. I have called it "Need to do" in the table. It means the points goal they have as a goal to achieve or avoid.
For example:
- If AESP loses 5 points to QUA, his status will change to "Hard". Obviously, it is a target to avoid specially.
- BAG is in a crossroad: he can pass to "Easy" contender or he can even pushed "Out" of the title. To achieve "Easy" status he will need to gain 22 points on QUA(!), basically he would have to win again and Fabio to have a catastrophic race. It is not easy to happen. To get out of the title, there has to be the opposite scenario: he loses 18 points to QUA (interestingly, this has happened THREE times in this season...).
- BAS and ZAR can easily get "Out" of the championship if they lose a few points to QUA. Basically they have to end the race before Fabio.
- MIL and BBIN are in a curious "zombie" situation: they are "Out" but could convert to "Hard" if they outscore QUA for a good margin. I think MIL's case is thinkable, but I don't see BBIN's case happening, it needs Fabio having a catastrophic race AND Brad getting in the podium.
In my subjective opinion, after Austria's race we could have only one or two "Easy" candidates and perhaps as few as three total candidates (from 5 now). On the other hand, if Ducati rules in Spielberg, we could end with SIX candidates!
(Sorry for this long post.)