With the ORGs (One Race Gaps) previously calculated we could estimate the probabilities of any driver beating any other driver at the end of the season. The following table shows those probabilities for each pair of drivers (one versus another). The last column is an estimation of the final probabilities to get the title.
Code:
HAM BOT VER VET LEC
HAM -- 99 100 100 100 = 98%
BOT 1 -- 69 93 100 = 2%
VER 0 31 -- 100 100 = 1%
VET 0 7 0 -- 92 = 0%
LEC 0 0 0 8 -- = 0%
For example, Bottas has 93% of probabilities of getting ahead of Vettel in the championship.
The first 5 positions in the championship are pretty much decided, except 2nd-3rd that are still to be decided between Bottas and Verstappen (69% against 31%).
Vettel is out of the final podium already, except, curiously, he has some chances of overcome Bottas (7%), but doesn't have chances against Verstappen(!). Leclerc is pretty much buried in 5th place... but, however, has a small 8% chance of jump ahead Vettel for the 4th final position.
Frankly, a bit sad for Ferrari to be "fighting" for 4th-5th, positions. At the end of the day, however, perhaps they were lucky that Red Bull chose Gassly for the weberish second Red Bull...
