After GP Austria things have evolved very differently in each category. In Moto3 Arenas has reinforced his leadership and now he is clearly the rider in all the championships with a greater chance of title. Meanwhile, in MotoGP and Moto2, the respective leaders had a bad (even nightmarish) day and now bets for the title are closer.
In the following tables, the first percentage is the estimated probability of surpassing the leader's score in the remaining season. The second one is the approximated probability of getting the title.
Code:
MotoGP
QUA 67 49%
DOV -11 3.48 29% 17%
VIN -19 6.01 20% 9%
BIN -26 8.22 14% 5%
ROS -29 9.17 12% 4%
NAK -30 9.49 11% 3%
MIL -31 9.80 11% 3%
MOR -36 11.38 8% 2%
MIR -36 11.38 8% 2%
ZAR -39 12.33 7% 1.7%
...
MMAR -52 16.44 4% 0.6%
Moto2
MARI 78 44%
BAS -5 1.58 39% 27%
MART -19 6.01 20% 7%
LOW -19 6.01 20% 7%
NAG -23 7.27 16% 5%
CAN -35 11.07 9% 1.9%
BEZ -38 12.02 8% 1.5%
VIE -42 13.28 6% 1.1%
Moto3
ARE 95 73%
MCP -28 8.85 12% 8%
OGU -30 9.49 11% 7%
SUZ -45 14.23 5% 3%
FER -52 16.44 4% 1.6%
VIE -54 17.08 3% 1.4%
ARB -55 17.39 3% 1.3%
In short:
Change of leadership in Moto2, Marini surges as new favorite and with some strength.
Arenas's leadership is above one race max score (25 points).
"Probably" the title will go to one of this riders:
("Probably" means here that ts is more probable that it happens than that it doesn't happens)
Moto3: Arenas
Moto2: Marini, Bastianini
MotoGP: Quartararo... and Dovi just enters in this part.
Riders with a reasonable probability for the title:
(It means that all of them together covers more than 90% of prob for the title)
Moto3: McPhee, Ogura and even Suzuki
Moto2: Martin, Lowes, Naga
MotoGP: Vinales, Binder, Rossi, Miller
Notable riders like Arbolino, Masia, Raul Fernandez, Bezzecchi, Navarro, Luthi... are already practically without chances.
Surprisingly, this season the unpredictability for the title in each category follows a reversed pattern in comparison with the normal pattern: MotoGP is the "craziest" and Moto3 is the most stable.
Finally, a list with the riders with the greatest (approximated) probabilities to get the title this season:
Arenas 73%
Quartararo 49%
Marini 44%
Bastianini 27%
Dovizioso 17%
Vinales 9%
McPhee 8%
Martin 7%
Lowes 7%
Ogura 7%
Now Spielberg 2nd race weekend is just starting. Will Arenas get half a hand in the title? Will Quartararo retake the domination path ... before the comeback of The Thing? Will Moto2 be centered exclusively between Marini and Bastianini?