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It’s fair to look at points totals for 2018 vs 2017 for STR and McLaren to try to come to objective conclusion, but I think looking at the end of year points is far from a realistic picture of 2018. It just doesn’t tell the full story.
First off, the 2017 Renault was much better than the 2017 Honda. That’s really not saying much, but that sets the stage for the start of 2018.
So between 2017 and 2018, Honda was deep in the throws of trying hard to get their act together. They were focusing on reliability for the start of 2018, but also trying to solve performance issues as well. They had problems they didn’t yet have solutions for, and problems that had solutions (such as bad MGU-H/turbo design) but had to carry over the 2017 solutions into 2018 until the replacement would show up mid year.
Point being, they were much more reliable, but still way back on performance at the start of 2018. So at start of 2018, positive for McLaren, negative for STR and positive for Honda. At the end of 2018, Honda had rolled out numerous improvements in both reliability and performance. Depending upon who you believe, they were either nipping at the heals of Renault or on par with them. So maybe parity or nearly so between McLaren and STR on the power unit front. STR was also hampered by them trying a lot of early aero ideas with the focus on 2019 (I believe this was publicly reported or at a minimum rumored.) some of that just didn’t work out. The focus at STR was first on 2019 (support Honda development, and try 2019 aero stuff) and second the 2018 championship. So of course 2018 was going to be worse for STR “overall”.
The real story was that someone was going to have to gamble with Honda. And part of that gamble was to have a likely sucky 2018 with the hopes of a good 2019. McLaren said “No”, had a better 2019, but are maybe privately looking longingly at the reborn Honda and wondering “what if...” Red Bull, said “Yes”, sacrificed STR for a semi-sucky, but not terrible 2018. Now both STR and RBR are looking at least hopefull for 2019 and beyond. The related question is can Renault make big jumps or are they stuck with Honda maybe having passed by them???
The other problem with trying to look at 2017 vs 2018 as a Honda vs. Renault comparison is that it ignores everything else that was going on with those two teams. Large changes with drivers, constant work to improve poor cars, etc. Too many changing variables to make significant conclusions IMHO.
And as always... we are just one race into the season, so no counting of Honda eggs just yet! I am optimistic, but also not willing to place bets yet either.
Richard
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