Very interesting post and analysis, thanks!
In my opinion, what is really strange is that the LMP1-P don't manage to be a bit faster than they are.
Your analysis shows how much they have improved since the beginning of the year, but they are still too close to the lmp2 field, if you think that they should have nearly 150 hp more.
Let's take Rebellion example. Basically, the car should be very similar to the Oreca 05 that KCMG has run the whole year.
Anyway, i don't expect it to have worst aero performance. For the sake of this analysis, let's say the are the same, only difference being the engine.
If Rebellion really has something in the region of 650hp (which is what i heard as well), how can they be only 2-3 s faster than KCMG?
I did some simulation using the data provided by Perrinn and assuming an engine with 650hp.
It shows that the gap to the LMP1-H should be smaller than it really is.
I will publish something in my Blog about this study (
https://drracing.wordpress.com/), as soon as i have some time to write.
But in my opinion it shows that, from a pure performance perspective (so ignoring reliability issue for a moment, although they probably have been a major point), something doesn't match.
For example, do the LMP1-P teams get "development" tires as the big guys? Can we assume them being better than the Dunlop used by the LMP2 field?
SMP racing claimed they had a big step forward switching from the "commercial" Michelin to the Dunlop, for example. I don't know what Michelin supplies to LMP1-P guys.
And, maybe the most interesting question here, do the LMP1-P engines really have 650hp? Looking to your analysis and the results i got, i personally doubt it.
An LMP2 (even an old one, like a Morgan) with 650hp would probably be faster than Rebellion, once the team has set it up properly.