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Originally Posted by Casper
I have always thought hybrids were a stop gap measure and had a short life cycle as a concept. Those of us who live in the more remote parts of the world realize the BEV's simply can't work and in the foreseeable future won't. In our metro areas and major highways they will but not out in the bush. The obvious solution to that is the range extender concept but that idea seems to have been ignored so far. In fact you could say that for the majority of the world BEV's are impossible and yet the major brands are saying they are abandoning the rest of the world by not planning any production of ICE's at all. It is obvious that ICE's will be needed but on present plans published it is hard to see who is going to build them. For the densly populated parts of the world BEV's are absolutely the future and there is no avoiding that.
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By 2030, ~60% of the world population will live in cities. Let's say that a conservative 15% of the remaining 40% who live in rural areas (especially in the developed world) can still use BEV's, you're looking at 75% of the world population that could use BEV's (not talking about if there is enough raw material for that or if the infrastructure will be there yet in 2030, so yes it will be lower).
All in all, I don't see a solid argumentation for the statement that from 2030 onwards for the majority of the world BEV's won't work.
For the other 25% and for the part of the world and for those for whom the raw materials will not be made available, synthetic fuels would have a far larger environmental impact than any multimillion hybrid F1 tech. The same goes for range extenders, synthetic fuels are relevant for those, F1 current engines won't be.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Casper
As far as F1 goes I think they are between a rock and a hard place with nowhere to go. The next PU has to go into the mid 30's and by that time ICE will be the mainstream and not the oddity. No one has the crystal ball to say what will happen but in 5 years time they will introduce a PU for the next ten years and that is a lead time of 15 years to the end of that decision that is going to be made shortly. It certainly does not sound like a decision that can be made now.
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If the ICE will be still be the most used power source it will be cheap and simple engines, because of cost, RAW materials availibility, maintainability or infrastructure reasons. Synthetic fuels will be relevant for those engine's. F1's hybrid tech won't be because it's the exact opposite for what is required for those uses.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Casper
The idea of going back to ICE with no turbo is purely fantasy of course so not worth discussing.
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"of course" is not a substitute for argumentation.
Turbo's have pro's and con's just like any other technology. Efficiency is an advantage, total engine size is (although a V10 or V12 can be built very compact and light as well). Complexity, sound and driveability wise atmospheric has clear advantages.