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I would think that anyone with less than 300 points isn't a contender even if they won 4 races (half the remaining ones).
However with the two double points races an outsider could carry it over to the final race. What is notable is that Ganassi has really struggled this year and that wins over the first 8 races have been remarkably widespread.
Hunter-Reay, Carpenter, Power, Pagenaud, Castroneves, Huerta.
That's a wide spread of winners and in Houston little more than 1.4 seconds covered the entire field. that would make Indycar the most competitive field in any major open wheel formula anywhere so its a bit of a lottery in any road race.
Ovals are a little more predictable.
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