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alc59: sorry for not replying before (-_-)'
I have used this procedure since years ago, in F1 and in MotoGP, to get an idea about how the championship was going in realistic terms. The method has worked nicely.
Retrospectively, I applied it to older WDCs too; the most striking case is Raikkonen's title in the (in)famous McLaren self-debacle (Alonso-Hamilton). Kimi was in the edge of being statistically "discarded" and yet got the title in an extraordinary set of circumstances. Actually, it is not a rare event considering the whole picture of F1 history. There have been 69 seasons, so is probabilistically reasonable that a "rare" championship happens.
(Gore details:
More concretely, Raikkonen was at the 1% chance point and however he got the title. What is the probability of not getting any 1% event-championship in 69 seasons? Applying a binomial distribution that probability is 50%! Thus, is very reasonable to have such an exceptional event as Kimi's title.)
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