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Old 4 May 2012, 20:06 (Ref:3069472)   #1
Schummy
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Monotonous or plural seasons?

Some seasons are dominated by one driver and become monotonous in the sense of the winner of every GP is very predictable. Even two dominant drivers (example: Prost-Senna) can be monotonous in this respect.

Other seasons are very entertaining because there are a lot of race winners, making unpredictable the outcome of future races.

So, I have tried to make a sort of "Contenders Index" showing how many race contenders there is regularly in a given season. In fact, I am sorry to say, I have done two Index, brightly named CIX1 and CIX2. A CIX values of 3, for example, would mean there are about 3 regular contenders for race wins. It is the equivalent to have three drivers who wins all the races, in the same proportion.

The minimum value is CIX = 1, and it means the terrible scenario where one driver wins every race. Maximum value is N = number of drivers competing in the season. LOL, this maximum value is just a theoretical possibility!

I have done the calculations for the last decade:

Year WC CIX1 CIX2 NW Wins
2011 VET 2.68m 3.35m 5 11,3,3,1,1
2010 VET 4.16p 4.75 5 5,5,4,3,2
2009 BUT 4.18p 5.10p 6 6,4,2,2,2,1
2008HAM 4.33p 5.43p 7 6,5,2,2,1,1,1
2007 RAI 3.47 3.88 4 6,4,4,3
2006 ALO 3.00 3.67 5 7,7,2,1,1
2005 ALO 3.11 3.81 5 7,7,3,1,1
2004 SCH 2.22m 2.61m 5 13,2,1,1,1
2003 SCH 5.25p 6.30p 8 6,2,2,2,1,1,1,1
2002 SCH 2.06m 2.60m 4 11,4,1,1

CIX1 = Index based in statistical properties.
CIX2 = Index based in entropy.
NW = Numbers of winners in the season.
Wins = Number of wins of each winner, in the season.

I have added "m" or "p" to some CIXs, "m" means a "monotonous" season and "p" a "plural" season. Those adjectives have been chosen according to CIX values, in a way more or less reasonable:

CIX1 < 3 : monotonous
CIX1 > 4 : plural

CIX2 < 3.5 : monotonous
CIX2 > 5 : plural

Monotonous seasons: 2002, 2004 and 2011 (in this decreasing order)
Plural season: 2003, 2008 and 2009 and perhaps 2010 (decreasing order)

2003 was the season with Williams's Montoya and Ralf getting very good results and having 8 race winners!

2008 was the Hamilton title and 2009 was the Button-Brawn season.

The simple "number of winners in a season" is not enough to characterize a season. For example, 2007 was the season with less winners (4), but those 4 drivers fought equally for race wins, however 2004 and 2011 had 5 race winners but were very monotonous because the dominant driver won a big part of races.

This season is heading in a good direction in this respect. Let's hope we will see a classic drama with many first actors.
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