Not very big changes in Valencia 2... except the very unfortunate injury in Lowes's wrist.
Probabilities of title, according to simulations with past results (also the gap to the leader):
Moto3:
ARE 73%
OGU 20% -8
ARB 7% -11
Moto2:
BAS 84%
LOW 13% -14
MARI 3% -18
BEZ <1% -23
MotoGP:
MIR 100% LOL
Obviously, those cold numbers don't take in account Lowe's wrist status. So I expect a lower probability, if he doesn't heal in these few days.
Arbolino still has a shot to the title; actually I am a bit surprised that his probs are so low, because 11 points in Moto3 happen in the blink of an eye.
Bez's probs are negligible ... but if BAS somehow crash and with an injured Lowes and a ghostly Marini, who knows, he has to recover just 5 points to Luca. I think I see Marini less likely than Bez. At the end of the day it is a championship that is up to Bastia.
I have to say Mir is a very solid candidate for title in Portimao
If I had to make my choice for the fastest rider along the season in each division, I would go with Morbidelli, Lowes and Arenas/Fernandez, with close company by Quartararo(!) and Marini. It doesn't detracts anything from Mir because he won the title with the official and traditional scoring that everybody admits. Moreover I feel happy for Mir, Davide Brivio and Suzuki, I think it is good for the sport. Bravo! ... or Brivio!
