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Old 12 Aug 2020, 23:38 (Ref:3995065)   #14
Schummy
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Schummy has a real shot at the podium!Schummy has a real shot at the podium!Schummy has a real shot at the podium!Schummy has a real shot at the podium!Schummy has a real shot at the podium!
After the Silverstone-II race:

Code:
HAM  mer[107]
VER  rbr 30  10.6   9%
BOT  mer 34  12.0   8%
LEC  fer 62  21.9   2%
NOR  mcl 69  24.4   1%
ALB  rbr 71  25.1   1%
Really only Verstappen and Bottas are in the race against Hamilton. Even those two have it difficult because their probabilities of over scoring LH are less than 10%. Moreover, Hamilton has the "helpful help" of RedBull and Merc's clever strategists (suggestion: RB ones should be employed by Ferrari, particularly for Sebastian).

Leclerc has still a thin line of life but supposedly for a short time. Norris nominally has also a microchance. Albon... well, no, no more drivers with microchances.

Tasks for next GP:
- Verstappen and Bottas need to recover at least 2 points to not get a worse probability against LH. Leclerc needs 4 points to recover against Hamilton.
- To be worthy contenders (>10% probability) Verstappen needs to get back 4 points from LH. Bottas needs 8 points. The rest of drivers cannot be contenders even winning the race and Hamilton doing a Vettel.

In terms of Teams Championship, Ferraris is already out (<1%), while RedBull is still in the race, with a OneRaceGap of 23.7. Can RedBull gets 24 points over Mercedes in one race?It is hard to achieve, but it would be thinkable.
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