Crude estimations of winning in next race:
HAM 44%
BOT 28%
VER 20%
LEC 6%
NOR 2%
They have been calculated by mean of a clever combination of races and qualifications results... well, not so clever at all.
According to these estimations, the following table shows the future number of wins in the remaining 8 races (Expected, Probable and Possible, "possible meaning in a 95% probability).
Code:
%W Expected Probable "Posible"
HAM 44% 3.52 3 or 4 1 to 5
BOT 28% 2.24 2 or 3 0 to 4
VER 20% 1.60 1 or 2 0 to 3
LEC 6% 0.48 0 0 to 1
NOR 2% 0.16 0 0
On another side, looking not to the wins but to the race classifications, Hamilton has beaten VER, VER, LEC and NOR 4-1 by now. But it means that each one of those has a 14% chance to end the season beating LH
if they were in a similar level of performance from now on.