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STR with a Renault PU has been a solid midfield team. Next year McLaren is likely to jump into the top 10, and Renault (the team) will no doubt continue their progress. So the top 10 could be filled with Merc, Ferrari, RB, McLaren and Renault. Not much room for smaller privateers to score points. On top of that, STR's direct competitors will all be powered by 2018 Mercedes or Ferrari PUs. Honda need to make big improvements to get close enough. Add a bit underwhelming driver lineup to the mix, and it could be their worst season for years.
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