Quote:
Originally Posted by EffectiveSprinkles
They had no idea about the actual odds, that's impossible. How many times do racing teams get caught out by rain? It's at the moment completely impossible to predict to the minute when actual rain is going to hit the track, let alone determine if enough of it will hit for inters to be needed. You vastly overestimate the predictableness of very localized weather.
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Indeed, there's absolutely no way to predict when rain is very likely to happen. You couldn't, for example, give it down to a percentage. That's just fiction!
You vastly underestimate the advances in weather technology in only the last 2-3 years. With the latest satellites capable of servicing smaller businesses rather than requiring government level budgets, there have been massive gains in the hyperlocal weather reporting. Dark Sky and Weather Underground both have bespoke systems that can take your GPS location and give you a notification to a smartphone when it's about to rain. There's probably loads more systems too - these are just two public ones which do an incredible job of hyperlocal reports and notifications. They're pretty popular with cyclists and runners trying not to get caught in rain.
There is at least 1 WEC team who places spotters around the circuits and uses smartphones for the notifications, knowing someone on the south (for example) will get the notification before someone in pit lane. If WEC teams are doing it, then F1 teams are all doing it, and Ferrari tried to be smarter than everyone else and weren't. They all knew the odds, just Ferrari took the risk of everyone else being wrong.