The last update I did was after 12 GPs, and now, 5 GPs later, we have a not very different picture even if Leclerc "won" 4 out of the last 5 qualifications.
The median lap time gap between them is now a 0.15 advantage for Leclerc in qualifications and 0.02 for Vettel in races. But both quantities are not significant, that is they could be the opposite sign just by chance.
This is the list of gaps from the beginning of the season (positive means Vettel is faster):
Code:
QUAL RACE
+0.25 +0.02 1
-0.30 -0.63 2
+0.02 +0.31 3
+1.43 +1.13 4
+0.32 +0.06 5
+1.20 +inf 6
+0.68 +0.01 7
-0.54 -0.83 8
-0.66 -0.24 9
-0.62 -1.73 10
-inf +inf 11
-0.03 +0.05 12
-0.52 -0.60 13
-0.15 -2.32 14
-0.22 +0.04 15
-0.46 -inf 16
+0.19 +1.97 17
---------------
-0.15 +0.02
Is there a trend in qualifications? A strike of 9 consecutive "wins" is very rare to be gotten just by chance between two equally fast competitors. It is like getting 9 consecutive heads flipping a coin. Is Japan the end of that trend or just a random glitch? We will have to see the next GPs.