Before the FranceGP and after the first 4 races, I, being a boring person, just wanted to make a calculation of "probability of getting the title", according to the current points situation. The (approximate) results for the three categories are:
(First number is the point gap, second number is "one-race-gap", third number is the approximate probability.)
Code:
MotoGP
BAG 33%
QUA 2 0.5 27%
VIN 16 4.1 8%
MIR 17 4.4 8%
ZAR 18 4.6 7%
MIL 27 7.0 4%
AESP 31 8.0 3%
MOR 33 8.5 2%
RIN 43 11.1 1%
Code:
Moto2
GAR 32%
LOW 3 0.8 24%
FER 6 1.5 18%
BEZ 13 3.4 10%
DIG 17 4.4 7%
ROB 38 9.8 2%
CAN 39 10.1 1%
VIE 43 11.1 1%
Code:
Moto3
ACO 75%
ANT 51 13.2 3%
MIG 53 13.7 3%
FEN 55 14.2 3%
MAS 56 14.5 2%
BIN 59 15.2 2%
SAS 62 16.0 2%
The basic supposition is things will continue without any disruption in current performance of makers (or less likely, teams and riders). An example of possible disruption is Marc Marquez really getting back to form.